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No. 6: Memphis Grizzlies
Last Season: 55-27
5th place in West; Lost 4-2 to Golden State in Round 2
Through three games of their conference semifinal series with the Golden State Warriors, things were going just as the Memphis Grizzlies planned. The Grizzlies had taken a 2-1 lead over the heavily favored Warriors and hosted Game 4 with a chance to put the Warriors on the brink of elimination. Memphians could feel a second trip to the Western Conference finals in three years in their grasp. And then Golden State adjusted defensively, started making 3s and won the next three games.
Such has been life in the West for a Grizzlies team that's longer on its trademark grit and grind than star talent. Memphis has proven a difficult playoff out, but has yet to win a game in the conference finals in franchise history. After reshuffling the deck, the Grizzlies will again try to overcome more star-studded opponents to break through in the postseason.
There was a brief moment during the 2014-15 season where Memphis looked like leading contenders. After acquiring forward Jeff Green from the Boston Celtics midseason, the Grizzlies won 11 of their first 12 games with Green in the lineup to climb into second in the West, three games ahead of their nearest rival.
That success proved fleeting. Memphis went 16-13 after the All-Star break, slipping to the fifth seed. And Green himself never really fit into the lineup, either as a starter or after asking to come off the bench. The Grizzlies were actually outscored with him on the court.
Still, Memphis had a path to playoff success. The Grizzlies got a favorable opening-round matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers, hosting the Blazers despite Portland technically being the higher seed by virtue of winning the Northwest Division. They dispatched the Blazers in five games, but lost point guard Mike Conley to a facial fracture in Game 3. Conley returned for Game 2 against the Warriors, sparking a road upset that put Memphis in position to scare the West's top seed.
The series changed when Golden State made an adjustment to put center Andrew Bogut on Grizzlies guard Tony Allen and use Bogut as a rover defensively, gumming up the Memphis offense. And when Allen was subsequently sidelined with a sore hamstring, the Grizzlies no longer had the defenders to match up with the Warriors' star guards. Memphis' season ended at home, with all four losses in the series by double digits.
The Grizzlies' big summer concern was re-signing Gasol, who has played his entire seven-year career in Memphis. A contingent from the organization met with Gasol in Barcelona on July 1, and he never seriously entertained other offers before signing a five-year contract worth the maximum of more than $113 million.
Before free agency, the Grizzlies added another option to their wing rotation with a series of trades that landed them longtime nemesis Matt Barnes, formerly of the rival Los Angeles Clippers. Memphis gave up no assets of note to get Barnes, on a value $3.5 million contract for 2015-16.
The Grizzlies lost Gasol's backup, Kosta Koufos, who got a big raise on a four-year, $33 million deal from the Sacramento Kings. Memphis replaced him with free agent Brandan Wright, a native of Nashville who signed a three-year contract for the midlevel exception. Wright, a high-percentage finisher, looks like one of free agency's better values.
Continuity is the holy water of the NBA, and no team enters the 2015-16 season with a nucleus that's shared more time together than the Grizzlies' Conley, Gasol, Allen and Zach Randolph. "We have our core four," coach Dave Joerger says. "They've been playing together forever, and we like our team. We know our identity -- the defensive mindset, get the ball in the paint."
In a league that's trending small, fast and outside, Memphis is playing against the grain. This is a rugged outfit that sacrifices stretch in favor of strength. "We play traditional basketball, which is actually now nontraditional," Joerger says. "Three out, two in; Don't take bad shots and don't turn it over. Make opponents play against a full shot clock defensively, and then try to make them play the full shot clock on the other end against our defense."
This is a formula Memphis is comfortable with. But coming into a season where several of the powers in the Western Conference have gotten stronger and more versatile, do the Griz have the firepower to make a championship run? -- Kevin Arnovitz
Projected Real Plus-Minus for starters
Mike Conley, PG: +3.8
Courtney Lee, SG: -0.7
Jeff Green, SF: -3.2
Zach Randolph, PF: +2.4
Marc Gasol, C: +2.4
Scouting reports on every player on the Grizzlies
Using shot data from 2014-15 and projected starters, Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry ranks each team's offensive efficiency based on square footage.
We're not asking for more 3s from Allen, but Conley and Lee are two of just nine players to hit at least 38 percent of 3s with fewer than 300 attempts in 2014-15.
Memphis' 50 shot attempts per game from the paint led the NBA. Problem: It converted 51.8 percent, 17th-best in the league.
All About The Space: 7th (448 square feet of above-average offense)
To identify players who stretch offenses the most, ESPN Stats & Information created the Kyle Korver effect -- a metric on a 1-100 scale, factoring in 3PT%, 3-point attempt rate (percentage of total shots that come from 3-point range) and influence on teammate FG%.
Korver effect: Even with Lee (85.9), the Griz project to hit just 33.7 percent of their 3s, 27th in the NBA.
A couple of factors work against Memphis' 2015-16 projection. One is the team's age. At least seven Grizzlies will be 30 or older by opening night, and possibly more than half the roster if Ryan Hollins makes the team. Based on projected playing time, Memphis' effective age weighted by minutes of 31.6 ranks a close second to the San Antonio Spurs. The Grizzlies can afford a downturn from aging wings Allen (33), Barnes (35) and Vince Carter (38) because they have multiple rotation options. But they need 34-year-old Randolph to continue playing at a high level, and even Gasol (30) should be beyond his prime years.
The other issue is Memphis' tendency to outperform its point differential. The Grizzlies had the West's sixth-best point differential (plus-3.2 ppg) a year ago. The San Antonio Spurs had an identical 55-27 record while outscoring opponents by 6.2 points per game. Starting with differential rather than record gives a different picture of how far away Memphis is from the West's best teams.
Still, the biggest problem for the Grizzlies remains their conference. In the East, Memphis would project as the biggest threat to the Cleveland Cavaliers. But with the West's top teams loading up this summer, the Grizzlies sit a semi-distant sixth in the pecking order.
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