Here are our player scouting reports and 2015-16 projections for the Orlando Magic.
Projected starters
Elfrid Payton
Position: Guard
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ A taller, more athletic Rajon Rondo. No 3-point shot
+ Solid left-elbow jumper is extent of range. Great hair and vision
+ Pesky defender who can bottle up opposing guards
Analysis
Payton came out of nowhere -- well, Louisiana at Lafayette to be fair -- but the 10th pick had a standout rookie season, ranking in the top 10 in both assists and steals in the NBA. The issue here is whether he can develop a dependable jump shot so he doesn't have to be pigeon-holed into the next Rondo or Ricky Rubio.
He made only 11 3-pointers all season, missing 31, so the book is already out on the kid: go under on pick-and-rolls. He generated the least amount of gravity among point guards outside of Rondo. Payton's defense is what makes him a potential foundational piece. Real plus-minus (RPM) placed him as the ninth-most impactful point guard defender in the NBA, which is an exceptional start to his career. Opposing point guards loathe going against this guy already. Not a bad weapon to have if you can't shoot.
Victor Oladipo
Position: Guard
Experience: 2 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Bouncy combo guard with tools to be a star
+ Much-improved shooting across the board
+ Defensive metrics vastly trail reputation
Analysis
Playing next to Elfrid Payton did wonders for Oladipo. In his sophomore season, Oladipo saw his shot efficiency improve in every distance bucket except for long 2s last season, but he managed to attack more and settle less on the perimeter. According to Basketball-Reference.com, Oladipo threw 32 fewer bad-pass turnovers last season despite playing more minutes, thanks in large part to Payton soaking up the ball-handling duties.
Oladipo still has plenty of work to do, though. According to NBA.com player-tracking data, Oladipo was one of 17 players to log over 600 drives to the basket, but none shot worse on driving field-goal attempts than Oladipo (41.8 percent). Oladipo gets separation with his length and athleticism but lacks the touch to convert in traffic. For comparison, the similarly sized Dwyane Wade registered 55.4 percent shooting in such situations, and Eric Bledsoe put up 47.7 percent. As of now, Oladipo's jumper isn't sharp enough to compensate for his inside woes.
Coming into the league, Oladipo was projected as a defensive menace, but his numbers are a Debbie Downer on that end. Oladipo registered with the 57th-best defensive RPM at his position last season (-1.59), and his Synergy Sports per-possession data put him in the bottom 30 percent in the league. Put it all together, and the Magic were 4.6 points stingier per 100 possessions when he wasn't on the floor, per NBA.com. Scott Skiles, here's your project.
Tobias Harris
Position: Forward
Experience: 4 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Super talented forward tweener with improved 3-point stroke
+ Elite from corners, but a bit of a black hole on the wing
+ Signed four-year, $64 million extension in offseason
Analysis
One of the more fascinating names to watch this season, Harris capitalized on a contract year and inked a four-year extension as he tries to solidify himself as the star forward in Orlando. But that will be tough with Aaron Gordon, Mario Hezonja and Harris' first cousin, Channing Frye, in the fold.
Harris has the inside track after averaging an impressive 17.1 points per game primarily at the small forward position. But keep in mind this guy just turned 23 years old. He's money from the corners, shooting 45 percent on over 100 attempts, and smartly hunts for gaps in the defense to get easy buckets near the rim. He isn't a great decision-maker, but that comes with the territory of a 23-year-old getting 14 shots per game.
Consider Harris a more scoring-focused Luol Deng, coincidentally a guy who was also coached at this age by Scott Skiles. As it turns out, Skiles coached Harris as a teenager up in Milwaukee so it'll be interesting to see how the new Orlando coach deploys him next to the fleet of young prospects.
Channing Frye
Position: Center
Experience: 9 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Elite shooting big man who could use change of scenery
+ Not a rebounder but capable defender when motivated
+ No paint presence whatsoever
Analysis
A season removed from being a RPM superstar in Phoenix, Frye looks like the odd man out in Orlando. After signing a four-year, $32 million contract to play for a non-contender in Orlando, Frye lost his starting gig at the end of the season and struggled mightily to slow anybody down.
It was a lost season for Frye, who was a puzzling fit from the start. His PER bottomed out to a career-low 9.5 as he struggled to play full-time at the 4 in between Tobias Harris and Nikola Vucevic. At 32, he's better positioned at the center slot where he can stretch the offense with pick-and-pops like he did in Phoenix. He's just not quick enough to stay with today's 4s.
He's a smart player, and his signature top-of-the-key jumper can still be a powerful weapon. Expect Scott Skiles to lean on the veteran for some stability on a young squad.
Nikola Vucevic
Position: Center
Experience: 4 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Double-double machine with knockdown mid-range jumper
+ Not a rim protector but stays out of foul trouble
+ Solid passer in post. Volume stats but little impact
Analysis
On paper, Vucevic looks like a bona fide franchise player. At just 24 years old, Vooch averaged 19.3 points and 10.9 rebounds while shooting 52.3 percent from the floor, equipped with one of the wettest mid-range jumpers in the game. Among the 40 players who took at least 300 mid-range jumpers last season, Vucevic ranked eighth in field-goal percentage (46.3 percent).
And yet, his team can't score, can't defend and it gets better when the Montenegrin big man is on the bench. That's not all on Vucevic of course, and Skiles can overhaul Vucevic's defensive shortcomings. But questions about Vucevic's actual on-court value are warranted. His -0.37 defensive RPM is dead-last among centers averaging over 30 minutes per game, and his rim-protection value ranked below-average, according to Seth Parnow's analysis at Nylon Calculus. Not helping his case is that the Magic are 1.1 points per 100 possessions better with him riding pine, per NBA.com.
If you're wondering if Vucevic is worth building a team around, consider his top SCHOENE comps are J.J. Hickson, Carlos Boozer and Drew Gooden. Vucevic could be a bargain at his price tag of $12 million a season once the cap skyrockets, but he still has to prove he's not an empty-stats guy after anchoring the NBA's worst team over the past two seasons.
Reserves
Mario Hezonja
Position: Forward
Experience: Rookie
2015 draft profile
Scouting report
+ Confident Croatian with serious hops and sharp 3-point shot
+ Loves shooting 3s. Doesn't draw fouls
+ Can handle the rock. Elite dunker
Analysis
With Aaron Gordon and Mario Hezonja putting on a show in summer league, the Magic suddenly have something to be excited about after Dwight Howard left three summers ago. "Super Mario" had the play of the summer, slashing into the lane and dunking in traffic with a thunderous one-hand slam. He also took 14 trifectas in 49 minutes, which has to be some sort of summer league record.
Hezonja hunts for his own shot and isn't much of a distributor now, but we'll see if that changes as he gets older and the NBA competition humbles him a bit. With a penchant for dunking and bombing 3s, the hope is that Hezonja projects to be a better version of Rudy Gay as opposed to Derrick Williams.
It's up to Scott Skiles -- notorious for limiting rookie minutes -- whether Hezonja and Gordon will be unleashed this season. They'll initially play behind Tobias Harris, who was given a monster extension this offseason. If nothing else, Hezonja will be a Vineable player.
Aaron Gordon
Position: Forward
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Freak athlete who can't seem to stay healthy
+ Dominated summer league as teenager. Horrendous mid-range game
+ Much improved free throw shooter. Elite defensive tools
Analysis
This is why your mother tells you to stop rough-housing. Coming off a breakout Orlando Summer League in which he averaged 21.7 points and 11.7 rebounds on 50 percent shooting from the floor as a 19-year-old, Gordon was poised to make the leap in his second season out of Arizona. And then he broke his jaw while messing around with his older brother in July.
Gordon just can't seem to stay on the floor after fracturing his left foot in November of his rookie season. However, his ceiling as a bigger Andre Iguodala remains. Gordon may have fixed his woeful free throw issues that plagued him at Arizona, but he was a mess outside the paint, shooting a ghastly 2-for-20 on jumpers between 10 to 16 feet and 4-for-13 on long 2s during his rookie season. The 3-point range isn't there yet, either.
Gordon is still learning the NBA game, which is just fine for someone who was born two months after Karl-Anthony Towns. He'll fight for minutes in a crowded frontcourt in Orlando, and it's worth pointing out Gordon's top statistical comp according to the SCHOENE system is Tobias Harris, the guy ahead of him on the depth chart.
Evan Fournier
Position: Forward
Experience: 3 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Long, slashing 2-guard with deep range
+ Puts the blinders on. Needs to draw fouls better
+ Missed last two months of season with hip issue
Analysis
The 22-year-old has the makings of a MoreyBall-type player who attacks the rim and gets buckets from long range. Last season, 73 percent of his field-goal attempts came within three feet and beyond the arc, a promising diet for the young 2-guard.
Where Fournier struggles is using his slashing abilities to churn out free throw attempts and kickouts. He has the chance to be a lesser version of Manu Ginobili, but Fournier's assist rate (2.6 per 36 minutes) and free throw rate (3.2 attempts per 36 minutes) stand far below where it needs to be. He's long enough to see above the defense, but there's little evidence of him being a dynamic ball-handler on the wing. He'll need to be better if he's fighting over minutes with rookie Mario Hezonja.
One weird thing: the 6-foot-7 Fournier blocked just two shots in 1,661 minutes last season, which gives him the fourth-lowest block rate of all-time of someone his height or taller (0.04 blocks per 36 minutes). Only Kevin Martin, Allan Bristow and Jason Kapono have delivered a more block-phobic season than Fournier's 2014-15 campaign (minimum 1,000 minutes).
Jason Smith
Position: Forward
Experience: 7 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ 7-foot shooting guard who is master of the long 2 and little else
+ Below-average rebounder and defender. Needs 3-point game
+ Shooting percentages in steep decline over past three years
Analysis
The good thing is Jason Smith didn't get hurt last season. The oft-injured big man never missed a game for the dreadful New York Knicks, which seems like a valiant accomplishment worthy of a badge or something. The reward: The Knicks were outscored by 424 points when Smith was on the floor last season, the raw fourth-worst plus-minus for any individual.
Smith heads south where he'll try his mid-range game with the Magic. A whopping 65 percent of his shots originate between 10 and 23 feet, one of the highest rates for any big man. He's a fine mid-range shooter, but the payoff isn't worth the extreme volume. He barely shoots around the rim anymore, and his field-goal percentage has bottomed out to 43.4 percent after being 52 percent in 2011-12. A 3-point shot is long overdue.
Smith's defense, according to ESPN's real plus-minus, was among the league's worst last season (minus-3.4), and his rebounding rate was embarrassingly low for a 7-footer. Maybe Andrea Bargnani rubbed off on him a little too much. Smith hopes to turn things around in Orlando, as he signed a one-year deal with the club this summer.
C.J. Watson
Position: Guard
Experience: 8 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Feisty veteran backup point guard with great 3-point stroke
+ Loves to shoot from the corners. Not a distributor
+ Solid defender. Can play off ball but too small to guard 2
Analysis
Every team could use a C.J. Watson. The 31-year-old has carved out a nice NBA career as a steady backup who can rain from deep. Watson shot 40 percent from downtown for the offensively challenged Pacers last season, though he was much better pulling up from above the break than in the corners, where he's a rare threat at the point guard position. You have to guard him.
Watson will be a much better version of Luke Ridnour for the Magic, a team that has cycled through their veteran point guards the past couple years. Watson doesn't have great court vision, but they already have plenty of that with Elfrid Payton. Watson will be a solid complement to the youngster. If the Magic get off to a rough start, look for the veteran to be on the trading block to a playoff team.
Dewayne Dedmon
Position: Center
Experience: 2 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Super-long shot-blocking big man
+ Elite rebounder. Putback scorer
+ Needs to keep fouls in check
Analysis
Dedmon enjoyed an impressive sophomore season after bouncing around the league in 2013-14. He's a lesser-skilled Festus Ezeli with freakish armspan and leaping ability that makes him a sneaky lob threat. Think of him as a poor man's Ezeli, who is a poor man's DeAndre Jordan.
Backing up Nikola Vucevic, Dedmon pulled down 12.6 rebounds every 36 minutes, making him one of the better glass-cleaners in the NBA. His length can be intimidating down low, and the Magic allowed 8.5 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, according to NBA.com tracking. In fact, Dedmon posted the best on-court net rating of any Magic player.
Dedmon still can't score by himself (he made two post-up baskets in 845 minutes last season, per Synergy tracking), but Skiles will probably love Dedmon's energy and effectiveness around the rim. Opponents shot just 43.7 percent at the rim with him nearby, according to SportVU player-tracking data (Vucevic stood at 53.7 percent). As a young backup center, you could do worse.
Andrew Nicholson
Position: Forward
Experience: 3 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Once promising pick-and-pop big man. Now lost
+ Stays on perimeter except for occasional hook shot
+ Softer than a pillow. Doesn't rebound or draw fouls
Analysis
Nicholson's NBA career has been in a two-year tailspin after starting for the Magic and posting a 15.1 PER in his rookie season. It's not a good sign the Canadian will turn 26 years old in December and hasn't earned a regular role on one of the league's sorriest teams. He used to have a solid touch around the rim, but he has migrated to the perimeter where he is a 31.5 percent career shooter. That's not going to cut it.
For a 6-foot-9 guy without a reliable jumper, it's unacceptable to average six rebounds and just 1.8 free throw attempts every 36 minutes. A year with stretch-four Channing Frye didn't change things. Maybe Scott Skiles can help Nicholson turn it around or else his days as an NBA player may be over.
Shabazz Napier
Position: Guard
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Tiny combo guard who settles for 3-pointers
+ Doesn't create for others. Abysmal finisher around the rim
+ Overconfidence both a blessing and a curse
Analysis
LeBron James' handpicked 2014 draft selection for the Miami Heat is no longer playing for the Miami Heat. Truly, the end of an era.
After winning the NCAA championship, Napier struggled to overcome the sheer size and speed of the NBA level, missing over half his layups and turning the ball over a team-high 24.3 percent of his possessions. A humbling stint in the D-League foreshadowed the rookie's summer departure as the Heat dealt the UConn star to Orlando in a salary dump.
On one hand, it was hard to expect much out of a 6-foot-1 rookie. On the other, he's already 24 years old and is looking way overmatched at the pro level on both ends. Besides his solid 3-point stroke (36.4 percent from beyond the arc), there wasn't much to write home about. Napier needs to improve on his strength inside and steadiness with the rock (4.6 assists and 2.9 turnovers per 36 minutes) if he wants a future in the NBA. He could learn a thing or two from long-time Magic guard Jameer Nelson.
Devyn Marble
Position: Forward
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Shooting guard who can't shoot
+ Son of former NBA player
+ Underwent eye surgery last March. D-League fodder
Analysis
How bad were the Magic last season? Marble started seven games for them. The rookie, a second-round pick from Iowa, failed to translate any of his collegiate scoring prowess to the NBA level, shooting 31.8 percent from the floor and a miserable 5-of-16 at the free throw line. He shot 34.1 percent overall in six games -- at the D-League.
He suffered a detached retina in March and missed the rest of the season after eye surgery, but it's plain to see: Marble needs serious work on his game if he wants to stay at the NBA level. He's not quick enough or skilled enough to rely on being an inefficient gunslinger like he was at Iowa.
Melvin Ejim
Position: Forward
Experience: Rookie
2014 draft profile
Scouting report
+ Undrafted former Big 12 Player of the Year
+ Improved shooter but may be undersized at NBA level
+ Would be old sage on Orlando's roster
Analysis
After playing overseas last season following a standout senior year at Iowa State, Ejim will be some training camp fodder for the Magic. He's already 24 years old, which makes him older than practically the entire Magic squad. Thus, there's little chance the rookie will get a spot.
Ejim's numbers say he's a carbon copy of Alonzo Gee, which feels about right. A strong rebounder in college, the 6-foot-6 Ejim doesn't really project to be a 4 at the NBA level, and he also struggles to keep up with opposing wings. Another season overseas might be best.