Here are our player scouting reports and 2015-16 projections for the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Projected starters
Ricky Rubio
Position: Guard
Experience: 4 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Oft-injured point guard lost most of 2014-15 to severe ankle injury after signing contract extension
+ Uniquely gifted playmaker but exceptionally poor finisher and below-average outside shooter
+ Quality defender thanks to size and quickness and good rebounder for a point guard
Analysis
The Timberwolves' season went awry after a 2-2 start when Rubio sprained his left ankle on Nov. 7 at Orlando. He didn't return until the end of January, and soreness in the ankle eventually ended Rubio's season after just 22 games. Amazingly, Minnesota was outscored by just 1.6 points per 100 possessions with Rubio on the court, according to NBA.com/Stats. Without him, the Timberwolves were outscored by 11.5 points per 100 possessions.
In part because of injuries -- he's played more than 57 games in a season just once in four years in the NBA -- Rubio is still largely the same player he was as a 21-year-old rookie in 2011-12, for better or worse. Few players, if any, are better passers than Rubio, who improved his assist rate to 10.0 per 36 minutes in his limited action last year. Alas, his scoring has barely improved. In fact, last season was Rubio's worst in true shooting percentage (.452), though largely because he shot a career-low 25.5 percent on just 51 3-point attempts. For all the attention on his outside shot, Rubio's greater issue is his finishing. He's shot just 46.7 percent inside 3 feet during his NBA career, by a wide margin the lowest percentage of any player with at least 250 such attempts over the last four seasons:
Yet Rubio is still worth the four-year, $55 million extension he signed last October, largely because of his defense. Minnesota allowed 7.5 more points per 100 possessions with Rubio on the bench, which is consistent with his strong defensive track record in ESPN's real plus-minus, which has rated him on the fringes of the top 10 point guards overall. Rubio has good size and anticipation, which allows him to contest shots and record steals; he led the league in steal rate in both 2012-13 and 2013-14. Additionally, Rubio is a good rebounder for a point guard. The Timberwolves will welcome all of that back, presuming Rubio can stay healthier this season.
Zach LaVine
Position: Guard
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Talented young combo guard survived an unexpectedly large role during his rookie season
+ Miscast as a point guard. Has score-first mentality, and most effective as spot-up shooter
+ Flashed potential at the defensive end. Elite athlete who won slam dunk contest
Analysis
It took LaVine barely a week in the NBA to make more career starts than he did in college. LaVine, who didn't turn 20 until March, famously came off the bench in his lone season at UCLA. He didn't have that luxury with the Timberwolves, who thrust him into a starting role at point guard after Ricky Rubio was injured. LaVine ended up starting 40 games and playing nearly 2,000 minutes. While his All-Rookie Second Team selection was a testament to the power of per-game stats and a high-profile victory in the slam dunk contest, the way he finished the season, averaging 21.1 points, 6.6 assists and 5.8 rebounds in April, showed a path to LaVine becoming a useful NBA player.
To borrow a line, LaVine isn't a point guard, but he plays one on TV. The Minnesota offense averaged 96.7 points per 100 possessions with LaVine at the controls, per NBA.com/Stats, which would have ranked ahead of only the Philadelphia 76ers. He handed out a paltry 5.2 assists per 36 minutes, and his 1.43 assist-to-turnover ratio was about average ... for a small forward. Fortunately, the Timberwolves seem to have gotten the message, and the addition of Tyus Jones and Andre Miller means LaVine probably won't play point guard this season except in an emergency. He shows more promise off the ball. Though LaVine made just 34.1 percent of his 3s overall, he shot 40.2 percent on catch-and-shoot opportunities, according to SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats, compared with 26.9 percent on the pull-up jumpers he loves off the dribble. Playing on the wing will also allow LaVine to get out in transition, where his long strides will allow him to beat defenders downcourt.
LaVine did show promise as a point guard defensively. His 6-foot-6 size allowed him to smother smaller players and recover to contest shots when he was beaten. LaVine's lack of strength could be more of an issue against wings, now that coach Sam Mitchell has inserted him into the starting lineup.
Andrew Wiggins
Position: Forward
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Uber-talented wing prospect flashed special skill set that made him the consensus top prospect in 2014
+ Most effective at this point in post. Settled too often for long 2-point jumpers, hampering efficiency
+ Has potential to develop into an elite defender who combines precocious strength with long arms, quickness
Analysis
Though he wasn't necessarily the most productive rookie, Wiggins, the No. 1 overall pick in 2014, earned Rookie of the Year honors and showed plenty of the promise that had scouts drooling. A year later, the Timberwolves have to be thrilled they were able to get Wiggins as part of the package for Kevin Love, giving their rebuilding process an anchor.
Early on, Wiggins' size and strength were his best tools. According to Synergy Sports tracking, his 266 points on post-ups were the most by any perimeter player and ranked 15th overall last season. Wiggins' effectiveness operating one-on-one was more mixed. He displayed improved ballhandling and powerful finishes when he beat his defender using quickness. Wiggins also drew fouls at an excellent rate, particularly after the All-Star break, when he shot 7.3 free throws per 36 minutes. But Wiggins must improve his outside shooting to make defenders pay for not respecting his jab step. When he settled for pull-up jumpers off the dribble, opposing coaches cheered. Per Basketball-Reference.com, 22.5 percent of Wiggins' shot attempts were 2-pointers from beyond 16 feet, twice as many attempts as he had from 3-point range, and he made just 30.5 percent of them. He started strong behind the arc but made just five 3-pointers in 31 attempts (16.1 percent) after the break.
The tools are there for Wiggins to be a top-tier wing defender. His combination of strength, wingspan and quickness is hard to match. As a rookie, Wiggins was an effective one-on-one defender, allowing opponents a below-average .79 points per isolation play, according to Synergy Sports. Wiggins is less effective at this point in the team context, and his rebound and steal rates are surprisingly average given his athleticism.
Kevin Garnett
Position: Forward
Experience: 20 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Aging superstar came full circle with return to Minnesota and will mentor new Timberwolves stars
+ No longer physically capable of playing extended minutes on a regular basis
+ Still one of the league's most intelligent defenders and remains an excellent rebounder
Analysis
Garnett's return to the Target Center wearing a Minnesota uniform after his acquisition from the Brooklyn Nets at the trade deadline was one of the highlights of the Timberwolves' 2014-15 season. Though Garnett managed just five games in Minnesota because of a sore knee, a new two-year, $16 million contract will allow him to retire with the franchise that drafted him out of high school. Flip Saunders has said he expects Garnett to start when available.
Garnett's spirit is willing, but his flesh is weak. At age 39 with 20 years of NBA mileage on his body, Garnett is 138 minutes away from joining Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Elvin Hayes, Jason Kidd and Karl Malone as the four players in league history to top 50,000 for their careers. He can't move laterally or jump like he once did, and he has been reduced to a pick-and-pop player on offense. More than half his shots were 2-pointers from beyond 16 feet, which Garnett hit at an excellent 49.7 percent clip, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
Amazingly, Garnett blocked just 17 shots last season. Because he can't get off the ground, Garnett has a tough time protecting the rim despite his intelligence. He remains a good pick-and-roll defender, and his ability to box out hasn't waned at all. The past two seasons have been the best of Garnett's career in terms of defensive rebound percentage. A front line of Garnett and Karl-Anthony Towns should control the glass.
Karl-Anthony Towns
Position: Center
Experience: Rookie
2015 draft profile
Scouting report
+ Versatile frontcourt prospect with the ability to succeed in the paint and on the perimeter
+ After preferring to play outside in high school, was forced to develop interior game at Kentucky
+ Has size to protect the rim and enough foot speed to hold his own on the perimeter defensively
Analysis
Towns didn't start his lone season at Kentucky as the top prospect in the 2015 draft, but by season's end a consensus had developed that Towns was the best player available. After winning the lottery, the Timberwolves took Towns No. 1 overall and will develop him into an interior counterweight for 2014 top pick Andrew Wiggins.
Towns arrived in Lexington with a reputation for floating on the perimeter. John Calipari wouldn't allow it, forcing Towns to the post, where he showed progress by the game. Expect similar treatment in Minnesota. Flip Saunders has said he wants Towns to build his game from the post out. He's got good touch down low and decent footwork and showed great court vision -- though occasionally a desire to do too much -- passing out of double teams at the Las Vegas Summer League. Towns might ultimately be best as a pick-and-pop player. He displayed NBA 3-point range in workouts, and his 81.3 percent foul shooting at Kentucky suggests the potential to be a good outside shooter.
Defensively, Towns arrives in the NBA a more complete player. He swatted 11.5 percent of opponent 2-point attempts in college. Besides protecting the rim, Towns might also have enough athleticism to defend most power forwards on the perimeter, which could come in handy in the short term, given Minnesota's depth at center. He's a good defensive rebounder as well.
Reserves
Nikola Pekovic
Position: Center
Experience: 5 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Productive center has been slowed by Achilles problems that required surgery in April
+ Skilled low-post scorer who has strong footwork and soft touch around the basket
+ Underrated defender when healthy. Not a shot blocker, but surprisingly agile against pick-and-roll
Analysis
Injuries have hampered Pekovic throughout his NBA career, and he's never played more than 65 games in a season. The villainous-looking Pekovic, who could pass as The Mountain from "Game of Thrones," was limited to just 31 games by a sprained wrist and a sore ankle. The ankle injury was eventually treated with a debridement and repair of his right Achilles tendon in April. Pekovic hopes to be able to participate in training camp.
The difference between 2014-15 and past seasons is that Pekovic was far less than 100 percent in the games he did play. After making 53.5 percent of his 2-point attempts in past seasons, Pekovic was down to 42.4 percent last season. He wasn't establishing deep post position as frequently, and he struggled to finish despite his excellent touch. Because Pekovic is strictly a post option, a reserve role might make more sense going forward, because starters Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins will also demand post touches.
At his best, Pekovic is a competent defender despite rarely blocking shots. While he's never been much of a rim protector, Pekovic moves his feet well despite his bulky frame and can defend the pick-and-roll effectively. His numbers didn't suffer much at that end of the floor last season, and according to NBA.com/Stats the Timberwolves allowed 4.6 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court.
Gorgui Dieng
Position: Center
Experience: 2 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Athletic center who has proved more offensive-minded than expected early in NBA career
+ Excellent midrange shooter who can also set up teammates from the high post
+ Fine shot blocking has yet to translate into true rim protection. Defensive rebounding declined in 2014-15
Analysis
Coming out of Louisville, Dieng projected as a strong defender who would have to improve his offense to play heavy minutes in the NBA. While he's proved more skilled offensively than expected, Dieng's defensive tools have yet to translate. Minnesota's addition of Karl-Anthony Towns to a crowded center rotation leaves Dieng in an uncertain spot after starting 49 games last season.
Dieng's midrange shooting was a revelation in year two. Using a high, overhead release reminiscent of Jack Sikma, Dieng shot 56.9 percent between 10 and 16 feet, the NBA's best mark from that distance on at least 100 shot attempts, per Basketball-Reference.com. In addition to his midrange shot, Dieng is a threat at the high post as a passer, handing out more assists per 36 minutes (2.4) than starting wing Andrew Wiggins (2.1). He can run the pick-and-pop and got a surprising number of post touches in Flip Saunders' post-centric offense, using a turnaround jumper to rank 31st in the league in points on post-ups, according to Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats.
If Dieng combined the surprising offense with the defensive potential he flashed in college, he'd be a star. Surprisingly, the defense has yet to translate. Dieng has blocked a healthy 4.6 percent of opponents' 2-point attempts the past two seasons, but according to SportVU player tracking on NBA.com/Stats, opponents made 55.8 percent of their shots within 5 feet with Dieng as the primary defender, the worst mark of any player who faced at least seven such attempts per game. Part of the issue might be sheer volume. Only Pau Gasol faced more rim attempts per game than Dieng, who had to deal with straight-line drives allowed by the Wolves' poor perimeter defenders. But even accounting for his teammates, ESPN's real plus-minus has rated Dieng only average for a center in defensive impact.
Shabazz Muhammad
Position: Forward
Experience: 2 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Top prep prospect made major strides in second season thanks to improved conditioning
+ Powerful post-up player who can punish smaller wings and is a threat on offensive glass
+ Still must sharpen defensive focus to stay on the court for extended minutes
Analysis
After a lost rookie season, Muhammad worked hard to come back in better shape, and the results were evident. Muhammad was dramatically improved offensively, making good on the potential that made him the nation's top recruit entering UCLA. Unfortunately, Muhammad's season was cut short by a ruptured ligament in his middle finger that required season-ending surgery in February.
Like so many of his Minnesota teammates, Muhammad is most comfortable in the post. When he played with Andrew Wiggins, the Timberwolves could attack the opposition's weaker post defender. The lighter Muhammad was still strong enough to generate good position, and he's got polished post skills from his prep days. Muhammad also generated a lot of easy baskets from putbacks. And while he struggled as a midrange shooter, Muhammad made a promising 39.2 percent of his limited 3-point attempts (20-of-51).
Muhammad's defensive progress will determine whether he tops out as a high-scoring sixth man or has the potential to emerge as a full-time starter. While he was quicker after dropping some weight, Muhammad still doesn't have a defensive mindset, and he remains curiously incapable of generating steals (0.7 per 36 minutes). ESPN's real plus-minus rated him 76th among 80 qualifying small forwards in defensive impact.
Kevin Martin
Position: Guard
Experience: 11 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Skinny, fragile shooting guard who scores at a high rate with reasonable efficiency
+ Fine shooter despite unorthodox shooting motion. Excels at drawing contact from defenders
+ Conscientious objector on defense and a poor rebounder
Analysis
Like the rest of Minnesota's veterans, Martin was plagued by injuries in 2014-15, missing 34 games because of a fractured wrist and playing just 39 total. It was the fourth season in the past seven that he's missed at least 30 games to injury. This is a big year for Martin to stay healthy. If he plays well, it might actually make sense for Martin to choose free agency next summer over his $7.4 million player option for 2015-16, once considered an albatross.
When he was on the court, Martin was more or less the same player he's always been, averaging 21.5 points per 36 minutes. (His career mark is 20.9 per 36.) Martin's shooting ability allows him to thrive in either a complementary or leading role on offense. He's a dangerous spot-up shooter, but also excels at using his long windup to draw unsuspecting defenders into creating contact and sending him to the line, where he's a career 87 percent shooter. Martin hasn't been quite as efficient the past two seasons, in part because his ratio of long 2s to 3s is about even, which is too high, but would probably improve if he played with more talent.
Despite his skills, Martin has generally rated as a below-average player in ESPN's real plus-minus because of his poor defensive impact. He doesn't like contact when he isn't initiating it and doesn't put forth the requisite effort to be competitive on defense. Since Martin's skinny frame already presents difficulties against bigger opponents and on the glass, he's a defensive liability overall.
Nemanja Bjelica
Position: Forward
Experience: Rookie
2010 draft profile
Scouting report
+ Reigning Euroleague MVP arriving in NBA for first time at age 27
+ Versatile forward with playmaking skills and enough size to play power forward
+ Solid rebounder who should be able to transition to NBA 3-point line
Analysis
Long a favorite of statistical translations, Bjelica put it all together while playing for Fenerbahce last season, leading the team to the Euroleague Final Four and winning Euroleague MVP honors. At 27, Bjelica made the move stateside five years after he was taken in the second round of the 2010 NBA draft, signing a three-year, $11 million deal with Minnesota.
Bjelica's skill set allows him to play either forward position. He's a good ballhandler with enough court vision to serve as a secondary playmaker and has 3-point range, at least from the slightly shorter FIBA line. The SCHOENE projection system pegs him for league-average shooting from the NBA line, at 35.1 percent.
Those skills are more than sufficient for Bjelica to play small forward, but he's probably most valuable using his quickness against bigger defenders as a stretch 4. He rebounds well enough to hold his own at the position, and most of the players SCHOENE offers as comparisons, including Jonas Jerebko and Anthony Tolliver, have been better as power forwards. Bjelica could eventually fit well alongside Karl-Anthony Towns, providing needed floor spacing, though the Timberwolves' frontcourt depth might push him to the wing this season.
Andre Miller
Position: Guard
Experience: 16 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Venerable point guard finally showing some signs of aging as he nears 40th birthday next March
+ Became a liability in Washington because of his poor defense and can't keep anyone in front of him
+ Will probably be capable of setting up teammates and scoring on younger defenders for decades to come
Analysis
For the first time, retirement was in sight for Professor Andre Miller last season. At 38, he struggled enough defensively that the Washington Wizards replaced him midseason. Fortunately for Miller, his patron George Karl got the Sacramento Kings job in time to acquire him at the deadline, and Miller played 20-plus minutes per game down the stretch. With Karl's say in personnel diminished, the Kings moved on this summer, and Miller landed in Minnesota on a one-year deal for the veterans minimum.
Miller's offensive production has scarcely waned. His old-man game has allowed him to defy his loss of quickness. Miller doesn't need it to post up younger defenders who don't know how to handle his guile, and his court vision will outlast his ability to compete physically in the NBA. Miller's usage rate has dipped the past two seasons, because he can't really beat opponents off the dribble, and his turnover rate last season, on 24.3 percent of his plays, was a career high. But compared with other backup point guards, he's incredibly skilled.
The end will come for Miller when he can no longer defend well enough to stay on the court, and we got close to that point last season. The Wizards allowed 8.6 more points per 100 possessions with Miller on the court, according to NBA.com/Stats, a problem even though he was backing up one of the league's better defensive point guards in John Wall. Miller wasn't as much of a liability in Sacramento, but the Timberwolves could see a similar drop-off when he replaces Ricky Rubio at the point. That could eventually allow rookie Tyus Jones to supplant him in the rotation.
Adreian Payne
Position: Forward
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Pick-and-pop big man who hasn't made enough long 2s to justify his frequent attempts
+ Has some skills, but painfully slow shot release and play with the basketball are problematic
+ Wasn't as advanced defensively as expected and struggled defending power forwards
Analysis
Barely half a season after drafting him 15th overall, the Atlanta Hawks decided to get a refund on Payne. They found a taker in Minnesota, which offered a lottery-protected first-round pick for him. After playing just 19 minutes with the Hawks, Payne started 22 games for the Timberwolves, but his performance did not suggest a major role in his future.
Payne was drafted just outside the lottery because of his combination of size and shooting ability. As a senior at Michigan State, he made 44 3-pointers at a 42.3 percent clip. Alas, Payne's college 3s turned into long 2s in the NBA. He shot a respectable 40.9 percent on 2-pointers beyond 16 feet, per Basketball-Reference.com, but didn't create enough easy looks to supplement those low-efficiency shots. His overall true shooting percentage was a sickly .443, putting him in the NBA's bottom 10 among players with at least 200 shot attempts. Since Payne draws few foul attempts, adding 3-point range is his easiest path to improvement. He did shoot 16 3s in five games at the Las Vegas Summer League, making six (a 37.5 percent clip).
Given that Payne played for Tom Izzo in college, his difficulty keeping up at the defensive end was a disappointment. His teams allowed a ghastly 116.1 points per 100 possessions with him on the court, the worst defensive rating for any regular in 2014-15, according to NBA.com/Stats. The problem might be physical. Payne plays hunched over on D and doesn't cover ground quickly, which makes it difficult for him to defend on the perimeter. He didn't show enough ability as a shot blocker to be considered a viable center option, recording 0.6 per 40 minutes, so Payne might be stuck.
Tyus Jones
Position: Guard
Experience: Rookie
2015 draft profile
Scouting report
+ Polished, undersized point guard who helped lead Duke to the NCAA championship as a freshman
+ Excels at drawing contact; gets to free throw line, accurate shooter with college 3-point range
+ At a size disadvantage on defense but had a solid steal rate
Analysis
While lottery picks Jahlil Okafor and Justise Winslow got most of the headlines, fellow freshman Jones' role in Duke's national championship shouldn't be discounted. The starting point guard from his first day in Durham, Jones supplied a calming presence and penchant for making big shots beyond his years and scored 23 points in the title game. A Twin Cities native, Jones declared for the draft and slipped to the 24th pick before the Timberwolves traded up to nab him.
Concerns about his size probably caused Jones to slide on draft night. He measured in at barely taller than 6 feet without shoes at the NBA draft combine and looks lighter than his listed weight of 185 pounds. Jones will have to add strength to deal with the NBA's bigger point guards and is unlikely to be anything more than an average defender despite quick hands and feet.
Still, Jones could eventually emerge as a starting point guard because of his offensive skill. He posted an assist-to-turnover ratio near 3, and his 1.17 points per play on pick-and-rolls ranked fourth among major-conference players. Jones does a great job of drawing and selling contact. He shot better than a free throw for every two field-goal attempts and made them at almost a 90 percent clip. That and Jones' 37.9 percent 3-point shooting suggest he could eventually become a knockdown NBA 3-point shooter, though that's unlikely to happen right away. Jones' development as a shooter will be crucial because his size will make it tough for him to score in the paint. Jones made just 44.0 percent of his 2-point attempts last season.
Damjan Rudez
Position: Forward
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Took the concept of a shooting specialist to extremes, providing 3-pointers and almost nothing else
+ Catch-and-shoot threat who at times is not aggressive enough looking for his own shot
+ More comfortable defending smaller players and is historically poor as a rebounder
Analysis
Give this to Rudez: His rookie season was historic. A 6-foot-10 Croatian signed to a three-year, $3.45 million deal last summer by the Indiana Pacers, he grabbed 2.5 percent of all available rebounds while on the court (47 in 1,047 minutes), the second-lowest mark since the ABA-NBA merger among players with at least 1,000 minutes. That was emblematic of Rudez's campaign. He provided the Pacers the shooting they hoped to get, knocking down 40.6 percent of his 3-point attempts, but not enough else to justify a rotation spot going forward. Minnesota acquired him for Chase Budinger in a money-saving deal in July.
Rudez was an extreme specialist. Almost two-thirds of his shots came beyond the arc, and he attempted just 21 free throws all season. Rudez also mostly stayed out of the fray defensively. Besides his non-rebounding, he had just 16 steals and five blocks. Though Rudez's frame suggests a stretch 4, he mostly played on the wing and frequently defended shooting guards because he could get physically overpowered by players of similar size. Rudez's quickness was an issue in that role, but Indiana was no worse defensively with him on the court.
Lorenzo Brown
Position: Guard
Experience: 2 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Score-first point guard with good size for the position
+ Hasn't yet shown he can score efficiently at NBA level in two cups of coffee. Non-shooter
+ Size gives him defensive potential. Can pressure opposing ballhandlers
Analysis
Having waived Brown in training camp the previous season, the Timberwolves finally got him on their roster midseason, using him as a backup after trading point guard Mo Williams. A 2013 second-round pick, Brown played 549 credible minutes, though he apparently didn't show enough to convince Minnesota to keep him on the roster. After the addition of Andre Miller, Brown is likely to be cut in training camp because just $100,000 of his 2015-16 salary is guaranteed.
A major scorer in the D-League, where he's averaged 17.1 points per game, Brown hasn't been able to translate that skill to the NBA. He's not an outside shooter, having made 15.5 percent of his 58 career 3-point attempts, and he doesn't get to the basket enough to compensate. An adequate playmaker, Brown has at least been surehanded, averaging just 2.0 turnovers per 36 minutes last season. With his size, Brown can be a good defensive option at the point, and he has the ability to pressure opponents full court.