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Philadelphia 76ers: 2015-16 Forecast

East No. 14 | Full List


No. 15: Philadelphia 76ers

Last Season: 18-64
14th place in East; missed playoffs


More than two years after hiring Sam Hinkie as GM and president of basketball operations and beginning a rebuilding effort unlike any seen before in NBA history, the Philadelphia 76ers remain in asset-accumulation mode.

The Sixers took a modest step forward during 2014-15, finding a useful starter near the minimum salary in forward Robert Covington and becoming competitive defensively. Still, a setback for 2014 No. 3 pick Joel Embiid and the decision to take another center (Duke's Jahlil Okafor) with this year's third pick means Philadelphia still appears to be at least another year away from moving up the standings.

Unlike 2013-14, when the 76ers unexpectedly started 3-0, last season's team struggled from the start. Philadelphia lost its first 17 games, coming within a game of matching the 2009-10 Nets for the worst start in NBA history, before beating the Minnesota Timberwolves on Dec. 3.

The Sixers slowly made progress as rookie center Nerlens Noel became more comfortable coming back from a torn ACL. Noel's presence was the biggest reason Philadelphia improved from 27th to 13th in defensive rating. However, the Sixers' offense actually got worse. Relative to league average, Philadelphia had the third-lowest offensive rating since the ABA-NBA merger.

The offense might have been even more inept if not for the arrival of Covington, signed to a four-year contract for slightly more than $4 million after he was waived by the Houston Rockets at the end of training camp. Covington averaged 17.4 points per 36 minutes and made a team-high 167 3-pointers.

As Noel established himself as a cornerstone, the 76ers' other 2013 lottery pick was on the move. At the trade deadline, Hinkie sent 2013-14 Rookie of the Year Michael Carter-Williams to the Milwaukee Bucks as part of a three-team deal that landed Philadelphia a protected pick originally belonging to the Los Angeles Lakers.

Philadelphia fans entered the lottery dreaming of getting three lottery picks -- their own, the pick from the Lakers and one from the Miami Heat. Alas, both the Lakers and Heat kept their protected picks and the Sixers settled for just the No. 3 overall pick. Philadelphia might have been able to replace Carter-Williams at point guard had Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell been on the board, but after the Lakers took Russell second, the Sixers went for the best available player in Okafor -- the third consecutive year they've drafted a center in the lottery.

Unfortunately, Embiid's troublesome navicular bone helped clear up the logjam. After he spent his first NBA season rehabbing and working out individually, a spring reevaluation revealed insufficient healing and Embiid underwent another surgery on his right foot over the summer. He's expected to miss the entire 2015-16 season.

Again, Philadelphia largely eschewed veteran free agents in favor of using its cap space to take on salary from other teams. The 76ers found a seller in the Sacramento Kings, taking on the contracts of forwards Carl Landry and Jason Thompson (subsequently swapped to the Golden State Warriors for the expiring contract of Gerald Wallace) to get 2014 lottery pick Nik Stauskas, the right to swap picks each of the next two years, and a future first-round pick that could be unprotected in 2019.

Noel is here. No. 3 pick Okafor is, too. But the devastating news that Embiid, 21, would miss a second consecutive season after undergoing yet another foot surgery certainly put a damper on the offseason.

"I'm optimistic. Our doctors are, too," Hinkie said. "If we all do our parts, and we all do everything we can do, every day, [I'm optimistic] that this will end in a way in which Joel can achieve all of his dreams. Nobody has talked me off of that yet. Do you have reason to be concerned? Of course. But nobody has told me that is still not in the cards."

Another 60-or-so-loss season looms. But the light at the end of the tunnel could be two more top-five picks in the 2016 draft if everything breaks right. -- Mike Mazzeo

Projected Real Plus-Minus for starters
Isaiah Canaan, PG: -2.6
Hollis Thompson, SG: -2.7
Robert Covington, SF: +2.6
Nerlens Noel, PF: -1.4
Jahlil Okafor, C: N/A

Scouting reports on every player on the 76ers

Using shot data from 2014-15 and projected starters, Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry ranks each team's offensive efficiency based on square footage.

  1. The Sixers weren't good at putting the ball in the basket from anywhere last season. But they shot an impossibly poor 37 percent from 14 feet and in last season. Jahlil Okafor, who projects to shoot 52.1 percent, couldn't come at a better time.

  2. Don't ever say GM Sam Hinkie doesn't have a plan. Philly took a remarkable 75 percent of its shots from either five and in or 20 feet and out. Computers!

All About The Space: 30th (242 square feet of above-average offense)

To identify players who stretch offenses the most, ESPN Stats & Information created the Kyle Korver Effect -- a metric on a 1-100 scale, factoring in 3PT%, 3-point attempt rate (percentage of total shots that come from 3-point range) and influence on teammate FG%.

Korver Effect: Though the Sixers ranked 30th in offense last season, Hollis Thompson (89.2) was a relative bright spot, shooting 40.1 percent from 3. Thompson (who projects to shoot a team-high 38.3% from 3 this year) will lead an outside attack that SCHOENE predicts to rank 23rd, at 34 percent.

Just twice since the merger have franchises gone three years in a row without winning at least a quarter of their games: the 1996-97 through 1998-99 Vancouver Grizzlies and 1997-98 through 1999-00 Los Angeles Clippers. Philadelphia could join that group this season.

Still, there's reason for long-term hope in the City of Brotherly Love. The Sixers could have as many as four first-round picks next June and will get the Lakers' pick unless it lands in the top three. Forward Dario Saric, a 2014 lottery pick, has maintained he'll join Philadelphia next summer, and the hope is Embiid will be healthy for the 2016-17 season.

With so much talent on the way, this season is important for the players currently on the 76ers' roster to establish they're part of the team's core. As evidenced by the Carter-Williams trade, Hinkie has shown a willingness to move quickly when he senses the opportunity to get value, so even top-10 picks like Noel and Okafor must prove they belong and can play together. Their development remains more important than wins and losses for Philadelphia in 2015-16.


East No. 14 | Full List