It's time for ESPN's NBL Player Power Rankings after Round 3 - let's get straight into it. For a primer on our unscientific methodology, we detail it in last season's edition.
Kevin Lisch drops out due to injury.
Bubbling under...
...the vaunted top 20 is a group that includes LaMelo Ball. Has he been MVP-like, as was suggested in some corner before the season? Hardly. But that should not be how he is assessed - he's still a neophyte in his developmental arc.
The passing vision is fine. Perhaps what stands is actually the repertoire of passes he can make -- in part due to his size -- that include one arm slings that can evade the clutching hands of a defender. Beyond the passing highlight reel though, there is a ghastly subtext. The Hawks are bad, but they're less bad when Ball is off the court.
Ball's shooting percentages are subterranean. He's a tick above 36 percent from the field overall from 66 shot attempts in five games. He is now at a frigid 12.0 percent from beyond the arc, and thrown up 25 attempts.
On defence, he tends to drift and that's not helping his team. Via jordanmcnbl.com, after three rounds, Ball is a minus-9.2, per 36 minutes, when he is on the court. When he's off, the Hawks are minus-4.1.
Instead of real impact upon winning, most are looking for signs that translate to his future success in the NBA. He will be spoon-fed minutes and touches to help him along that quest.
More seriously looking to break into, or return to, the top 20 at this stage include the likes of Eric Griffin, Damian Martin, Corey Webster and Jae'Sean Tate.
Tate has been a monster in the way he has been able to shift people around with his girth. Bodies reel away in collisions with him as though he is made of granite. He very well could be.
Tate does not have the raw numbers to wow you -- that's partly because of the Kings' depth -- but he plays with a prolonged frenzy, on both ends of the court. He plays the right way.
Corey Webster might appear to be a big-name omission, but there's more to basketball than just shooting the ball. Webster's individual offensive gifts have never been questioned but his desire to share the ball and knuckle down and play team-oriented defence has been. Defensively, he was more attentive to start NBL20 over the weekend, but that continues to be a work-in-progress. He still gets caught on screens far too easily; on two such occasions on Friday night, it led to a straight-line drive to the hoop for Didi Louzada (who missed a layup) and an easy finish at the rim for Jordan Hunter.
Griffin is an interesting one. The physical tools, the supreme athleticism should automatically vault him into top 20 contention. Yet until a breakout 22 point, 6 rebound game against the Bullets, Griffin has largely struggled to impose his sense of style consistently into a full game. Exhibit A: The opening two possessions against the Hawks showcased his stunning athleticism that culminated in a steal and transition finish, followed by swatting a Josh Boone shot against the backboard. Yet he struggled to impose himself thereafter, seemingly floating in and out of the contest.
20. Scotty Hopson (New Zealand Breakers)
Last week: 20
Hopson clings to a top 20 spot. Sure, he can score. Fine. I get it. He can jump too. He scored 27 points, boosted by some empty calories in the final quarter -- he scored 14 in the final frame -- on Friday night against the Kings with rim-attacks, showcasing his athleticism and the way he seems to glide on the court. It looks effortless when he runs. That's great.
In the return bout, he had 13 points (5-of-22 from the field) and seven rebounds. That's not great but he has shown he is a willing passer. But Hopson's shaky effort on the defensive end mirrors the shakiness of his organisation's retention efforts. I'm not sure he plays winning basketball. Per jordanmcnbl.com, Hopson is a minus-10.8 per 36 minutes for the season so far, after two games against the Kings.
His application towards defence is spotty (at best), characterised by half-hearted reaches that whiff, a maddening habit of turning his back on his assignment for no reason, and offering zero -- ZERO -- help defence. His natural inclination is to turn and watch the action unfold, and lurch forward as a possible cherry-picking opportunity arises.
For someone with such physical gifts, Hopson's wavering attention to defence can be frustrating; he could easily dominate on that end. His steal of Craig Moller and the resultant dunk in the third quarter on Sunday was an example of what he can do. We just want to see more of that.
19. Cameron Oliver (Cairns Taipans)
Last week: unranked
Oliver has provided the league with precious highlight reel material by cramming anything within reach. But more importantly, he is 8-of-19 from three-point range (that 4-of-5 performance against the Wildcats helped) to start the season. In my season preview, I questioned his proficiency from deep. I was wrong. Please, keep shooting those, Cam!
He sports a 67.4 true shooting percentage, good for sixth in the league for those who have logged at least 50 minutes for the season, via Spatialjam.com.
His versatility has allowed Mike Kelly to pair him at times on the court with Nate Jawai for a physical frontline.
18. D.J. Newbill (Cairns Taipans)
Last week: 18
Newbill's offensive exertions were controlled during the Taipans' detonation of the Wildcats on Friday night, on the way to an efficient 11 points - he also had 4 assists.
It was on the other end of the court where he shined, with his sterling defence helping to hold Bryce Cotton to 14 points for the game, after the Wildcats talisman had 11 points by the first quarter.
Newbill was a calming influence whenever Machado took his rest.
17. Jerome Randle (Adelaide 36ers)
Last week: 16
Randle personified the snarling, pugnacious psyche that enveloped the 36ers roster in their twin wins over the Bullets and Hawks across the round.
So far in his return to Adelaide, Randle has largely spurned the iso-ball play that characterised his last stint in the league. He is running the show, and when he does feel the need to break out the handles to look for his own shot, he's largely redistributed those shot attempts to the paint, or beyond the arc.
Still, Randle likes nothing more than a pull-up midrange. He will vie with Lamar Patterson for the official title of Midrange Savant by the end of the season.
16. Scott Machado (Cairns Taipans)
Last week: 19
Machado is hurtling up this list at the same speed as he does rollicking to the rim in transition. He was the maestro pulling the strings as the Taipans tasted victory for the first time in NBL20 on the way to 18 points, 7 assists and 5 rebounds.
After that stirring 99-76 victory -- a pancaking of the Wildcats in Perth -- Machado is now 8-of-16 from deep for the season. Is this real? Can he sustain this?
15. Mitch McCarron (Melbourne United)
Last week: 15
On Sunday, McCarron had defensive possessions against Terrico White, Bryce Cotton and even Nick Kay. In one sequence in the first quarter, he literally defended all three within the span of a few seconds as the Wildcats churned through their offence.
Some of those manifested through in-possession switches; some through semi-transition. The point is, United never had to engage into crisis rotations because it was McCarron. You get the picture.
Applying the same 50-minute threshold via Spatialjam.com, McCarron sits fourth in the league in true shooting at 71.2 percent. He is so damn unselfish that you wish he sought his own shot a little more often.
14. Aaron Brooks (Illawarra Hawks)
Last week: 17
Emotions can seem to override Brooks' play. With a minute remaining in the first half against Phoenix, Matt Flinn called for the substitution of Brooks. At the time, he had 5 points, 3 assists and 3 turnovers (2-of-6 from the field) and 2 personal fouls
Brooks trudged off the court, head bowed, before finally slumping into his seat, disconsolate, unresponsive to any comforting words. He ultimately still fouled out, but did score 23 points on 18 shots, including a breakthrough from beyond the arc (4-of-8). The Hawks need him on the court to finish games.
On Monday night, he roasted Adelaide - he had 19 points by the half - for 31 points on 19 shots as the 36ers seemed to forget that Brooks is a fast human and likes to drive right and squirm into the lane. Brooks still had 4 fouls.
13. Daniel Johnson (Adelaide 36ers)
Last week: 13
Johnson ambled his way to a ho-hum game of 16 points (4-of-8 shooting), seven rebounds and four assists against the Bullets.
That was followed by 21 points and 10 rebounds against the Hawks on Monday night. For the season, Johnson is doing most of his work inside -- he is shooting 70.6 percent from the restricted area, via jordanmcnbl.com. He has been a rock.
There is perhaps no better big man proponent in snapping his head back with the slightest of contact.
12. Nathan Sobey (Brisbane Bullets)
Last week: 12
The lethargic, meek pall that shrouded the Bullets in their first half against the 36ers spared no one. Not even the normally ferocious Nathan Sobey.
Sobey missed THREE point-blank layups for the game, shooting 5-of-16 from the field overall. On another note, he has struggled with his floater so far this season. He also needs to recalibrate his shot profile to accentuate his strengths - he's taking way too many outside shots, some outside of the flow of the offence.
Since hitting 5 three-pointers in the first half of their first game of the season, Sobey has only made another 3 attempts. He is now shooting 33 percent from deep. The Bullets defence is a mess right now, but Sobey has been largely fine in that regard.
11. Chris Goulding (Melbourne United)
Last week: 11
Midway through the final quarter in their loss to the Wildcats on Sunday, Goulding yo-yoed the ball, before nailing a step-back triple over Melo Trimble.
The next play, he dived on a loose ball, and whilst on the ground, flipped the ball to a surging McCarron who laid the ball in to make it 83-75. United ultimately lost, but Goulding is capable of those mercurial moments that can lift the energy of his team, and the crowd.
Goulding finished with 17 points against Perth, and was 4-of-9 from three-point range; he is 10-of-23 (43 percent) for the season.
10. Melo Trimble (Melbourne United)
Last week: 10
Day by day, Trimble looks more comfortable running the show for United. Trimble received some criticism in some corners before he jetted off for a pair of NBLxNBA games - he's no Casper Ware!
No, he is not. He's an entirely different type of player, and he is still growing. Trimble finished with 21 points (7-of-13 shooting overall) and 5 assists against the Wildcats.
On defence, you can see that his head is on a swivel - he does not egregiously shut off on the defensive end, waiting for the possession to swing back to play the more fun side of basketball.
9. Terrico White (Perth Wildcats)
Last week: 8
Let me be blunt. As heart-warming as it was for the Taipans to record their first taste of victory for the season -- when they seemingly could fling any shot through the basket -- the Wildcats were woeful on Friday night.
Terrico White typified that futility, scoring 15 points (6-of-17) in the home debacle against the Taipans (3-of-9 from downtown). On Sunday against United, White finished with 19 points (6-of-16) and once again struggled from deep (2-of-7). He's now "down" to 37 percent from three-point range for the season.
8. Shawn Long (Melbourne United)
Last week: 7
When you watch Shawn Long you can see his mind compute as he navigates the nuisances of a defensive possession - particularly when he is asked to be an active participant in the pick-and-roll dance - and try to simultaneously contain the ball-handler and roll/pop offensive player.
Should I come up? Do I hang back? Is there a way to both contain and dissuade a lob?
There is progress.
When an enemy shot is released, you can see him search for his mark, body them, before skying to snatch the rebound - that was something he never did as a Breaker. We're watching Long really try to meld the basics of basketball with his supreme athletic gifts before our eyes.
Offensively, he no longer cannibalises the offence. Long finished Sunday with 19 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 blocks against the Wildcats on Sunday.
7. John Roberson (South East Melbourne Phoenix)
Last week: 9
Roberson feasted against the Hawks, scoring 26 points in 11 shot attempts(!) and had 10 assists. He's 18-of-26 (69 percent) from three-point range for the season. We keep waiting for the regression - I guess shooting 5-of-9 counts?
When opponents blitz the pick-and-roll actions, Roberson is unruffled, calmly finding his teammates.
When a longer defender, like a LaMelo Ball, locks and trails, funnelling Roberson away from the three-point line, he uncorks a floater that splashes through the nylon. I am fascinated to see if more teams are more diligent in running him off the arc and forcing him to take two-pointers exclusively.
The Roberson/Creek two-man game seems unstoppable - no good choice manifests for the defence.
Oh, and Roberson plays defence.
6. Lamar Patterson (Brisbane Bullets)
Last week: 5
Brisbane's early energy against the 36ers was terrible, but through no fault of Patterson.
At times, he looked like the only option for the Bullets. They need a lot more from Taylor Braun and EJ Singler, and probably a little less Matt Hodgson in the post. Also, Cam Gliddon, please shoot the ball.
Patterson slow shuffled his way to 21 points, 4 rebounds and 6 assists. His individual play has been fine, but the Bullets are in some early trouble as they strive to nail down an identity. What are they exactly?
One thing to ask: why downsize if you don't play with a certain frenzied energy? What is the pay-off?
5. Nick Kay (Perth Wildcats)
Last week: 4
Kay tallied 15 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists -- curiously, all of his rebounds were on the offensive glass -- in that lamentable team performance against the Snakes.
On Sunday, as the Wildcats redeemed themselves with an epic road win at Melbourne, Kay again scored 15 points, but also nabbed 8 rebounds and 3 assists.
Something that won't be recorded as a precious stat but typifying Kay's game: With less than a minute remaining in a tie-game, Kay tussled with Shawn Long for a rebound, tipping the ball away multiple times from United's big man to help his team secure the possession. From the resultant scramble, he raced up court to lay the ball in.
In an earlier moment in the game, he stonewalled Long in the post, then batted away another pass to Long that led to a transition three-point make for Terrico White.
4. Andrew Bogut (Sydney Kings)
Last week: 6
Over the weekend against the Breakers, Bogut averaged 12 points, 15.5 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks. He also nabbed 2 steals on Sunday's rematch.
The Kings looked a different team whenever Bogut was on the court, orbiting him on offence, watching him control the paint and inhale rebounds simply by virtue of being around the basket. Yes, he's very tall, and yes, he concedes midrange looks - he won't even raise a hand in those skirmishes, practically inviting the opposition to take it - but you can't take away everything in a game of basketball.
The Kings' depth is enviable, but Bogut's impact is still felt. Via jordanmcnbl.com, they are plus-12.3 per 36 minutes when he is on the court - they're plus-7.3 when he's off, so they are still good.
3. Casper Ware (Sydney Kings)
Last week: 3
So um...can we start talking about Ware's shooting?
Per jordanmcnbl.com, Ware is shooting a LaMelo-esque 4-of-33 (12.1 percent) from above the break three-point attempts. He is 3-of-4 from the corners.
For the round, he threw up 18 three-point attempts and made 3 of them.
Discussing Ware's game exclusively within the prism of his shooting accuracy is a disservice to his overall game - he blanketed Corey Webster in New Zealand on Sunday - but it's also a testament to his ability to influence a contest despite his shooting struggles.
On Friday, Ware had 27 points, 4 rebounds and 5 assists (0-of-8 from three-point range) and subsisted entirely upon looks inside the arc (8-of-16) and the free throw line (11-of-12), aided by the Breakers' need to hack the Kings to prolong the game.
On Sunday, he had 17 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists and 6 turnovers(!). The Kings' defence is leading to this fast 4-0 start, and Ware is right at the head of that.
2. Mitch Creek (South East Melbourne Phoenix)
Last week: 2
Creek's game was always predicated upon rampaging to the rim; an opportunistic slash to the basket; a turbo motor that revved to the highest speeds. All. The. Time. He was frenetic.
But there is almost a surreal calmness to his game now, even when he's forced into a half-court setting, probing the defence.
His head is always up, surveying the landscape, shoulder-checking his way into the lane. He gives off the impression that he's at the height of his powers - he's manipulating the game, not the other way around. When the game grinds down, Creek injects pace into the half-court just by doing things at speed.
Hand on heart, would you trust his outside shot with the game on the line? Really? Yet his control of the game right now is absolute - he maps the floor as though it is a game in slow motion - when you consider he does not yet have what you would consider a reliable outside shot.
On defence, just forget it. Creek is essentially switch-proof. He is a bulwark in the post. He sprints back in transition defence (hi, Scotty Hopson).
Phoenix have legitimate claims to having the best player in the league when he's on the court...
1. Bryce Cotton (Perth Wildcats)
Last week: 1
...if only Bryce Cotton had not sensed the moment. If only he was not so attuned to delivering gut-punching blows in the biggest of moments.
Cotton's banked game-winner was the capstone to a 27 point, 5 rebounds and 2 assist masterclass in which he bounced back from a tepid performance against Cairns.
In one third quarter timeout huddle, Vickerman implored his team to deny Cotton any opportunity to shoot a three-pointer. United were to force Cotton into the arc, and then await the help. Anything but a three.
Yes, his final game-winning shot was a long two, but the point is that Cotton is able to manufacture a good shot no matter what defence you play - that shot-making and conversion (or drawn foul) in those high leverage moments perhaps sums up why Cotton is the best player in the league.