It feels like we're at an inflection point of the NBL season.
The top-of-the-table clash between Melbourne United and the Adelaide 36ers on Sunday afternoon was seemingly the end of the first chapter of what's been a fascinating regular season thus far. We've seen some good teams announce themselves, a few very bad teams hanging their heads in shame, and a middle class that's quite difficult to figure out.
Given nearly all teams are around the quarter mark of their respective seasons, it seemed like the ideal time to do a bit of a stock take on those that are looking like contenders, which ones are a level below, and who has a lot of work to do.
To do so, we placed each team into five tiers. It starts with those who appear closest to being legitimate title contenders, down to the group of teams who are on struggle street right now.
Tier 1 - Championship frontrunner: The best team in the league
Melbourne United
This one doesn't need too much explaining.
United has started the season 9-0, in a stretch that includes road wins in Tasmania Sydney, and a home victory against the Adelaide 36ers to cap off Round 6. 36ers head coach Mike Wells did a great job describing United ahead of their blockbuster clash this weekend: "they're organised, they're detailed, they're disciplined," he said.
Dean Vickerman is guiding an unbelievably professional outfit, that currently has the No. 1 offence (120.8 offensive rating) and No. 1 defence (99.2 defensive rating) in the NBL, so it's unsurprising they haven't lost a game yet. What's more impressive is they went into the start of the season without Chris Goulding, and have been operating without Shea Ili for the past few rounds.
It's a team led by five elite starters in Goulding, Milton Doyle, Tyson Walker, Finn Delany, and Jesse Edwards, but doesn't miss a beat when Vickerman dips deep into his bench. Five United players average double figures, and it's a team that endeavours to go 10 or 11 deep every game; when they do, the effectiveness of the unit of the floor barely changes.
Goulding is looking as elite of an offensive player as ever as a 37-year-old, Doyle has been the closer they knew they were recruiting this off-season, Edwards is currently the most effective two-way big-man in the NBL, Delany should be an early Best Defensive Player candidate, and Tanner Krebs is in the midst of a career season.
United went down the import path for the first time in a few years, and their recruiting processes saw them end up with a trio of quality, high-character, competitive players, so they deserve a ton of credit for their roster built while we're seemingly seeing an import cut every couple of days around the league.
Tier 2 - Championship contender: The best player in the league
Adelaide 36ers
The top-end talent of these 36ers probably would've been enough to have them hover around the top-four, but Bryce Cotton's greatness in this league puts them an echelon above some of the other likely-contenders.
Cotton has been the story of this team thus far, with the five-time MVP averaging career highs in both points (29.4) and assists (6.0) per game, on an extremely impressive 68.2% true shooting percentage. He has the highest usage rate of his basketball life (31%), and has used those opportunities to guide the 36ers to a 5-2 record, where they have a top-three offence and top-four defence in the league.
We've seen a leap from Isaac Humphries -- he's averaging 16.6 points per game, and has been incredibly effective on both ends -- while Zylan Cheatham is one of the league's most understated players, averaging 8.6 points, an NBL-leading 10.7 rebounds, and 4.3 assists a contest.
The 36ers have been buoyed by Flynn Cameron's breakout year, and they've shown glimpses of a free-flowing, NBA-like style offence, but we're seeing some teething that comes with learning to play alongside a high-usage player like Cotton. We've seen a substantial dip in production and efficiency from Dejan Vasiljevic, largely because it doesn't seem as though his role on this team next to Cotton is defined, and the same can be said about the 36ers' bench thus far. It's something you trust head coach Mike Wells to work through, but the next step for this 36ers team, that's already shown to be elite in some areas, is to utilise and maximise the non-Cotton players on the roster.
The other thing that keeps these 36ers a level above some of the other playoff contenders is the fact that they still have an import spot up their sleeve. How they use it is still undecided - it feels, as of now, that they may target a four-three type of forward - but adding another import-level talent to a group that's already in a good place should only make them more potent than they already are.
Tier 3 - Playoff contenders: The reliable high-floor teams
South East Melbourne Phoenix
There's something admirable about a team having an identity, and leaning the hell into it.
That's what's been most impressive about the Phoenix's 5-2 start to the season, where head coach Josh King has his team playing with immense pressure defensively -- picking up full court at all times, and being incredibly physical with opposing ball-handlers -- and then leveraging that into a free-flowing offence. If you don't have more than one capable ball-carrier, the Phoenix will swallow you up; that's the extent of the pressure they apply, and the personnel that fits their style of play.
Right now, the Phoenix have the No. 2 offence (120 offensive rating) and No. 2 defence (105.1 defensive rating) in the league, and are also the best three-point shooting team (37.1%) through six rounds of the regular season.
Nathan Sobey is playing some of the best basketball of his career -- averaging 21.7 points and 4.6 assists per game -- but it's the Phoenix's depth that's part of their superpower, because it allows them to play to their physically-demanding identity. John Brown III has been one of the best defenders in the league and the team's tone-setter, Jordan Hunter adding the three-ball to his game has been extremely useful, while you can generally trust the aggregate production you'll get from Angus Glover and Owen Foxwell every night, in what's a very democratic operation. The Phoenix leads the league in assist percentage (65.6%) and their defensive pressure has them forcing forcing their opponents into an NBL-best 18% turnover rate.
Again, the Phoenix went into the season with an established play-style and identity, and are able to use each game to get better at it, so they're ahead of other teams in that regard and it lifts their floor. Where the question lies is whether they can consistently compete with really good teams, or in playoff situations, without one more creator or initiator. As of now, it hasn't been a huge issue -- and credit to Hunter Maldonado for playing effective basketball over the last few weeks as one of the Phoenix's ball-carriers -- so you wonder if they even need to address it, but it's not a hole they want to fall into once it's too late to do something about it.
Tasmania JackJumpers
The theme of the teams in this tier is that they're both very well coached, and have an established structure in place that allows us to trust them night in and night out.
The JackJumpers are a personification of that sentiment, with Scott Roth having his team operating in a really efficient and organised manner. Like most JackJumpers teams since their inception, they're a very sound defensive unit - currently the No. 3 defence in the league, with a 108.7 defensive rating - and are more than comfortable playing at their pace, which is the lowest in the NBL. It's an impressive thing that seemingly every Roth-coached team is reliable; they guard at a high level, stay in games, and don't veer from their process, so you trust them to find a way to be in the playoff conversation. They're currently 5-3, with four of those wins coming on the road, which is a clear example of their process working, even in adverse environments.
Bryce Hamilton was an impressive find -- he's averaging 17.9 points per game -- and it still feels like he hasn't truly found his footing in the league just yet. Then, there's the team's big off-season recruit, Josh Bannan, who's slotted in seamlessly into the four-spot, averaging 14.0 points and 8.9 rebounds per game, with his creation, off-the-bounce game, and nose for the ball working well in a frontcourt with Will Magnay.
The early signs from David Johnson were very encouraging before he went down with an injury, so their offence -- which sits in the bottom-four in the league -- should hopefully see an uptick once he works his way back into the team.
Magnay playing a career-high in minutes is something worth keeping an eye on, especially considering the lack of frontcourt depth on this team. There's also the question of the below-league-average offence right now; their structure and defence will see them compete, but whether they'll have enough scoring juice to have that extra leap in them remains a question.
Tier 4: The high-ceiling teams that are hard to trust
Sydney Kings
As currently built, the Kings look like a team with a heap of talent that don't look close to understanding how to play with each other.
The process on both ends appears misguided -- or non-existent; both of which would be an issue -- where there's no sense of what they're trying to achieve or who they're looking to maximise on the offensive end, while there doesn't appear to be any connectivity defensively.
For a team with so much positional size, length, and defensive personnel, it doesn't make sense that they could be the No. 6 defence in the league, with their one elite game on that end of the floor against the 36ers in Round 4 looking mightily anomalous. It feels like a mixture of lack of chemistry and inconsistent rotations that's making it difficult for the Kings to guard as a team on a regular basis.
Offensively, there hasn't been a consistent structure -- for the last three seasons, to be fair -- with Matthew Dellavedova and Kendric Davis seemingly taking turns trying to make plays out of nothing; the league-worst 48.3% assist percentage makes sense, in that regard. Both are the highest-usage rotation players on this team, and it's not a surprise that they both have negative net ratings right now. There should be an insistence of maximising the likes of Xavier Cooks and Jaylin Galloway, but both are experiencing inconsistent usage thus far, which has led to up-and-down production. The inability, in particular, to incorporate Cooks - an MVP-level talent - in what the Kings do offensively is a major issue for Brian Goorjian's team, and significantly caps their ceiling.
Tim Soares has been one of the bright spots for the 3-5 Kings, making an impact on both ends as a reliable finisher around the rim and interior defender, and the glimpses we've seen from Galloway should give some hope that he can continue developing into that star-level player. However, until these Kings implement a cohesive offensive structure -- which should then bleed to more success defensively -- they're just relying on talent to get by, and that's not a sustainable pathway to success in this league.
Perth Wildcats
The Wildcats are another team with impressive top-end talent -- especially in the frontcourt -- but no real direction right now.
Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. has been as advertised -- 20.6 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game -- and Dylan Windler has taken an important step up, but it seems as though head coach John Rillie never really knows what his team will produce outside of those two.
The awkward guard situation has made for a ton of inconsistency on the offensive end, with no established initiator leading to poor shot quality; the Wildcats are the worst three-point shooting team in the league, at 26.8%. Import Mason Jones had his opportunity at the point and has since been cut, Dontae Russo-Nance then got his chance, and now it's Jaron Rillie, who's been solid in his minutes, but clearly isn't a long-term answer if this team actually wants to compete for a championship. Throw in the up-and-down minutes for Ben Henshall and Elijah Pepper -- which, naturally, has led to unstable output -- and the Wildcats just aren't threatening enough on the perimeter on either end to be in the upper echelon of teams. The introduction of David Duke Jr. should help in that regard, but it feels like a long shot to assume he'll be a title-defining addition.
Kristian Doolittle's counting stats have been reasonable, but the team isn't very effective - particularly offensively - when he's on the floor. The Wildcats' top-end talent is struggling to find cohesion with one another; it currently looks like a heap of individuals doing their own thing on the offensive end, and that's led to this 4-4 start to the season.
The talent alone should see the Wildcats continue to win games, but their defence is on the decline after a strong start to the season in that regard, and they have to find some consistency with the awkward logjam that exists on the perimeter if they're to be a sustainable force in the league.
Tier 5: The teams with a lot of work to do
Brisbane Bullets
The Bullets look like one of those teams with the offensive talent to win them a few games here and there, but without the depth or structure to really compete with the better teams in the league.
Of course, early injuries to Mitch Norton and Sam McDaniel have been a big factor there, but they also fell victim to some of their own recruiting errors. The release of Javon Freeman-Liberty was for reasons that were flagged prior to his arrival, while the inconsistent play and behavioural concerns with Jaylen Adams also shouldn't have come as a surprise to the team's decision-makers. Injuries, and having to play the import merry-go-round, doesn't help a team that was already entering the season with a slight talent deficit on its bench, so their 3-6 record sounds about right.
Stu Lash and these Bullets do deserve some credit, because they've been able to stay competitive, even when missing multiple players. Tyrell Harrison has taken another leap this season, averaging 16.6 points and 10.2 rebounds per game, while Casey Prather remains one of the best scorers in the league, averaging 24.3 points a contest. They've been a redeemable offensive team, putting their talent in positions to succeed, which is easier said than done. Defensively, though, they've been largely poor; the Bullets are a bottom-three defence (113.9 defensive rating), and are a bottom-two defensive rebounding team.
The introduction of Dakota Mathias will provide Lash with a helpful floor spacer, while they'll be hoping Jacob Holt can return from his hip injury to bring some much-needed frontcourt depth. Until Norton and McDaniel return, though, this Bullets team seems incomplete; without a defensive structure, which makes it difficult to see them taking that leap up to any of those higher tiers. Until they become cohesive on that end, they'll remain one of these bottom-feeders.
Illawarra Hawks
The start to the season for the Hawks shouldn't be too much of a surprise.
Justin Tatum's team lost a lot of pieces from last season's championship campaign -- including Lachlan Olbrich and Hyunjung Lee late in the piece -- and didn't adequately replace them. Will Hickey's early eye injury and JaQuori McLaughlin not being at the level meant the team effectively went from three functional ball-carriers last season, to one going into this campaign. That put extra pressure on Tyler Harvey, which makes it difficult for him to operate with any sort of efficiency.
It, of course, makes sense then that the Hawks, who don't have a heap of ball-carrying, have the highest turnover rate in the NBL (16.3%), and are currently at bottom-three offence. The teething that comes with incorporating a big-man like JaVale McGee who has some difficult guarding in space also has them with the league's No. 9 defence (117.2 defensive rating), so a 2-4 record at this point is no surprise.
McGee is an elite talent -- he's averaging 22.7 points and 10.7 rebounds per game, shooting 62% from the field -- and Tyler Harvey is also scoring at a high level (20 points per game) but it doesn't feel like this team has much cohesion. McGee is someone who excels in the half-court as a pick-and-roll or post threat, but the Hawks have the highest pace in the league, which isn't conducive to maximising the 16-year NBA veteran's skillset. We've seen Harvey and McGee appear on the same page on occasion but not with the consistency this team needs to pick up regular wins. Is there a way they can insert McGee's individual talent into a consistent offensive structure? The Harvey-McGee partnership is improving by the game, but we'll have to see how things continue to develop.
Of all the teams in this tier, the Hawks probably have the most hope to turn things around. They've played the least amount of games in the league, which minimizes the effect of Hickey's injury. His impending return -- they're hopeful he's back in Round 7 -- as well as the introduction of a professional scorer in Q.J. Peterson suddenly brings the Hawks back to three ball-carriers and creators, which should drastically improve their offensive efficiency.
Jonah Bolden has had a slow start to the season but is showing glimpses of finding his feet; once he does, and Sam Froling eventually returns around the holiday period, this team should have the bones of one that can compete on a regular basis. Being a legitimate title contender will still feel like a stretch, but their win in Perth in Round 6 seemingly gave them enough breathing room to not fall too far behind as they slowly attempt to return to their regular programming.
New Zealand Breakers
We all knew this season may be a struggle for the Breakers.
Yes, Parker Jackson-Cartwright is, and has been, elite, and Sam Mennenga's leap shouldn't come as a surprise, there's unfortunately just a talent deficit down the roster that makes it tough for them to compete in this league.
Petteri Koponen's team has the second worst offence (106.1 offensive rating) in the league, and a bottom-four defence (113 defensive rating), but the problem is trying to search for avenues for improvement as they sit at 2-7. Izaiah Brockington and Rob Baker II are probably playing right at their talent level right now, and their Kiwi-heavy depth -- while noble -- just doesn't have the offensive juice to make a meaningful impact.
Mennenga's impressive season should be noted -- he's averaging a career-high 17.5 points and 7.8 rebounds per game -- because, as a team, the Breakers are actually elite in the minutes he plays. That will help with his next contract, for sure, but there just isn't enough production through the rest of the roster to see this team win games consistently.
Led by Jackson-Cartwright, there is some structure with this team -- they seem to know how they want to play, and go through stretches of dynamic, in-rhythm basketball -- so that's a redeemable aspect for these Breakers. Their struggles will likely continue because of a general talent deficit with regard to their depth, relative to the rest of the league, so their best chance of success is continuing to up the usage of their elite guys, and hoping they can carry them.
Cairns Taipans
Unfortunately, the Taipans are right in the thick of one of the worst starts to a season in NBL history.
It's not just the tied-league-worst 2-7 record, but it's the nature of those losses. Five of their losses have been by 27 or more points, with Adam Forde's team currently on a six-game losing skid. The Taipans currently have the worst offence (96.3 offensive rating) and worst defence (119.6 defensive rating) in the NBL, and are bottom in the league in true shooting (49.3% TS).
Yes, the Taipans have been the victims of some early-season injuries to primary players in Sam Waardenburg and Jack McVeigh -- though, almost every team is experiencing important players missing time -- which is legitimate to consider, but the roster build was always suspect. The team didn't recruit adequate depth, so any injury to a starter was going to hurt them more than the same scenario would affect another team, and the decision to load up on forwards as opposed to bringing in more ball-carrying was almost guaranteed to be an issue.
The lack of ball-handling and initiating talent (bottom-two in turnover rate, at 16.0%) combined with Admiral Schofield being largely ineffective on both ends and Andrew Andrews still finding his feet in the league, has led to what's been one of the most inefficient offences we've seen in the NBL in some time.
A bright spot has been Marcus Lee's effectiveness when he's able to stay out of foul trouble -- he's averaging 9.8 points and 7.2 rebounds per game -- while we've also seen some glimpses here and there of what Reyne Smith can do as a shooter.
Still, this Taipans team doesn't look like they're built to compete with any team right now, and it feels like a long shot to think the return of McVeigh and Waardenburg is going to fix some of the more fundamental issues with how the group is operating.