Here are our player scouting reports and 2015-16 analysis for the Toronto Raptors.
Projected starters
Kyle Lowry
Position: Guard
Experience: 9 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Long-underrated point guard earned first All-Star trip before breaking down physically in second half
+ Skilled pick-and-roll operator with ability to pull up, get to basket or find teammates
+ Above-average defender thanks to quickness and strength. Transformed body during offseason
Analysis
Overdue validation for Lowry came in January, when (with assists from Justin Bieber and Drake) he was voted to his first All-Star Game. Lowry deserved it. At the time, he was 13th in the league and fifth among Eastern Conference players with 8.1 wins above replacement player (WARP). But Lowry spent the second half of the season battling a bad back and contributed just 1.3 WARP after the break. He was a shadow of himself in the Raptors' playoff sweep at the hands of the Wizards, averaging 12.3 points on 31.6 percent shooting.
It's a shame the lasting impression of Lowry's 2014-15 season was so negative because, when healthy, he has developed into one of the league's top point guards. Although he doesn't necessarily have a single great skill, Lowry is good enough across the board to be dangerous in the pick-and-roll. He's a threat to pull up when opponents go under the screen (he shot just 33.8 percent on 3s last year, but was at 38 percent the year before), can get to the basket and take contact and is a willing passer. Even with the second-half downturn, Lowry's 18.6 points per 36 minutes were a career high.
Lowry got in the best shape of his career over the offseason, to the point where he was almost unrecognizable at media day. The hope is carrying less weight will help Lowry get through the long season. It should also help defensively, where Lowry has always been quick on his feet and strong with a low center of gravity. He's also a terrific rebounder from the backcourt.
DeMar DeRozan
Position: Guard
Experience: 7 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ High-scoring shooting guard who excels at getting to the free throw line
+ Limited range as a jump shooter. Much more comfortable a step inside the arc
+ Competes defensively. Overmatched against many small forwards
Analysis
This is a fascinating contract year for DeRozan, who will almost certainly opt out of the $10.1 million he is scheduled to make in 2016-17, the last year of an extension that was widely panned at the time but has aged well. DeRozan would hit the market at age 26 with at least one All-Star appearance to his credit and two seasons (and counting) with at least 20 points per game. Yet advanced statistics suggest DeRozan is an average shooting guard and his comparable players (a group that includes Gerald Henderson, Richard Hamilton and Ron Mercer) have aged poorly. Buyer beware.
The fundamental problem is that DeRozan, like those predecessors, is a shooting guard without 3-point range. After showing progress as a shooter in 2013-14, when he averaged 22.7 PPG and was chosen an All-Star, DeRozan regressed last season. He made just 25 triples and is a career 27.0 percent shooter beyond the arc. DeRozan also struggled just inside the arc in 2014-15, shooting just 35.2 percent from 16 feet to the 3-point line per Basketball-Reference.com after hitting 39.5 percent of such attempts -- which make up more than a third of his shots -- the year before. DeRozan compensates by getting to the free throw line seven-plus times per game, a key reason he's an effective isolation player, but his true shooting percentage (.510) was substantially worse than league average. Among players who averaged 20-plus PPG, only Kobe Bryant was less efficient as a scorer.
The addition of DeMarre Carroll should help DeRozan defensively, taking pressure off him to defend small forwards when the Raptors are using their starting lineup. At 6-foot-7, DeRozan isn't quite big enough to handle that assignment, as Paul Pierce exposed him during the 2014 postseason. He also rebounds more like a guard.
DeMarre Carroll
Position: Forward
Experience: 6 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Archetypal 3-and-D role player who developed into key part of 60-win Hawks team
+ Most efficient spotting up from 3-point range but also has ability to create own offense at times
+ Versatile defender who gives Toronto the option of playing more small ball
Analysis
Of the five starters who helped the Hawks to an unexpected 60-win season, Carroll was the only one not chosen an All-Star. His reward -- besides sharing the January award for Eastern Conference Player of the Month given to all five starters -- came in free agency. Carroll, who made $5 million total the last two seasons as one of the league's biggest bargains, signed for $58 million over four years with the Raptors on the opening day of free agency.
Carroll transformed his game by adding a 3-point dimension. Having made 27 total 3s in his first four seasons, he made 97 in 2013-14 and 120 last season at a 39.7 percent clip. The Atlanta offense certainly helped that progress, as Carroll got an above-average number of open attempts, but he should be able to settle in around the 36 percent he shot beyond the arc in 2013-14. Not strictly a specialist, Carroll created more of his own shots in the playoffs by driving on the catch and attacking the offensive glass, which was important when the Hawks' attack bogged down.
An undersized power forward at Missouri, Carroll has added wing skills but has the ability to defend smaller 4s. Toronto figures to make use of that more frequently than Atlanta. Per NBA.com/Stats lineup data, Carroll played just 24 minutes at power forward during the 2014-15 regular season. One possible concern is his rebounding, which has only been average for a small forward. In bigger lineups, Carroll is more than capable of matching up with the opposition's best wing scorer, filling a huge need for the Raptors.
Patrick Patterson
Position: Forward
Experience: 5 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Stretch-4 with inside track on replacing departed Amir Johnson at power forward
+ Good 3-point shooter regardless of position. Finishing ability declined last season
+ Undersized defender who compensates with long arms. Weak rebounder
Analysis
Having proven Toronto's best option at power forward each of the last two postseasons, Patterson will get a chance to win a starting job this season with the departure of veteran Amir Johnson. There's little question that Patterson is the most talented of the Raptors' options to replace Johnson with another big man. Still, head coach Dwane Casey maintained at media day that his decision will be more about the best fit than the best player.
Patterson does fit well with Valanciunas on offense. His ability to stretch the floor opens things up for Valanciunas in the post and as a roll man in the pick-and-roll. Sometimes calling a player a stretch 4 is damning their shooting ability with faint praise. Not so for Patterson, who made 105 triples -- good for eighth among post players -- at a 37.1 percent clip last season. He embraced the role, attempting more than half his shots from downtown. At the same time, Patterson's inside game suffered. He shot just 55.3 percent inside three feet, down from 63.2 percent the year before and an impressive 74.2 percent in 2012-13.
The questions about Patterson's fit are all defensive. Per NBA.com/Stats, the Raptors allowed 106.9 points per 100 possessions with Patterson and Valanciunas together, highest among their regular frontcourt duos and good for a bottom-five defense over a full season. The Patterson-Valanciunas lineups particularly struggled on the glass, no surprise since Patterson's defensive rebound percentage (16.3 percent) was far below average for a power forward (18.9 percent).
Jonas Valanciunas
Position: Center
Experience: 3 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Promising young center who took a step forward offensively last season and now must do the same on D
+ Efficient post scorer. Also dangerous rolling to the basket in pick-and-roll situations
+ Underrated rim protector. Struggles when asked to defend on perimeter
Analysis
Even though Valanciunas is no longer in a contract year after agreeing to a four-year, $64 million extension in August, this is still a key season for his development. Amir Johnson's departure takes away Valanciunas' security blanket and means he must step into the role of defensive anchor to make his new contract the bargain it appears.
Last season did see Valanciunas make good on the offensive potential he'd flashed in Europe. He improved his 2-point percentage from 53.1 percent to 57.2 percent while increasing his share in Toronto's offense. Valanciunas was one of the league's best post scorers on a per-play basis. His 51.3 percent shooting on post-ups ranked third among players with at least 100 attempts per Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats. Valanciunas was even more efficient on rare pick-and-roll opportunities, shooting an excellent 57.9 percent on just 57 attempts. He's also an accurate free throw shooter for a big man, making 78.6 percent last season, and has been reasonably accurate on his occasional midrange looks.
An intimidating paint presence, Valanciunas held opponents to a relatively good shooting percentage (46.5 percent) within five feet of the hoop, per SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats. Still, Valanciunas finds himself a half-step late as a help defender on a regular basis. His limited agility is also an issue defending on the perimeter and was one reason Johnson frequently finished games at center in place of Valanciunas. Without that option this season, Valanciunas will have to be ready on D.
Reserves
Terrence Ross
Position: Guard
Experience: 3 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Athletic wing with shooting ability who hasn't been able to harness his skills on a regular basis
+ Not particularly comfortable handling the ball. Surprisingly poor finisher
+ Defensive attention tends to wander. Lacks strength to defend small forwards
Analysis
After briefly losing his starting job at midseason, Ross heads to the bench -- possibly for good -- after the signing of DeMarre Carroll this summer. Raptors coach Dwane Casey envisions Ross replacing Lou Williams as the team's sixth man and supplier of instant offense from the bench. If Ross can't hold that role in the last season of his rookie contract, he might find himself elsewhere next year.
On paper, Ross has all the tools. The 2013 dunk champion, he can jump out of the gym and is also a polished outside shooter who's made more than 300 3-pointers the last two seasons. Add in a 51-point game in January 2014 and Ross sounds like a budding star. Alas, his production has fallen short because Ross can't put those skills together on a regular basis. A weak handle is much of the problem. Casey gave Ross more chances to create his own offense last season, but he was turnover-prone as a pick-and-roll ball handler and surprisingly bad around the rim given his athleticism (he shot 58.4 percent inside three feet, per Basketball-Reference.com). That leaves Ross as mostly a spot-up specialist, a role in which he's fine but hardly spectacular.
Ross' defense has been more of the problem. He's prone to lapses that allow opponents to cut to the basket. Even when Ross is locked in, at a lean 6-foot-6 he's too slight to defend small forwards. That, along with his weak defensive rebounding, makes it difficult to play Ross extended minutes with DeMar DeRozan.
Cory Joseph
Position: Guard
Experience: 4 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Promising defensive-minded point guard who stepped into larger role last season
+ High-percentage 2-point shooter. Rarely a 3-point threat. Adequate playmaker
+ Good combination of size and quickness on defense. Works hard on that end
Analysis
It's only fitting that the SCHOENE projection system compares Joseph to George Hill as his closest statistical match. Like Hill, Joseph showed promise as a backup point guard in San Antonio before joining his hometown team in a larger role. The Spurs had to renounce the rights to Joseph to add LaMarcus Aldridge and he signed a four-year deal worth nearly $30 million to play in his native Toronto.
Still just 24, Joseph has displayed the potential to become one of the league's better defensive point guards. He's got decent size for the position and great lateral quickness. Add in a willingness to work defensively and Joseph has the recipe to frustrate opposing point guards. His size will also allow Joseph to play together with Kyle Lowry in the backcourt at times.
Joseph's offensive game remains a work in progress, but he made important strides last season while playing regular minutes for the first time in his career. Joseph slightly improved his assist rate to 4.7 per 36 minutes while also scoring more efficiently. Though not much of a 3-point threat (he made 16 in just 44 attempts), Joseph was able to get to the basket off the pick-and-roll and made 52.0 percent of his 2-point attempts. Over the course of his career, he's been surprisingly accurate in the in-between area away from the basket but inside the paint, making better than 40 percent of his shots -- often pull-up jumpers -- from this range.
Luis Scola
Position: Forward
Experience: 8 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Aging veteran who remains useful as a pick-and-pop player and versatile defender
+ Accurate shooter from midrange. Below-average finisher
+ Excellent defensive rebounder. Surprisingly capable rim protector
Analysis
After replacing Tyler Hansbrough in Indiana, Scola will now do the same in Toronto after signing a one-year deal for $2.9 million. Any questions among Canadians about whether the 35-year-old Scola can still contribute were answered when he dropped 34 points on Canada in a win in this summer's FIBA Americas Championship. Scola was named MVP of the tournament after leading Argentina to a spot in the final and a berth in the 2016 Olympics.
Scola's pick-and-pop game should fit well with the Raptors. He's historically been one of the league's best midrange shooters, making 44.5 percent of his career attempts between 16 feet and the 3-point line per Basketball-Reference.com. Last season was the first time Scola's accuracy from this range fell below 45 percent since 2009-10. Since Scola is no longer an average finisher around the basket, his true shooting percentage (.515 last season) is worse than league average. Still, he can keep his defender honest and provide adequate floor spacing.
Toronto surely coveted Scola's rebounding prowess. He grabbed 25.6 percent of available defensive boards last season, far better than the departed Hansbrough (17.3 percent) and Amir Johnson (17.3 percent) and holdover Patterson (16.3 percent). At 6-foot-9, Scola also manages to protect the rim reasonably well simply by getting in the way of drivers. Still, he shouldn't be expected to play regular minutes at center.
Bismack Biyombo
Position: Center
Experience: 4 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Quality defensive center whose offensive skills are too weak to log heavy minutes
+ Excellent shot blocker. Does a good job of avoiding fouls. Good defensive rebounder
+ Poor hands a major offensive limitation. Should not shoot anything but layups and dunks
Analysis
Biyombo is a former Charlotte lottery pick who's mostly lived up to defensive expectations but has been unable to contribute offensively. As a result, Biyombo lost his rotation spot early last season and was allowed to leave as a free agent. He signed a two-year, $5.7 million deal to serve as the Raptors' backup center.
If the NBA allowed offense-defense platoons, Biyombo's D would be in demand. He blocked 6.3 percent of opponents' 2-point attempts last season, good for fourth among players who saw at least 500 minutes of action. While opponents shot decently at the rim against Biyombo last season (49.1 percent, per SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats), he was the league's best rim protector the season before. For a big-time shot blocker, Biyombo tends to leave his feet frequently. He relies on verticality and is able to cheat the rule a bit by using his body to push defenders away from the hoop. As a result, Biyombo doesn't foul particularly often. He's also capable of defending on the perimeter after switches, keeping quicker guards in front of him and using his long arms to contest their shots.
Alas, that same agility doesn't seem to translate on offense. Biyombo's footwork is poor on the pick-and-roll and he has a tough time catching the ball on the move -- sometimes even when he's stationary. Add to that Biyombo's limited range (he shot 11-of-49, 22.4 percent beyond 3 feet last season per Basketball-Reference.com) and opponents don't have to pay him much attention. About the only way Biyombo can make them pay is with putbacks. His offensive rebound percentage (a career-best 13.7 percent) ranked in the league's top 10.
James Johnson
Position: Forward
Experience: 6 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Hyperactive combo forward with athleticism and size to defend either position
+ Not a 3-point threat but dramatically improved finishing last season
+ Phenomenal shot blocker from the perimeter and solid defensive rebounder
Analysis
In his second tour of duty in Toronto, James Johnson enjoyed his best season, posting the second-highest net rating among Raptors regulars at plus-7.0 points per 100 possessions. Yet Johnson and his conspicuously-dyed red hair spent most of Toronto's playoff sweep on the bench, indicating the coaching staff didn't trust him -- particularly as a power forward, where Johnson could have matched up with Raptors nemesis Paul Pierce.
Johnson's ability to execute the team's defense was a factor in his limited playing time. Whether he was following the script or not, Toronto defended much better with Johnson on the court, allowing 4.5 fewer points per 100 possessions according to NBA.com/Stats. He's a shot-blocking presence as a help defender from the wing, rejecting 2-point attempts at a rate (4.1 percent) better than the average center (3.7 percent). Johnson also creates steals without taking bad gambles and can defend a variety of positions, a skill that's slightly less valuable this season with the arrival of Carroll.
Playing Johnson at small forward -- where he saw about 80 percent of his minutes last season -- does squeeze the floor a bit. He made 11 3-pointers all season in 51 attempts. Still, Johnson was an efficient scorer because he took more than half his shot attempts inside three feet and made them at a 77.7 percent clip -- second in the league among players with at least 100 attempts, per Basketball-Reference.com. That figure was out of line with the rest of Johnson's career (he had shot 62.1 percent inside three feet prior to last season), so expect it to regress this season.
Delon Wright
Position: Guard
Experience: Rookie
2015 draft profile
Scouting report
+ Hyper-versatile point guard with excellent size for the position
+ Poor outside shooter who still found ways to penetrate and is a willing passer
+ Has tremendous defensive potential thanks to frame and high steal and block rates
Analysis
The Raptors doubled down on defense-first backup point guards this offseason. Before signing Joseph as a free agent, they drafted Wright 20th overall. The Utah product, the younger brother of longtime NBA wing Dorell Wright, might not play much as a rookie but is more than capable of contributing right away at age 23.
While his brother is a 3-point specialist, shooting is the weakest part of Wright's game. He made 38 3s in two seasons of Division I basketball, though last year's 35.6 percent accuracy and his solid free throw shooting suggest the possibility of improvement. For now, Wright will be more effective getting in the lane off the pick-and-roll. He was an excellent finisher in his first season at Utah before regressing as a senior. Wright will also drive to set up teammates and figures to become more of a playmaker in the NBA if he can't finish as easily.
At 6-foot-5, Wright has excellent size for a point guard and puts it to good use at the defensive end. His steal rate was strong in college and Wright also blocked shots on a regular basis. His length allows him to contest fadeaway jumpers. Wright is big enough to defend shooting guards if he can provide enough floor spacing to play off the ball offensively.
Anthony Bennett
Position: Forward
Experience: 2 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Former No. 1 overall pick was healthy in 2014-15 but still struggled to score with efficiency
+ Has fallen in love with long 2-pointers and must extend range beyond 3-point line or make impact inside
+ Marginally improved defensively due to superior conditioning and still hasn't accepted defensive challenge
Analysis
In some ways, Bennett's 2014-15 campaign was more disappointing than his injury-plagued rookie season. While he wasn't as ineffective, the top pick of the 2013 draft no longer had an easy explanation for his struggles. Bennett will try to turn things around after reaching a buyout of his contract with Minnesota and returning to his native Toronto as a free agent.
Going from the Cavaliers to the Timberwolves was possibly the worst thing that could have happened to Bennett's development because of Flip Saunders' emphasis on long 2-pointers. Bennett took nearly half of his shot attempts inside the arc and beyond 16 feet, making just 33.1 percent of them according to Basketball-Reference.com. While Bennett's 3-point percentage (30.4 percent) was far below average, his effective field-goal percentage on those limited shots (45.6 percent) was far better. Such is the value of the 3-point line, especially given Bennett has yet to translate his athletic tools into easy attempts around the basket on a regular basis.
Getting into better shape gave Bennett a chance defensively, but there's little indication he has the desire necessary to be a good defender in the NBA. According to NBA.com/Stats, Minnesota allowed 4.7 more points per 100 possessions with Bennett on the court. To beat out Patterson and Scola for minutes with the Raptors, Bennett will have to improve his effort.
Norman Powell
Position: Guard
Experience: Rookie
2015 draft profile
Scouting report
+ High-jumping shooting guard who surprised in summer league
+ Capable of creating own shot but must improve 3-point accuracy to earn rotation spot
+ Has defensive mindset. Long arms help him defend bigger players
Analysis
Toronto could have saved money by exclusively scouting the Pac-12 tournament last spring. After taking Wright in the first round, the Raptors drafted Powell out of UCLA with the second-round pick they acquired from Milwaukee in the Greivis Vasquez trade. Powell starred in the Las Vegas Summer League, averaging 18.2 points per game, and earned a three-year contract that is fully guaranteed the next two seasons.
Expect Powell's scoring binge to stay in Vegas. He's more likely to earn playing time with his defensive potential. Though he's just 6-foot-4, Powell's wingspan was measured at nearly 6-foot-11 at the NBA draft combine. He wants to lock up his man and has the physical tools necessary to do so. To contribute in a half-court offense, Powell must improve his outside shooting. He shot 31.4 percent career from the college line, topping out at a modest 38 triples as a senior. In transition, Powell's ability to jump out of the gym makes him dangerous.
Lucas Nogueira
Position: Center
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Skinny, long-armed center with good athleticism for his size
+ Mostly a lob threat on offense. Likes to handle the ball in the high post but prone to turnovers
+ Has shot-blocking potential but must add strength to deal with more physical opponents
Analysis
As a rookie, Nogueira's main contribution was giving teammate Bruno Caboclo someone to speak Portuguese with on the bench. Nogueira played just 23 minutes, and while the departure of veteran centers Chuck Hayes and Greg Steimsma gives him a chance at a larger role this season, Nogueira will have to make progress in his development to claim it.
Nogueira has shown strong statistical potential both in Spain before coming to the NBA and during the NBA summer league. He averaged 11.8 points, 16.0 rebounds and 3.9 blocks per 36 minutes this summer in Las Vegas. Long arms make Nogueira a shot-blocking presence and a lob threat. But he's also tended to foul frequently (5.1 per 36 minutes this summer) and lacks the bulk to defend one-on-one in the paint. It's not encouraging that the Hawks gave up on Nogueira, whom they made the 16th overall pick in 2013, before even bringing him to the NBA.
Bruno Caboclo
Position: Forward
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Extremely raw wing prospect who barely played as a rookie, even in the D-League
+ Has worked so far to develop NBA 3-point range. Rest of offensive game limited
+ Huge wingspan gives him the potential to be a defensive stopper
Analysis
After playing just 23 minutes as a rookie, Caboclo is now a year away from being two years away according to the timetable ESPN analyst Fran Fraschilla famously offered when the Raptors stunned the league by drafting him 20th overall. Caboclo, who turned 20 just before training camp, will benefit tremendously from Toronto owning its own D-League team (based in nearby Mississauga). When the Raptors sent Caboclo to the unaffiliated Fort Wayne Mad Ants last season, there was no incentive to play him for development purposes, and Caboclo logged just 62 minutes in seven D-League games.
More than anything else, Caboclo needs high-level basketball experience. Based on his performance in this summer's NBA Summer League, he's improved his outside shooting in the past year. At the very least he's confident, launching 36 3s (making them at a 27.8 percent clip) in Las Vegas. Now Caboclo needs to improve his shot creation to avoid limiting his future to a 3-and-D role. Experience should help on the defensive end, where Caboclo's freakishly long arms give him major upside.