In the aftermath of Houston's overtime loss in Game 1 Sunday against the Portland Trail Blazers, a lot of the conversation about why the Rockets came up short revolved around Dwight Howard, as TNT NBA analyst Shaquille O'Neal made his usual stump speech about Howard coming up short in the box score as an elite big man.
Howard, in turn, reiterated his desire to be more aggressive demanding the ball, leading to a national debate about whether post-ups are an efficient play call and why O'Neal hates Howard so much.
I broke down Game 1 to separate reasons from excuses, looking for possible adjustments we might see for Game 2. Here's what I found:
A word about Shaq
Without a doubt, there is an element to O'Neal's analysis that is based in entertainment: He knows his comments serve as a lightning rod for attention and get viewers riled up (either denouncing him as a "hater" or agreeing with him in tearing down Howard). The other, less acknowledged, angle is that O'Neal's harsh criticism comes from about 20 years ago, when he was the big who caught flack for underachieving and not being "as good as legends that came before him." For O'Neal, there is a very real rite of passage at work when he puts down Howard, in much the same way that he was put down as "not as good as Kareem Abdul-Jabbar," and Kareem was "not as good as Wilt Chamberlain" and Wilt was "not as good as Bill Russell."
A word about post-ups
Whereas data might show post-ups to be an inefficient play type, there are many tangential benefits that come out of them. When playing a team with no frontcourt depth like Portland, the impact of drawing fouls on the front line is immense. The collapsing help defense leads to scrambling defensive rotations, which against a non-elite defense like Portland leads to mistakes. Finally, Howard did well in post-ups versus Portland in the regular season, and in Game 1 missed a lot of "gimmes" around the rim.
Shaq Claim No. 1: 'Dwight needs to run the floor and get duck-ins'
O'Neal's infamous breakdown of how Howard can score 28 points per game calls for Howard to run the floor hard for easy transition buckets and duck-ins at the front of the rim. After reviewing the film, it is apparent that this proposition is a little more difficult than one would presume.
In the above screen shot, we see Howard do exactly that early in the game. Because of the incredible shooting Houston puts around Howard, he has a ton of real estate to operate in, and any help defense (such as Nicolas Batum sagging off Chandler Parsons in the corner) leads to a very easy kick out. Although Howard misses, this is a good look for him. But Howard has only one other successful duck-in out of transition for the rest of the game, which illustrates three problems:
1. Robin Lopez is a pretty good defender. He knows Howard wants to do this, so he initiates contact farther up the lane and fights him from getting post position. Howard had several attempts during the game that were thwarted by Lopez.
2. Because of Houston's up-tempo offense, there are plenty of times when the shot is up before Howard has a chance to cross half court. This isn't a criticism as much as simple reality: Howard doesn't have as many opportunities to duck-in in transition.
3. Howard's teammates can be neglectful on offense. Part of the discipline of playing in a high-pace offense is managing to recognize opportunities on the floor, rather than becoming enamored with getting it up.
In the above screen shot, Howard has run the floor and is wide open under the rim. The closest Blazers defender is Batum (yellow arrow), whose is preoccupied by Omer Asik's presence, as well as ball-watching Jeremy Lin on the drive. Lin has to have the recognition to find Howard, not only because it's the right play but also because rewarding Howard for running the floor will encourage him to continue running it hard, which is good for everyone, as we'll see later.
So while what O'Neal is saying is technically accurate -- that Howard needs to run the floor and get duck-ins -- it is easier said than done.
Shaq Claim No. 2: 'Dwight needs to run the floor hard'
Ignoring for a moment that, after 2001, the Diesel himself was not thrilled about running the floor without the guarantee of a touch, O'Neal makes a valid point: Howard's desire to run the floor is left wanting.
Above, we see the fruit of Howard's labor: He isn't even necessarily running the floor full throttle (more of a light gallop), but because of the distance advantage he has on Lopez, the Blazers' defense is scrambling. Wes Matthews over-helps to stop the imminent danger of Howard running right down the lane for a dunk, leading to a wide-open Patrick Beverley in the right corner.
Running the floor hard is something all coaches encourage of bigs because of this very effect: Howard causes the defense to suck in and collapse, leading to open opportunities on the perimeter. As the defense adjusts, dunk, layup and duck-in opportunities present themselves for the big. Everyone wins, but it requires that initial sacrifice from the big to run with purpose several times in a row with no promise of seeing the ball.
Howard has a definite foot-speed advantage over Lopez. From the film, he seems to try to capitalize early: In the first quarter, he runs hard several times, but as the game wears on and teammates miss him wide open, his desire wanes and he often runs side-by-side. The screen shot above doesn't show him running with purpose; instead, it was the result of Lopez getting caught behind James Harden at the beginning of the possession. Howard should be able to create similar distance from Lopez in a footrace more often than not.
Shaq Claim No. 3: He should easily get 'three jump hooks a quarter [off post-ups]!'
O'Neal says that because Howard isn't getting doubled in the post, he should be able to get three jump hooks from his post play, implying that Howard is not fulfilling his full potential by not doing so. It's true, Portland rarely doubled him in Game 1, but the defense did collapse when he went into his move.
As you can see above, all five Blazers defenders are facing inward toward Howard as he goes into his rolling hook across the lane. It is imperative for Howard to recognize the help defense and find the two (three if you count Beverley in the corner) wide-open teammates at the 3-point line. It's something that Hakeem Olajuwon used to do frequently as he went across the middle: go into his hook but end up kicking out to shooters. Doing so keeps the defense honest, and gives Howard more room and time to operate.
But there's more: Look how far away Howard is from the rim. He doesn't have great touch away from the rim (he hasn't shot higher than 44 percent from that area in the past four years), and struggles to shoot over length (something Lopez and LaMarcus Aldridge have in abundance). Howard needs to fight harder for better post position, particularly when working against the slight-of-build Aldridge, or at the very least use his quickness advantage to get one extra step toward the rim and finish with a layup (to his credit, he adjusted and did this later in the game).