Note: This is a new, updated version of ESPN's Future Power Rankings of NBA teams. The previous edition ran on March 2, 2010, the second edition launched on Dec. 15, 2009, and the first edition on Nov. 10, 2009.
The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider's projection of the on-court success expected for each team during the 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons.
Consider this a convenient way to see the direction your favorite team is headed.
Each of the NBA's 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 1,000, based on how well we expect each team to perform in the three seasons following this season.
To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories (see table at right).
As you can see, we determined that the most important category is a team's current roster and the future potential of those players -- that category accounts for 40 percent of each team's overall Future Power Rating.
At the same time, we looked at many other factors, such as management, ownership, coaching, a team's spending habits, its cap situation, the reputation of the city and the franchise, and what kind of draft picks we expected the team to have in the future.
With all the big moves around the league this summer, it's time for a new edition of the Future Power Rankings. Two important notes: (1) Now that the NBA calendar has flipped, we are evaluating the 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons; and (2) we are not considering the changes that might be made to the collective bargaining agreement, since there is no way to know how those changes will reshape the league.
We'll roll out our rankings over four days this week.
Here are our current rankings, from 11-30:
Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30
26. Toronto Raptors | Future Power Rating: 402
These are pretty depressing times to be a Raptors fan. Team president Bryan Colangelo miscalculated with the team he put around Chris Bosh, failed to move the power forward when he had the chance last year and then lost him for relatively nothing this offseason. Now Toronto is in worse shape than when Colangelo arrived on the scene in 2006.
Losing Bosh didn't have the same devastating effect that losing LeBron James had on the Cavs, but the Raptors still fell a whopping nine spots in our Future Power Rankings, a drop-off topped only by Cleveland's.
A bolting Bosh wasn't the only factor contributing to Toronto's slide. 2009 free-agent signing Hedo Turkoglu was a major disappointment and was jettisoned to Phoenix after only one season. Meanwhile, the Raptors continue to shop starting point guard Jose Calderon, whom at this point they would be happy to get rid of for salary-cap relief.
Furthermore, the Raptors ate up all their potential cap space by overpaying role players -- in a moment of apparent panic after Bosh's departure, Colangelo inexplicably gave Amir Johnson $34 million. Although the other summer additions, Leandro Barbosa and Linas Kleiza, will contribute, they won't save this sinking ship.
The only good news comes from a couple of young players who appear to have bright futures based on their talent and performances in the 2010 Las Vegas summer league. DeMar DeRozan had a breakout summer and has star ability if he puts it together. Toronto also lucked out when Ed Davis slipped to it at No. 13 in the draft, as he eventually could help fill Bosh's shoes.
(Previous rank: 17)
27. Phoenix Suns | Future Power Rating: 399
The enthusiasm over the Suns' terrific run to the Western Conference finals was seriously dampened by a pretty crappy June and July.
When team president and GM Steve Kerr resigned, owner Robert Sarver took over front-office operations and managed to do a great deal of damage in just a few weeks.
First he lost Amare Stoudemire in free agency, and then he took on Hedo Turkoglu's huge contract while also overpaying Josh Childress (who plays the same position as Turkoglu), Channing Frye and Hakim Warrick. Sarver eventually brought on respected player agent Lon Babby as the team's new president, but at that point, most of the damage had been done.
Sarver's moves will help keep the Suns respectable for the moment, but for the future, the picture is bleak. As Steve Nash ages, it's hard to imagine how the role players Phoenix has put around him will be able to prevent a Suns slide into irrelevance.
(Previous rank: 25)
28. Cleveland Cavaliers | Future Power Rating: 331
We hate to pour salt on the wound, but LeBron's "Decision" destroyed his hometown franchise now and for the foreseeable future. Cavaliers fans continue to insist that it's the way LeBron ditched them that has caused so much anger, but over time, the real pain will be watching this Cavs team without him.
In his open letter condemning LeBron, owner Dan Gilbert guaranteed the Cavs would win a championship without their former star, but that's easier said than done. Cleveland traditionally has not been a top free-agent destination. Now, the team has another problem: Gilbert's heat-of-the-moment diatribe against LeBron was read by players around the league, and a number of player agents have told us their clients don't want to play there after seeing how Gilbert treated a guy who made him hundreds of millions during the past several years. In any case, as we've seen this summer, players just won't flock to Cleveland without the lure of LeBron.
The roster itself is another weak point. Mo Williams, Ramon Sessions, Anderson Varejao and J.J. Hickson are good pieces but not the kind of young talent that could carry the franchise forward in future seasons. The Cavs lack trade assets as well.
Cleveland did get a bounty of draft picks from Miami in the LeBron sign-and-trade. But given how stacked the Heat are right now, those picks likely will be the worst in the first round -- and the Cavs aren't going to replace LeBron with a series of No. 30 draft picks.
(Previous rank: 8)
29. Minnesota Timberwolves | Future Power Rating: 326
The baffling tenure of general manager David Kahn and the long-running incompetence of owner Glen Taylor combine to give the Timberwolves the lowest score for management in our ratings. A $20 million deal to Darko Milicic, a bizarre infatuation with Milwaukee point guards and a sweetheart of a trade that sent out Al Jefferson are the major points of contention, but there are plenty of others. In short, nobody is quite sure whether he's coming or going.
Minnesota has two other negatives. The first is a built-in one called winter, which helps make it one of the least favorable markets. But the second was inflicted by the previous and equally disastrous regime of Kevin McHale: There's a good chance the Timberwolves will owe the Clippers a completely unprotected first-round draft pick in 2012.
The Wolves aren't devoid of talent; Kevin Love, Michael Beasley and, if he ever arrives, Ricky Rubio, are three nice pieces. Additionally, they'll have as much cap room as anyone, and Taylor has shown he's willing to spend. But the structure isn't in place for success.
(Previous rank: 27)
30. Charlotte Bobcats | Future Power Rating: 176
Despite the Bobcats' first playoff appearance last season, we remain more bearish on their future than on any other team's. In fact, Charlotte not only came in last in our ratings, it also achieved barely half the score of the No. 29 Timberwolves. (How's that for a slogan: "Our future is twice as bleak as Minnesota's!")
The Bobcats continue to accumulate veteran players with bad contracts and lack the financial resources to get out of the hole that awaits them. They have one decent young player (Tyrus Thomas) but still owe a future first-round pick to the Bulls for him, and they already have started stripping the roster, losing point guard Raymond Felton without a fight and swapping Tyson Chandler in a deal that hardly saved any money and dashed any hope of having significant cap space in 2011.
Unfortunately, the short-term mindset of both new majority owner Michael Jordan and coach Larry Brown is likely to make matters worse. Brown's draft input has been particularly disastrous -- instead of grabbing Ty Lawson, Brook Lopez and Nicolas Batum, the Bobcats' past three first-rounders were Alexis Ajinca, D.J. Augustin and Gerald Henderson. In that sense, perhaps it's a good thing they already traded away next year's pick.
(Previous rank: 30)
Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30
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