Note: This is a new, updated version of ESPN's Future Power Rankings of NBA teams. The previous edition ran on March 2, 2010, the second edition launched on Dec. 15, 2009, and the first edition on Nov. 10, 2009.
The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider's projection of the on-court success expected for each team during the 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons.
Consider this a convenient way to see the direction your favorite team is headed.
Each of the NBA's 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 1,000, based on how well we expect each team to perform in the three seasons following this season.
To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories (see table at right).
As you can see, we determined that the most important category is a team's current roster and the future potential of those players -- that category accounts for 40 percent of each team's overall Future Power Rating.
At the same time, we looked at many other factors, such as management, ownership, coaching, a team's spending habits, its cap situation, the reputation of the city and the franchise, and what kind of draft picks we expected the team to have in the future.
With all the big moves around the league this summer, it's time for a new edition of the Future Power Rankings. Two important notes: (1) Now that the NBA calendar has flipped, we are evaluating the 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons; and (2) we are not considering the changes that might be made to the collective bargaining agreement, since there is no way to know how those changes will reshape the league.
We'll roll out our rankings over four days this week.
Here are our current rankings, from 11-30:
Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30
21. Golden State Warriors | Future Power Rating: 450
Rejoice, Warriors fans. After spending a year near the very bottom of our Future Power Rankings, thanks to a terrible management rating, Golden State is moving up. Chris Cohan is selling the team, and while we don't know what the new owners will do, we're confident they can't make as big a mess as Cohan, GM Larry Riley and coach Don Nelson have made.
Still, the Warriors aren't ready to join the NBA's elite. Stephen Curry is a terrific talent, and he'll have a solid new pick-and-roll partner in David Lee. But the Warriors gave up promising youngster Anthony Randolph to get Lee, whose new $80 million contract is also a big one for the team to carry. And lottery pick Ekpe Udoh, out for five months with a wrist injury, will be an unproven 23-year-old rookie when he finally suits up with the Warriors.
In part, Golden State's future depends on how things go with Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins, who appear to be available. Whether they are Warriors building blocks or can be traded for players that help the team fill its many holes, they are important young assets. That will be a big test for the new management team, when that team is in place.
(Previous rank: 28)
22. Detroit Pistons | Future Power Rating: 444
Add the Pistons to the ever-growing list of problems in Detroit. After an amazing run last decade, Detroit fans can no longer be confident in the franchise's future.
Owner Bill Davidson has passed away and the team is up for sale. The Pistons lack a legitimate star, are stuck with a couple of bad contracts on their books, have no long-term solutions in the middle and have been plagued by injuries and apathy. And fans are no longer flocking to the Palace like they used to.
One problem is that they don't have much to rally around, and team president Joe Dumars didn't shake things up this summer, either. Greg Monroe is a rookie with potential, but Pistons fans will need to be patient after his up-and-down performance in summer league. Among the youngsters, Austin Daye has shown promise and Jonas Jerebko should be a good role player. Veterans Rodney Stuckey and Ben Gordon are solid building blocks. But none of them is enough to get fans excited.
For the Pistons to progress further than we've projected here, they'll need to get Richard Hamilton off the books, trade Tayshaun Prince for something of value before his contract expires after the 2010-11 season and get strong development from their young players. That adds up to a lot of ifs for a franchise that once seemed the steadiest in the NBA.
(Previous rank: 20)
23. New Orleans Hornets | Future Power Rating: 434
It's a good-news, bad-news situation in New Orleans. The good news is that the Hornets' disastrous cap situation will ease after this season, especially if they can pay somebody to take James Posey off their hands. Alas, New Orleans could be facing an even worse problem. Point guard Chris Paul appears to be trying to force his way out of town, taking with him the Hornets' lone source of star power.
Even with the superstar guard, it's hard to get excited about the team's future. They have two good young guards in Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton and a minor star in power forward David West. The ownership is in flux while George Shinn negotiates a sale to Gary Chouest; the threadbare front office is now under the control of Dell Demps, who was fourth on the totem pole in San Antonio until his recent hiring; and the market is one of the least appealing for free agents. And while it's possible the Hornets could be well under the cap next summer, it's also possible West could leave as a free agent.
(Previous rank: 24)
24. Memphis Grizzlies | Future Power Rating: 428
Memphis has some pretty decent players, even if Zach Randolph doesn't stick around, and the fact the Grizzlies actually paid one of them to stay (Rudy Gay) is a positive sign going forward -- even if the deal wasn't terribly sensible. Memphis is in a good position cap-wise going forward, too, so its rating in the "money" category improved significantly from last time.
Unfortunately, the negatives still strongly outweigh the positives. Owner Michael Heisley has largely usurped the GM role from Chris Wallace, with disastrous consequences -- most recently the selection of center Hasheem Thabeet -- and that's why the Grizzlies' management ranks 28th. And it's hard to get too giddy about the money when they're locked in a salary tussle with first-round pick Xavier Henry. Regardless of Randolph's future, the Gay-O.J. Mayo-Marc Gasol nucleus will prevent the Grizzlies from being terrible, but it's also hard to see them taking many steps forward.
(Previous rank: 23)
25. Philadelphia 76ers | Future Power Rating: 404
The Sixers, coming off a 27-win season, will probably continue to struggle for a while. But the addition of college player of the year Evan Turner and the potential of second-year point guard Jrue Holiday provide hope. With Andre Iguodala, Thaddeus Young and Lou Williams returning as well, Philly fans can be somewhat optimistic.
The problem, as Sixers fans are well aware, is that GM Ed Stefanski's plan for the team is still a mystery. In recent years Philadelphia has signed Elton Brand to a huge contract, let Andre Miller walk to save money, brought in another expensive veteran in Andres Nocioni, traded away center Samuel Dalembert, hired and fired coach Eddie Jordan, hired a new coach in Doug Collins and made other moves that demonstrate no particular direction. So while the Sixers have an interesting young core, the team is also bogged down by players with bad contracts, is overloaded with overlapping talents and lacks shooting and an inside defensive presence.
Philly also has no real ability to spend until the summer of 2013 and will be just good enough to pick in the late lottery (or lower) each year, significantly hindering its chances of becoming any better in the short term.
(Previous rank: 22)
Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30
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