A COUPLE OF WEEKS back, the Milwaukee Bucks and Minnesota Timberwolves squared off in a game that only a few years ago would have been historic but in 2021 is just another Tuesday night. In a sparsely filled Fiserv Forum, the two teams attempted 96 3-point shots -- one every 30 seconds.
Of the 22 players who took the floor, 19 of them took at least one 3. Wolves rookie Anthony Edwards is a marvel leaping off two feet, as witnessed by his recent dunk of the year spectacular -- though you wouldn't know it from this performance. The 31.4% 3-point shooter jacked up two attempts in the third quarter off the dribble from 26 feet, with 16 and 14 seconds remaining on the shot clock, respectively. Likewise, two-time reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, the league's most devastating finisher and still trying to cultivate an outside game, twice breezed across half court and launched an early triple.
It was hard to argue with the results: Nine of the 10 Bucks who logged minutes attempted a 3-pointer, and only Antetokounmpo (1-for-3) and Pat Connaughton (1-for-4) hit at worse than a 40% rate for the game. And Minnesota's performance wasn't awful -- a 35.2% clip that is comfortably above the NBA's Mendoza Line.
For a growing number of NBA executives and coaches, the problem isn't that NBA offenses are wrong for firing up an average of 35 attempts per game from long distance. The problem is that they're right. It would be tactical malpractice for any team to swear off the 3-pointer. There are a handful of players whose midrange 2-point attempt represents a high-percentage shot, but for the vast majority of players, the best shot is one from behind the 3-point line or at the rim.
Recent conversations with multiple league insiders about the state of the game reveal a consistent theme: As the rate of 3-pointers has exploded, the NBA might finally be reaching a critical mass. Some raise concerns because they believe the 3-ball has created a monotonous rhythm to each game, while others believe it has distorted the scoring system that determines wins and losses.
"You can go overboard -- those nights you get 45 and 50 [attempts]," said Detroit Pistons coach Dwane Casey, whose team ranks 11th in percentage of field goals attempted that are 3-pointers. "Your quality of shots is going down, and there's going to be quick possessions. It kind of dilutes the spirit of the game and the soul of the game. It's about moving the ball from side to side, not just coming down and jacking up quick 3s."
Measures that have been implemented over the past 20 years to help jump-start scoring are approaching an age of overcorrection. In an effort to lift the game out of the '90s mud -- "The poster-child image of that period is Mark Jackson posting up Charlie Ward," said Dallas Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle -- the NBA might have created too much of a good thing.
THERE'S LITTLE DESIRE across the league to return to Patrick Ewing vs. Alonzo Mourning, but there's also a sense that the game is losing diversity of identity, at least offensively. This school of thought maintains that a stylistic conformity has overtaken the game. One of the more appealing characteristics of basketball is the number of ways a player can score, but a 3-pointer every 30 to 45 seconds introduces a repetition that isn't so appealing.
"With all sports or competitive endeavors, you want there to be a strategic dynamic where there are multiple paths to victory," said Daryl Morey, Philadelphia 76ers president of basketball operations. "You want measures and countermeasures that are pretty well-balanced, so that you can go down any one of those paths and get a victory if the path is chosen well and executed well. But the NBA right now appears to be somewhat unbalanced, in large part because the reward given for the 3 being worth 50% more than a 2 is out of balance."
Morey is anything but a back-in-the-day purist, and the Houston Rockets teams he previously presided over helped to fashion the trend of launching 3s with impunity. Today, there is only one ideological school in the NBA regarding these shots: pro. Everyone takes them, which has rendered them anything but special and largely unworthy of extra-credit points. In a dynamic market where a bucket could be worth a fraction of a point, the NBA could reset the value of a 3-pointer to bring it into balance. But "Curry for 2⅝!" would probably doom the game -- deservedly.
There's also the compounding effect of all these deep looks. Just the consistent threat of a 3-pointer allows the spacing for creators to find the other hyperefficient way to score -- a shot at the basket. As offenses now field four or even five shooters on the floor, and dynamos such as Stephen Curry and Damian Lillard must be accounted for at 30 feet or beyond, defenses simply have too much ground to cover to properly challenge the barrage of long-range shots. Efficiency begets efficiency.
"It often looks like no defense is being played," Casey said. "But when there are four shooters on the floor and a big man at the dunker [spot], spacing is inflated and a defense is stretched to its limit. Guys are working, but it's impossible to cover that much ground against NBA speed, quickness and power."
Including the playoffs, 61 games in NBA history have featured at least 90 3-point attempts -- and 45 of the 61 have occurred since the start of last season, according to ESPN Sports & Information. The 3-pointer now represents 39.4% of all field goal attempts -- that's up 61% from the 2011-12 season. For those who welcome or accept the ascendance of the 3, this is a feature not a bug. Carlisle, who has served as the president of the NBA Coaches Association for more than 15 years, believes that change is a defining characteristic of basketball, as is adaptation to the new reality by players and coaches at every level.
Changes to the way the NBA was officiated -- first with regard to illegal defense in the early 2000s, then by severely limiting contact between a defender and a ball handler -- liberated perimeter players and put a newfound premium on outside shooting. The result was a generation of players, irrespective of size, who had to expand their games if they wanted to achieve at the next level.
"I don't think we can call it a bad thing when players are highly skilled, which is what the game should be about," Carlisle said. "The 3-point shot has revolutionized our game. Taking a dribble-up 3 six or seven years ago was a cardinal sin. And now we're all doing drills where guys shoot dribble-up 3s -- and we include our 7-3 center in those drills. The value of this sort of 3-point shot is big. So this may become a shifting conversation to, 'How do we fortify our teams with the right kind of defenders who can still shoot the ball, drive it and make plays?'"
While offenses appear increasingly alike, their firepower has inspired more defensive diversity than ever. The variety of pick-and-roll coverages continues to metastasize, as switching has evolved from a novelty to standard over the last decade. All the while, we've seen everything from the box-and-one to the kind of hybrid zone that Casey cooked up when he presided over the defense a decade ago in Dallas under Carlisle.
Casey says that the volume of 3-point shots is, in large part, a result of those well-intentioned efforts to create more space on the floor for a free-flowing game. The deluge of 3-pointers that has followed isn't entirely a product of kids trying to imitate Curry but a consequence of a game when those kids are often wide open because spacing has been inflated.
"One primary thing that triggers all those 3-point shots is penetration," Casey said. "When you can't touch anybody, you are going to give up penetration. But these are hard conversations."
WHERE AND WHEN the trajectory levels out and 3-pointers are no longer a growth commodity in the NBA is unknown. The league could soon see a day when more than 50% of attempted shots are fired from beyond the arc, or it could see the advent of creative defenses led by a generation of players who can stem the tide. Just as likely, those who govern the NBA may believe that reining in the 3-pointer is a solution in search of a problem.
Given the 50% premium for a shot that's rarely 50% more difficult, getting players to wean themselves off 3-pointers wouldn't come without some significant changes to the incentive structure.
If it wanted to, the NBA could afford defenders more latitude in impeding penetration. At the beginning of the 2018 season, "freedom of movement" was a point of emphasis for game officials, with the intention of almost eliminating any hint of grabbing and arm wraps. The return of handchecking is a non-starter, but finding a happy medium between aggravated assault and a spa day could give NBA defenses a fighting chance to impede today's shot creators. Fans would still be treated to Luka Doncic's unconscionable crossover and step-back 3, but they would also be spared more than five breezy attempts per night from Darius Bazley.
Freeing up big men to zone up however they see fit would add another speed bump in front of drivers and slashers. If the center wants to patrol the paint in a "perma-drop" scheme, that's the defense's prerogative. My ESPN colleague Kirk Goldsberry has a bevy of interesting suggestions, ranging from custom lines to getting rid of the short corner 3.
A more radical proposal from a longtime league power broker who wishes to remain anonymous (unless the idea gains traction) would curb inflation by limiting supply: Cap the amount of 3-pointers a team can take over the course of a game.
Over the first 42 minutes of the game, each team would have the chance to attempt 20 shots from beyond the arc that would count for three points. Once an offense runs out of those 20 attempts, it can keep shooting from behind the line, but each subsequent make would count for only two points -- until the 6:00 mark of the fourth quarter, when attempts would once again worth three points until the game is over. The 3-ball is still the most reliable and entertaining way for teams to mount comebacks at all levels of basketball, so it's smart to showcase them at the game's most dramatic moments.
Under these rules, an offense would need to be strategic and selective with its 3s. Use up all your attempts before halftime and you'll have trouble keeping the opposing defense honest. Leaving a shooter open in the corner is far less punitive when it costs only two points. Every impulse attempt used by Antetokounmpo is one fewer for Bryn Forbes (45.6%) or Khris Middleton (43.6%). For the first time in years, offenses would be forced to truly discriminate between good, average and bad 3-point looks.
The reform would also encourage every kind of player to broaden his skill set. For the past 15 years, big men have been told they need to learn to expand their range. Under the new rule, unidimensional shooters would need to pick up some new tricks to stay on the floor. No one should want to see less of the Damian Lillard and Steph Curry half-court show from Sunday's All-Star Game. But the value of parking a 35% 3-point shooter in the corner to maximize a middle pick-and-roll would plummet, as offenses would have to grow more creative if they want to truly stretch a defense or force a rotation.
A successful league remains in a constant state of vigilance about the character of its product and the path of its trends. Scoring, and the 3-pointer in particular, revitalized NBA basketball at some of its most precarious moments when it threatened to fall behind the NHL, then again two decades later when it lost its aesthetic appeal. But uniformity presents its own risk. The more times you witness a phenomenon, the less phenomenal it is.