Insider offers a breakdown of every playoff series using an expert combination of scouting from Amin Elhassan and advanced metrics from Bradford Doolittle to answer three crucial questions. Also included are predictions from the writers, and ESPN's NBA Basketball Power Index projection for the series.
If you divorce yourself from what we've seen the past few months and consider the Finals from a historical standpoint, it's a bizarre matchup. The Cleveland Cavaliers against the Golden State Warriors. Sure, in 2014-15, we've got LeBron James and Stephen Curry. But think of it like this: Only twice in the past 21 years have both of these teams even made the playoffs in the same season.
The respective records of futility for these organizations are prodigious. The Cavs have never won a title, have made the Finals just once and have never won a game in the league's final round. The Warriors haven't been to the Finals in 40 years -- the longest such stretch in NBA history. Cleveland -- as a city -- is hoping for its first professional sports title since the Browns won the NFL title in 1964. All told, there have been 143 seasons played across the major sports leagues with Cleveland coming up without a title. It's an active streak that is easily the longest for an American city.
As for Golden State, the 49ers and Giants have given the Bay area plenty of title success, but the city of Oakland itself has gone 85 seasons without a crown. The A's last won in 1989, the Warriors in 1975, and the Raiders haven't won in Oakland since 1980.
One way or another, the streak is going to end for one of these proud municipalities. Both teams rolled through their respective conferences and enter the Finals with a combined postseason record of 24-5, the best mark for a Finals pairing since 1991. For James, he's headed into his fifth straight Finals appearance, the longest streak of anyone who didn't play for the 1960s Celtics dynasty. Meanwhile, the Warriors have a collective zero games of Finals experience. Beyond LeBron, these Finals are distinguished by new faces, new cities, new team colors and, after an eight-day incubation period since the conference finals ended, an unprecedented level of anticipation.
QUESTION 1: Do the Warriors have more perimeter defenders to throw at LeBron James than any team in the league?
Elhassan: The biggest strength of the Warriors' defense is the flexibility and versatility of their perimeter defenders. With Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston, Harrison Barnes and Klay Thompson, the Warriors field five players who are at least 6-foot-7. All have length, and as a result the team is able to employ a defensive strategy that is switch-heavy.
Think about the energy exerted by James in his prior series against Atlanta, Chicago and Boston; he faced up against one particular antagonist, with a significant drop-off in defender quality when the opponent switched matchups. Against Golden State, he'll have no such respite, as the Warriors can continuously rotate among five guys who will keep up the pressure.
Doolittle: James had a season-high 42 points against the Warriors on Feb. 26, the only time he faced Golden State this season. In that game, he mostly went at Barnes and Iguodala early, and the goal was to keep James out of the paint. He got there anyway, and by the second quarter the Warriors started to give him more cushion when he was beyond the arc. James then found his shooting stroke, got hot, and was pretty much unstoppable from there. The way he got going that night is similar to the way he has been used so extensively in the playoffs.
The Cavs will run an initial action to start the offense, often a 1-3 ball screen in which a shooter like Matthew Dellavedova or Kyrie Irving will screen for James, then pop out to the arc along with a defender. If the initial pop isn't there, James will move over to a weak side that is totally vacated. While the Warriors' great perimeter defense succeeds by switching one long, versatile defender for another, James sidesteps that strength by luring his man into isolation.
Cleveland's offense has operated in just that way throughout the playoffs. Part of it has been necessity, with Kevin Love out and Irving playing at well under 100 percent health. But much of it has been because it has worked. James leads all postseason players in usage rate and is second in assist rate. According to NBA.com/stats, he's averaging 98.4 touches per game, up from 81.7 in the regular season. Despite one player carrying so much of the load, the Cavs have the best offensive rating in the playoffs, 1.6 points per 100 possessions better than second-place Golden State. And that's with James shooting 17.6 percent on 3-pointers.
Golden State will obviously mix and match against James with all of their wonderful defenders, and that's a big advantage just in terms of stamina and wear-and-tear. But the primary challenge is how they approach James from a team concept. The Cavs are going to isolate him. Does Steve Kerr hope James' shooting stays wayward and focus on keeping him out of the paint -- if that's even possible -- at the risk of him finding his stroke? Meanwhile, James can by himself dictate the tempo of the game, and if he takes care of the ball, slow down Golden State's amazing transition game. The outcome of all this is the primary narrative of the series.
QUESTION 2: Does Cleveland's No. 1-ranked playoff defense in effective field goal percentage matter against Stephen Curry?
Elhassan: Yes and no. The Cavs' postseason defense was much improved, although they didn't face a player of Curry's caliber. Cleveland will try to tweak the strategy employed by every other Warriors opponent before them: Put length and size on Curry with a larger defender, and zero in with a secondary defender lurking to help. In that sense, we can expect Iman Shumpert to spend a large amount of time chasing Curry off screens, with Timofey Mozgov and/or Tristan Thompson ready to help.
Here's the problem: The Cavs struggle with any sort of defensive coverage that requires tertiary rotations. In other words, they might be able to contain Curry, but once the ball starts to move (and the other Warriors start moving as well), Cleveland's team defense struggles to maintain its integrity. When that happens, players tend to overhelp and over-rotate, and Curry finds the seams to get shots off.
Doolittle: ESPN Stats and Info provided what to me is the most amazing statistic of the postseason: Curry has attempted more uncontested shots than any other player of the postseason. That, of course, is money in the bank for the Warriors. He's shooting 63 percent on those looks, including 59 percent on uncontested 3s. NBA coaches aren't stupid. Everyone knows you have to fiercely contest Curry out to 30 feet, and even then his ability to shoot off the dribble with unmatched accuracy and a quick release makes him all but impossible to stop. He's 12-for-13 on corner 3s in the playoffs!
To me, it's first and foremost incumbent on James to orchestrate a methodical, ball-protecting offense that keeps the scoreboard turning efficiently. The Warriors will still push the ball up the floor, but it's always more difficult to do that when you're taking the ball out of the net. A big reason why Curry gets so many open looks despite the attention he demands from opponents is the Warriors' transition game and the secondary action that results from it. So much of what Golden State does looks like random offense, but of course it's based on quick reads and precise patterns.
Because Curry and Klay Thompson are threats as soon as they pass half-court, opponents are instantly put in scramble mode. Whether the Warriors have the advantage in numbers is irrelevant. Curry's ability to pull up on a dime with so much range means that if you're not into your set defense, Golden State wins the possession. The Cavs have to keep this random attack under a degree of control by winning at its offensive end.
QUESTION 3. Golden State's weakness has been defensive rebounding. With Tristan Thompson playing starter minutes, how big of a factor will he be?
Elhassan: It's a factor; because of their frequent switching and small-ball lineups, they do leave themselves vulnerable against teams with an offensive rebounding agenda. However, they've been able to defensively rebound well to this point, against teams who were successful offensive rebounding outfits during the regular season (New Orleans was fourth and Houston was seventh in offensive rebound percentage during the regular season). I expect the Cavs to experience some success on the offensive glass, but ultimately not enough to make a significant difference.
Doolittle: Cleveland leads the postseason on offensive rebound percentage, and Thompson leads in offensive boards per game. So I do expect it to be a factor, if not the deciding one. It ties into our first two questions. The Warriors want to get into the open floor and into their offense. The more Thompson can keep the ball alive on the boards and create extra possessions, the better for the Cavs. This series reminds me of a classic football matchup. Think of one of the Giants-Patriots Super Bowls. Can the Cavs control the tempo and pace of the game with ball control and keep the ball away from Curry?
Predictions
Elhassan: Golden State in 5. It feels like we've set this up to be a close series, when I'm not particularly sure it will be. The Warriors are a vastly superior team coming off the heels of one of the most dominant seasons in NBA history. We defer to the mythology of the almighty superstar (LeBron James) being able to overcome the odds and carry his team to victory, but the reality is some odds are too long even for the fairest of fairy tales.
Doolittle: Golden State in 6. The Cavs burned me in the previous round, when I was convinced that the Hawks had all the right elements and were getting the injured Cavs at just the right time. Golden State does many of the same things Atlanta does, only better, though Irving should be a little bit healthier than he was against the Hawks. Still, sometimes we have to step back and consider the big picture. The Warriors won 67 games, 46 of 49 at home, and have rolled through the playoffs. It's going to be a memorable series, I think, but Golden State is just too good.
Don't be surprised if ...
Elhassan: Harrison Barnes continues to earn himself more money. He has quietly put together one of the most consistent postseasons of any player in these playoffs, and he'll have his fair share of offensive opportunities because Cleveland will cross-match and try to hide lesser defenders on him.
Doolittle: The Cavs agonize over how much to use J.R. Smith. Smith's hot shooting was a key factor in helping Cleveland escape the East, especially considering how injuries have left the Cavs bereft of offensive creators beyond James. But Smith's occasional defensive lapses -- going the wrong way on a handoff, watching the ball when it's on the other side of the floor, etc. -- will turn into a quick three points for the Warriors. The Cavs need Smith's explosiveness on offense, but their defense has been 12.8 points per 100 possessions better in the playoffs when Dellavedova and Shumpert are on the floor.
BPI PROJECTION: 72 percent chance Warriors win the series. The most likely series outcome is Golden State in 5.