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No. 5: Washington Wizards
Last Season: 46-36
5th place in East; Lost 4-2 to Atlanta in Round 2
Welcome to Durantapalooza. The Wizards have reached the playoffs for two straight seasons and already employ an MVP candidate in waiting. But make no mistake about it: Every play on the court and every droplet of 'Zards-related news this season will carry an undercurrent of, "So, what does this mean for the Kevin Durant chase?"
In John Wall and Bradley Beal, the Wizards have a young backcourt brimming with talent. But the frontcourt is a bit of a question mark, and so is the coaching staff led by the enigmatic Randy Wittman.
The team will have the max cap space to chase Durant when he becomes a free agent in 2016 and should do everything it can to lure the hometown product back to D.C. Being a title contender this season could do wonders to that end.
Following an unexpected trip to the Eastern Conference semifinals in 2014, the Wizards were poised to crash the East finals party with Paul Pierce in tow. After bursting to a 19-6 record, the Wizards struggled through the dog days of the schedule, going 3-9 in February with a worse point differential than the Philadelphia 76ers.
The offense went through long stretches of being unwatchable thanks to Wittman's infatuation with midrange jumpers at the expense of 3s. The Wizards settled for 28.9 midrange jumpers per game, the third-highest frequency in the NBA, despite shooting them at a below-average rate. With a high turnover rate to boot, the team finished with the NBA's 19th-best offense.
The Wizards took off their 3-hating mask and underwent a makeover in the postseason. After shirking the 3-pointer in the regular season, the Wizards began firing up 3s at a higher rate than the San Antonio Spurs did during the regular season. In fact, the difference in 3-point rate (as a percentage of overall field goal attempts) from the playoffs to the regular season was the fourth-largest change of any team in the past 10 postseasons.
What's most fascinating is that the three teams that saw a more dramatic change than Washington were massive underdogs in their first-round matchups. In essence, the Wizards were playing like scrappy long shots trying to carve out an edge. This was certainly the case against the top-seeded Hawks, but the 3-happy turn happened long before in a sweep of the Toronto Raptors.
In the end, the Wizards just couldn't get enough scoring punch without Wall (broken wrist) at 100 percent and found themselves ousted in the second round. Again.
This was the calm before the storm. With no significant cap space to burn in free agency and little in the way of expiring contracts, the Wizards worked on the fringes. On draft night, the team moved from 19th to 15th so it could select Kelly Oubre Jr., a wiry wing project from Kansas who would provide insurance in case Pierce left in free agency.
Indeed, the Truth ended up signing in Clipperland, leaving the small forward slot open for postseason breakout Otto Porter Jr. Not satisfied with Porter and Oubre, the Wizards traded a top-55-protected second-round pick for Jared Dudley, absorbing his contract in a trade exception once Milwaukee made it known it wanted to save some cash. The Wizards then rounded out their backcourt by inking 3-point-shooting journeymen Gary Neal and Alan Anderson to small deals.
The Wizards' sleepy offseason was expected preparation for their Durant courtship in 2016. With the exception of swapping Pierce for Dudley in the rotation, Washington will largely stick with the status quo for 2015-16. That foresight also affects negotiations with Beal, who is eligible for a contract extension that has to be consummated by Nov. 2. Perhaps because Beal's smaller cap hold would create more cap space next summer if he's a restricted free agent instead, the two sides have made little progress toward an extension.
The Washington Wizards suffered a blow in the offseason when Pierce departed to head home to Los Angeles and join the Clippers and old friend Doc Rivers. But perhaps Pierce leaves the Wizards in a better place than before he got there.
During his lone season in D.C., Pierce tried to teach Wall and Beal how to become leaders and winners. And he mentored Porter Jr. It remains to be seen how Wall, Beal and Porter will do without Pierce. But this summer, Wall and Beal took some early steps toward filling the Pierce leadership void.
"They both understand how important they are, and it is more about the team and leadership that they are both providing," Wizards general manager Ernie Grunfeld said. "They called a team workout in L.A., which we had 12 of 13 players there. John and Bradley arranged that for everybody. They're growing and showing maturity and that they're leaders of the team. And I think some of that, they learned from Paul."
The Wizards hope Porter will be able to play the stretch 4 effectively like Pierce did. And Washington added Dudley, Neal and Anderson in free agency to provide more outside shooting, defense, veteran experience and depth. -- Ohm Youngmisuk
Projected Real Plus-Minus for starters
John Wall, PG: +4.7
Bradley Beal, SG: +2.5
Otto Porter, SF: +1.5
Kris Humphries, PF: -3.1
Marcin Gortat, C: +1.6
Scouting reports on every player on the Wizards
Using shot data from 2014-15 and projected starters, Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry ranks each team's offensive efficiency based on square footage.
The speedy Wall and burly Gortat combined to hit an elite 66 percent of their shots in the paint last season.
Beal rarely ventures inside, attempting more than 60 percent of his shots from outside 15 feet. For good reason: He is deadly on above-the-break 3s (43 percent).
All About The Space: 11th (435 sq. ft. of above-average offense)
To identify players who stretch offenses the most, ESPN Stats & Info created the Kyle Korver effect -- a metric on a 1-100 scale, factoring in 3PT%, 3-point attempt rate (percentage of total shots that come from 3-point range) and influence on teammate FG%.
Korver effect: SCHOENE projects Beal (88.5) to hit a career-high 41 percent from 3, aiding a Wiz offense that ranked 22nd last season.
The biggest offseason addition may be a voice in Wittman's head telling him to believe in the 3. The Wizards' offense became much more powerful by trading long 2s for 3s, but it remains to be seen whether their head coach exorcised his midrange demons.
The offense will certainly need to get healthier if it wants to contend for the East title. SCHOENE projections aren't enthused by the Wizards' offseason and peg them for a 27th-ranked offense next season as the frontcourt gets more ancient and Porter falls back to Earth. Only three players (Wall, Beal and Marcin Gortat) on the Wizards' roster are projected to have an output greater than 1.5 wins above replacement. Not good.
The good news is that the defense should be top-notch. After finishing fifth in defensive rating last season, both SCHOENE and RPM see top-three finishes for the stingy Wizards' defense.
However, the disappointing offense should saddle the Wizards' hopes of contention once again. RPM sees Wall leading a 17th-ranked offense and taking a small step forward to a 47-35 record. If Wall adds a 3-point shot, he could become an MVP candidate and shatter these projections. But the safe bet is that the Wizards stay Wizarding in the outer tier of NBA Finals hopefuls.
East No. 4 | East No. 6 | Full List
