Let's cut to the chase and get this out of the way:
The Miami Heat have been better this postseason with Dwyane Wade on the bench than when he's in the game.
Grab your pitchforks! Time to start a riot! Simmer down now. The above sentence is a statement of fact, not opinion. We can just consult the scoreboard to tell us how the Heat have done with their All-Star in and out of the lineup.
When Wade has been on the court in the playoffs, the Heat have outscored opponents by 84 points in 593 minutes of action. That's pretty good.
But when he's on the bench? The Heat have gone from pretty good to pretty great, outscoring opponents by 84 points in less than half the time (276 minutes).
The difference becomes much clearer when we control for playing time. According to NBA.com, the Heat have outscored opponents this postseason by an even 8.0 points every 100 possessions with Wade on the floor, but that number swells to a lead of 16.9 points every 100 possessions when he hits the pine.
Yes, the accounting says that the Heat have been 8.9 points better every 100 possessions without Wade on the floor this postseason.
This isn't just an overreaction to Game 2, when the Heat went on a 33-5 run in the second half all while Wade (along with Chris Bosh) was a spectator on the bench. The Wade gulf was just about as wide before Sunday.
So, what do we do with this information? To some, it's time to push the panic button and ask hyperbolic questions. Should the Heat exercise their amnesty rights on Wade? Should the Heat trade him for a ball rack? Should "Wade County" be renamed to "Ray County"?
No. No need to go that far. But these numbers might be hinting at something else:
Should Wade come off the bench a la Manu Ginobili?
What plus/minus tells us
Let's go over some disclaimers about plus/minus and a nasty little thing called small sample size. The Heat have indeed been 8.9 points better with Wade on the bench this postseason. This is descriptive, not necessarily predictive. By that I mean that it tells us what has happened and not what will happen. There's a difference.
When we're dealing with a sample size of 17 games, the plus/minus data can get pretty wonky, potentially thrown off by fluky performances that have little or nothing to do with the player in question. If we look at a larger sample in the regular season, we find that the tables are actually turned: The Heat are 8.1 points better with Wade on the floor, according to NBA.com.
So if the larger sample size tells us something different, we can just throw away the postseason stuff, right?
Not so fast. The postseason numbers are different, most likely because Wade is different than he was in the regular season. Simply put, he's not as good as he was in the regular season.
The current state of Wade
This is why lineup data and plus/minus have grown in popularity the past few years. No longer do we have to wonder whether a star who is playing through injury is hurting the team. We can actually look this stuff up now.
What we find is that when Wade has left the game, the Heat's offense has gone gangbusters on its opponents. The Heat have scored 114.1 points per 100 possessions with Wade on the bench, compared with just 106.2 points per 100 possessions when he's on the court -- a sizable difference of 7.9 points per 100 possessions. For perspective, a 114.1 offensive rating would be the best in NBA history if it were for a full season. (As an aside, the Heat's defense has been pretty stable no matter whether Wade is in the game or towel waving on the bench.)
Now, let's take a breath and remove our head from the lineup microscope for a moment.
Wade's not right. His knee has been bothering him for three months, and he is readily admitting that he's dealing with some intense pain now and throughout the playoffs.
And the flat tire shows in the numbers. Wade's assists and rebounding numbers are down slightly, but the real problem is that he's averaging just 14.5 points on 44.4 percent shooting and getting to the free throw line just 3.8 times per game. Wade used to be the best scorer in the league, and now he's basically O.J. Mayo without a jump shot. (Mayo averaged 15.3 points this season on 44.9 percent shooting and took 4.3 3-pointers per game).
Of course, Wade affects the game in a variety of ways other than scoring, but getting buckets and doing so efficiently was what made Wade one of the best players in the league. But now he's struggling to do even that. He has scored at least 20 points in just two of his 17 games this postseason and hasn't shot 50 percent since Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Pacers. This is Dwyane Wade we're talking about here -- the same guy who battled through knee problems last postseason and averaged 22.8 points per game against tough competition.
That's not the case anymore.
Tracking Manu
When Wade and LeBron James joined forces in summer 2010, a debate raged about whether they could play together as two alpha dogs without a proven track record of playing off the ball. That discussion went down in flames as the Heat reached the Finals in Season 1 and won a title in Season 2.
Wade and James fit together because Wade was so good that fit did not matter. It's a different story now as he limps with a bruised knee that saps his explosiveness. It's time to wonder whether this version of Wade belongs next to James, or whether he would be better suited coming off the bench and anchoring the second unit. You know, the job of Ginobili.
LeBron James duos this postseason
Moving Wade to the bench in place of Ray Allen would accomplish two things: allow Wade to attack the opposing bench units with greater ease, and give James another knockdown 3-point shooter, which has proved to be a devastating combination in his career.
That 33-5 run Sunday with James surrounded by three 3-point shooters was not all a fluke. In the nearly 200 postseason minutes when James has three 3-point shooters around him (any trio of Allen, Mike Miller, Shane Battier, Mario Chalmers or Norris Cole), the Heat offense has scored an astounding 119.0 points per 100 possessions while allowing just 98.9 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA StatsCube. That's mercy-rule-type stuff.
We can boil this down to the fact that, when James is paired with Allen this postseason, the Heat have posted an offensive rating of 119.8, compared with a lukewarm 106.9 rating with Wade. The questions about Wade's compatibility with James used to be unfounded, but that was when Wade was healthy enough to penetrate and create easy buckets and pound the free throw line. But that's not the reality anymore. Pairing James with a high-usage guard who can't shoot makes Wade just about the worst companion.
Should coach Erik Spoelstra bring Wade off the bench immediately? Probably not. Such a move likely would rip the locker room apart and create all sorts of messy internal conflicts here in the Finals. That's a risk that might not be worth the reward, especially when the Heat just, you know, beat the Spurs by 19 points.
But down the line? Yes, this is something to monitor as Wade enters the downside of his career. Wade could have offseason surgery and be back to normal next season at age 32. But what if he isn't? There is precedent for Hall of Famers moving out of the starting lineup to maximize their efficiency and extend their careers.
To see the future, Wade just might have to look at the opposing bench here in the Finals.