GO TO: PROJECTED STARTERS RESERVES
Here are our player scouting reports and 2014-15 projections for the Chicago Bulls. (Note: Kevin Pelton's stat projections are for players expected to play 250 or more minutes in '14-15.)
PROJECTED STARTERS
DERRICK ROSE, PG
Scouting report
+ When healthy, one of league's most athletic attacking guards.
+ After playing just 10 games over past two seasons, showed considerable rust over summer.
+ Can be a disruptive defender who delays opposing point guards from initiating offensive sets.
Analysis
Once again, we're entering an NBA preview season with Chicago essays centered on the theme of whether Derrick Rose can recover his former MVP form. After last season's hyped-up "The Return," this time feels very different, which you'd expect being that his comeback lasted all of 10 games. A cynicism has set in about Rose in Chicago, an inevitable product of missing 79 percent of his team's games over a three-year period. Rose was back on the floor in August, toiling for Team USA in the FIBA World Cup as the backup for Cleveland's Kyrie Irving. Rose seemed OK physically, but 25 percent shooting and a 1-for-19 showing on 3-pointers suggested he has a lot of rust to shake off before we can even think of attaching the letters M-V-P to his name again. At least he played, though, and held up through clusters of games, including one stretches of five games in six days.
Rose looked terrific in the preseason a year ago, ranking right with Kevin Durant atop the exhibition WARP leaderboard. Then when the real games started, Rose was passive and out of step. His foul rate was down 5 percent of pre-injury level, his percentage at the rim was down 5 percent and his success rate just beyond that, where he used to hit so many floaters, was down 19 percent from his career mark. His percentage on long 2-pointers was just 10.5, he had just one dunk in 311 minutes, and many of his looks came in catch-and-shoot situations. It just wasn't Derrick Rose, and the Bulls need him back on the attack worse than ever because with a deeper roster, a productive Rose could mean a legitimate shot at a championship. Given the star-fueled look of Cleveland's revamped roster, if Rose is again outshined by Irving, the Bulls' hopes of winning the East will be dim.
JIMMY BUTLER, SG
Scouting report
+ Rugged defender who plays either wing position.
+ Better off the bounce than from outside, but shoots well from corners.
+ Does not create a high volume of offense for a starting wing.
Analysis
Jimmy Butler continues to blossom into an upper-tier NBA wing despite a lack of an accomplished offensive game. Last season, he earned second-team all-defense honors and was named to the Team USA Select team during the summer, though he had to bow out of the workouts with a groin injury. Butler is a hard-nosed defender perfect for a Tom Thibodeau team, and is comfortable swinging between either wing position. He played more at 3 during his first two seasons, last season he was more of a 2. This season, he'll move around depending on Thibodeau's lineup choices, as he'd ideally pair Butler with a shooter such as Mike Dunleavy Jr. or rookie Doug McDermott, with Butler drawing the more difficult defensive assignment.
Butler's offensive game is raw. Last season, with Derrick Rose out, Butler upped his usage rate to 17 percent, still low for a starting wing. His efficiency dropped, mostly due to a 3-point percentage that fell from 38 to 28 percent. Butler did hit 43 percent from the corners and shoots in the high 70s from the line. Now that he should be playing off Rose and next to better floor spacers, Butler should be able to get his success rate near the league average. He's very good off the bounce, with a consistently high rate of drawing fouls. His defensive metrics don't jump out, either by video metrics (74th percentile per Synergy research) or RPM (plus-0.4), but he's an essential clog to one the league's top defenses. Butler is eligible for an extension to his rookie contract, and the Bulls would surely love to lock up a potentially elite role player.
MIKE DUNLEAVY, SF
Scouting report
+ One of league's most consistent spot-up shooters.
+ Has terrific passing and ballhandling skills for his position.
+ Defensive metrics better than reputation.
Analysis
Mike Dunleavy Jr. has been a quality pro for 12 seasons, spent mostly with mediocre-to-bad teams. He has played in only 14 career playoff games, winning just two, and never advancing beyond the first round. This season, at 34, Dunleavy should get his first shot at some high-profile postseason play, and he won't be merely a spectator. Dunleavy has posted as many as 8.3 WARP in a season, but has gradually slid into low-usage, high-efficiency roles the past few seasons. He's one of the league's most consistent deep shooters, hitting 38 percent last season, which actually represented his low-water mark for the past four seasons. His passing and ballhandling remain a constant.
Dunleavy played all 82 games for Chicago and his 2,586 minutes were his most in seven seasons. The Bulls were shorthanded, so head coach Tom Thibodeau played a rotation much tighter than it figures to be this time around. Last season, Dunleavy's RPM (plus-2.9) was his highest yet, and he was a positive on both ends of the floor. Maybe it's the support of Thibodeau's system, but despite a poor defensive reputation, Dunleavy rated in the 91st percentile in Synergy's ratings, rating excellent against the pick-and-roll and in isolation. He has become an average shot-blocker for his position, which for Chicago was strictly small forward. He'd played a fair bit of stretch 4 in previous stops, but Thibodeau likes to stay big. Dunleavy hits free agency after the season, so it would be to his advantage if he got to play in some high-leverage games before that happens.
PAU GASOL, PF
Scouting report
+ Skilled post scorer and passer with face-up ability along the baselines.
+ At 33, posted career-high rates in rebounding and shot-blocking.
+ Solid on defense when near the basket, but increasingly vulnerable out on the floor.
Analysis
Pau Gasol's last season with the Lakers was out of character, in some ways good, and in other ways not so much. Playing on a truly bad team for the first time since his early days with Memphis, Gasol morphed into a volume scorer. His usage rate (26.5 percent) was his highest since his days with the Grizzlies. His true shooting percentage was again off, and for the second season in a row. Yet for all the criticism Gasol took for his defense, he establish a new career high in both defensive rebound and blocked shot percentages. The strange combination of factors meant that, at 33, Gasol's athletic indicators spiked to their highest-yet levels.
Despite all that, Gasol is not as athletic as he used to be. His defense was a mixed bag, still solid when guarding the post, but poor against the pick-and-roll. Video underscores the metrics on that: Gasol sometimes looked like he had skates on as he wheeled backward against ballhandlers whizzing by on their way to the hoop. Yet, after signing a three-year deal with Chicago, we can expect Gasol to resume his previous career trek. He's still a capable post scorer and passer, whose efficiency should improve on the deeper Bulls. Chicago has four starter-quality big men this season, which for Gasol should mean more carefully management minutes and a chance to focus on his strengths. Gasol took less money than he could have had elsewhere to help the Bulls win, and judging by the good things he did last season on a bad team, and the sterling output he had for Spain in the FIBA World Cup, he seems poised to do just that. SCHOENE, however, believes Gasol is reaching an age where he's due for a fall-off.
JOAKIM NOAH, C
Scouting report
+ Skilled high-post passer with a guard-like assist rate.
+ Consistent finisher with just enough of a face-up jumper to keep defenses honest.
+ One of NBA's best defenders, can protect the rim and move laterally against pick-and-roll.
Analysis
Joakim Noah enjoyed a career season in 2013-14, posting 14.0 WARP and earning first team All-NBA honors. He also again made the league's first team all-defense squad, but the biggest difference in his performance was the load he carried on offense in Derrick Rose's absence. Noah became a point center much of the time, with Chicago running its offense through him in the high post. His assist rate was higher than, among others, starting point guard Jose Calderon and Damian Lillard, and he became a consistent triple-double threat. Noah also used more possessions than ever before with his array of putbacks, jump hooks and side-spinning face-up jumpers.
Noah did all of that while remaining the centerpiece of an elite defensive unit. He's posted a defensive RPM of plus-2.0 or better every season of his career, and was at plus-2.5 a year ago. The problems is that all of this responsibility takes a toll on the formerly brittle center who logged 2,818 minutes, 396 more than his previous high. After the season, Noah underwent arthroscopic surgery to clean up his left knee, though he's supposed to be fine for training camp. Noah's workload should diminish with the Bulls adding Pau Gasol and Nikola Mirotic to help in the frontcourt, and Rose hopefully returning to full-time action.
RESERVES
TAJ GIBSON, PF
Scouting report
+ Solid midrange jump shooter.
+ Equally effective as a starter or in a key bench role.
+ One of the league's best and most versatile defenders.
Analysis
Taj Gibson has been a touchstone for the Bulls ever since he came into the league. His game has evolved little since he came into the NBA, and that's a good thing. What has changed are the players around him, and with Carlos Boozer in decline, last season Gibson played nearly 900 more minutes than the season before. The increased exposure upped his per-game averages, brought more attention to his elite defense and led to Gibson finishing second in the sixth man of the year balloting. Boozer was released through the amnesty provision after the season and for a while, it looked like Gibson might get his crack at starting. Then Chicago brought Nikola Mirotic over from Spain, and signed future Hall of Famer Pau Gasol. Gibson remains crucial to the Bulls' fortunes, and there is no way head coach Tom Thibodeau will let him rot on the bench, but it also seems certain that Gibson will see less of the floor this season, whether or not he ends up starting.
With Chicago desperate for offense, Gibson used more possessions than usual, adding additional post sets to his usual array of midrange jumpers. He's just average on the block, though, with a tendency to rely on his athleticism to power over people and taking tough shots. He seldom drew double-teams in the post, but when the defense did send an extra man, his so-so passing skills were often exposed. He makes his money on the other end anyway, where his rare combination of length, mobility, leaping and will make him a versatile and reliable stopper. You can use him on just about anyone, including top-scoring wings for stretches. His defensive RPM has been plus-2.1 or better in each season he has played for Thibodeau.
KIRK HINRICH, PG
Scouting report
+ Average efficiency as a playmaker.
+ Struggles to score inside the arc no longer offsets average deep stroke.
+ Consistent, pesky on-ball defender who can guard both backcourt positions.
Analysis
It's safe to say that Kirk Hinrich means more to the Bulls than he would to other teams, and it's probably just as safe to suggest the vice versa is also true. Despite posting his second straight season of exactly 1.0 WARP, Hinrich was retained by Chicago this summer on a two-year, $5.6 million deal that has a player option on the second season. Hinrich was overexposed in getting 2,120 minutes last season, at least on offense. His playmaking skills are just average at this juncture, and when he plays off the ball, he's also just average. When you combine average efficiency with low volume, you get a player with a negative RPM, which Hinrich has had on offense five years running.
Yet his solid skillset plays better as a third guard since he can play both backcourt positions with above-average defensive production. Hinrich had a career-best plus-1.3 defensive RPM, and ranked in the 75th percentile per play, according to Synergy. The combination of all those factors, along the respect he commands in the locker room, have made him a favorite of fans and the organization alike. Now with Derrick Rose returning, Hinrich can go back to being a prototypical third guard, where his age-34 game will be much more appropriate.
NIKOLA MIROTIC, PF
Scouting report
+ Long, consistent stretch big.
+ Gets to foul line at well above-average rate.
+ So-so defender who will have to adapt to the NBA style of play.
Analysis
After having his name dangled in front of Bulls fans for several years, Nikola Mirotic will finally get to show Chicago what he can do after inking a three-year deal to move stateside this summer. Mirotic was a decorated performer for powerful Real Madrid, but still doesn't turn 24 until February. He's an experienced player with polish, but still with a fair bit of upside. Mirotic's offensive repertoire is what is exciting, especially the 39 percent 3-point percentage he fashioned during is overseas career. At 6-foot-10, Mirotic give Chicago a stretch big man unlike any they've had in recent seasons, and it gives Mirotic a skill unique among Chicago's deep crew of big men that will get him on the floor. It's also possible Chicago will slide Mirotic over to the 3 at times, where his length will spring matchup problems for opposing defenses.
SCHOENE projects Mirotic as a below average rebounder and defender, though its overall forecast of 5.2 WARP would almost certainly make him Rookie of the Year. Mirotic's defensive metrics in Europe were OK, and it seems likely he'll take some time to adjust to the speed of the NBA. He hasn't seen much of the pick-and-roll, and that's going to be a process for him in Chicago. Luckily, the Bulls will always be able to pair him with a good defensive big man who protects the rim. There's plenty of statistical justification for all the excitement Mirotic has generated.
DOUG McDERMOTT, SF
Scouting report
+ Polished, experienced, elite college scorer.
+ One of nation's best 3-point shooters, but can score in post as well.
+ Tiny steal and block rates raise flags about defensive ability.
Analysis
The Bulls were thrilled to deal for No. 11 pick Doug McDermott on draft night. As one of the most decorated players in the country during his four seasons at Creighton, McDermott has more polish entering the league than perhaps any other rookie in his class, with the possible exception of teammate Nikola Mirotic, a longtime star in Europe. The polish in McDermott's game is a good thing, because the Bulls need him to hit the ground running. Given the slashing games of Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler, and the deep contingent of big men on the Bulls' roster, floor spacing is going to prove vital.
That's where McDermott comes in: He shot 46 percent from deep on nearly 600 attempts as a collegian. However, McDermott is as much a scorer as he is a shooter, with the ability to play in the mid-post and to make plays off defenders who get too aggressive on closeouts. He takes care of the ball, gets to the line and over the summer showed a heightened knack for making plays for others. All this makes him a rookie of the year candidate -- if his defense is adequate enough to get him the requisite court time. His overall defensive metrics were solid at Creighton, according to Synergy rating in the 84th percentile. However, his steal and block rates were minuscule, a combination that doesn't usually bode well for an NBA defender. Nevertheless, he'll get plenty of chances to prove his mettle on defense because Chicago not only needs McDermott's offensive production, it needs the manner by which he puts up those glossy numbers.
AARON BROOKS, PG
Scouting report
+ Streaky 3-point shooter who can create own shot off the dribble.
+ Effective in the pick-and-roll when looking to score.
+ Undersized and is a consistently poor defender.
Analysis
After a brief run as a starting point guard in Houston, Aaron Brooks has now played for two teams in each of his past three NBA seasons, and hopes to stick around as a backup to Derrick Rose after signing a one-year deal with Chicago this summer for the veteran's minimum. He'll battle Kirk Hinrich and E'Twaun Moore for backup minutes, and offers more 3-point shooting than his competitors. Brooks is solid in the pick-and-roll as long as he can get his own shot, but that fits the profile of other undersized Bulls point guards like D.J. Augustin, Nate Robinson and John Lucas III.
If Brooks sees much of the court, it'll be as an instant offense threat because of his ability to create for himself. If effective, it's possible he could see time playing with Rose for stretches. He struggled inside the arc last season, and may be morphing into strictly a perimeter threat. Brooks' defensive RPM has been minus-2.5 or worse in all six of his NBA seasons, and last season's minus-5.2 was his worst yet. In other words, the Bulls won't be looking at him as a defensive stopper.
NAZR MOHAMMED, C
Scouting report
+ Offers little on offensive end, with even face-up shot no longer a reliable tool.
+ Solid, well-liked veteran whom coaches like to have around.
+ Still contributes rebound and block percentage better than average for center position.
Analysis
Having Nazr Mohammed on the roster doesn't do any harm. He's old as Methuselah, has been around a lot of good teams, is from Chicago and is well-liked by coaches and teammates alike. He has been the Bulls' nominal backup center in the two seasons since they lost Omer Asik to free agency, and Mohammed's lack of utility contributed to Joakim Noah's bloated minutes total in 2013-14. Mohammed got into 80 games last season, but averaged just seven minutes. His production was a touch below replacement level. He doesn't do much on offense anymore, as even his once solid face-up shot seems to have gone away, and his offensive RPM was minus-4.0. All Chicago needs him to do on its now-deeper roster is defend when called upon -- block some shots, grab some rebounds and commit some fouls. He does all of those things at an above-league average level and SCHOENE thinks he can keep it going for another year. If SCHOENE is wrong, Mohammed's camp invite does not come with a guarantee, so he's easily floated out into the bay like an expiring Eskimo.
TONY SNELL, SG
Scouting report
+ Long, lean wing with potential as a disruptive defender.
+ Has nice touch from outside with 3-point range.
+ Seemed indecisive as a rookie, but more assertive during summer league play.
Analysis
Tony Snell played more than expected as a rookie thanks to Chicago's perpetually short-handed roster. The results weren't great, though there were enough flashes to think highly of Snell's future promise. A lanky, long wing, Snell was at times overwhelmed by the physicality of the NBA. He struggled in the pick-and-roll on both ends of the floor, getting rubbed off too easily against screens on defense, and getting bogged down with indecisiveness on offense.
During summer league play, Snell looked like he had improved his body, ballhandling and shooting, and generally looked like a more confident player. His ability to make plays off the dribble is important, because he looked like this catch-and-shoot game was much better. Last season, Snell needed a dribble to catch his rhythm; now he just lets it fly. With the added confidence comes decisiveness on the floor, and if he blossoms as a second-year player, Snell would be just another successful product of head coach Tom Thibodeau's player development machine.
E'TWAUN MOORE, SG
Scouting report
+ Low volume combo guard.
+ Protects the ball well, but more adept at getting own shot than setting up teammates.
+ Steadily poor defensive indicators.
Analysis
If all goes well, Moore will have a great seat for some really good basketball this season. Moore hooked on with the Bulls on a partially-guaranteed deal that probably ensures he will break camp with the team, unless he really stinks it up during preseason. Moore was signed as a practice player and a hedge against injury. We know about Derrick Rose's issues, and for all of Kirk Hinrich's toughness and moxie, he tends to get beat up a lot as well. So Moore could be an important practice player, but he will be situated behind Rose, Hinrich and Aaron Brooks on the Bulls' depth chart. Moore has a combo guard's game, and suffers for it on the defensive end at the pro level. His offensive efficiency has vacillated according to his usage rate -- the more he tries to do, the more unplayable he becomes. His RPM has been negative on both ends of the floor in each of this three NBA seasons. Still, Moore protects the ball well enough and provides just enough of a deep threat to draw a SCHOENE projection just a whisker above replacement level.
CAMERON BAIRSTOW, PF
Scouting report
+ Typical Chicago draft pick as an experienced college player from an established program.
+ Solid post skills on both ends of the court.
+ Needs to improve body and face-up game to establish a professional niche.
Analysis
After a distinguished four-year career at New Mexico, Cameron Bairstow was taken by the Bulls at No. 49 in June, and subsequently received a guaranteed first-year on his contract. In Chicago, Bairstow will rejoin former Lobo teammate Tony Snell. Chances are, Bairstow will enjoy something of a redshirt rookie season, as Tom Thibodeau prefers to use his assistants to develop rookies in practice, and they don't see much game action, either in the NBA or the D-League.
Bairstow was a college bruiser and improved markedly as a senior, upping his field goal percentage by more than 100 points while doing most of his damage in the post. He's not an exceptional athlete, and will need to improve his 6-foot-9 frame in the weight room in order to bolster a college rebound rate that was nothing special. He'll also need to develop some face-up range after making just two 3-pointers at New Mexico. Bairstow is a solid positional post defender, but must improve his footwork when guarding the pick-and-roll.