How much will the Indiana Pacers miss Domantas Sabonis if he's unable to return and play after leaving the NBA's campus to seek the treatment of a specialist for plantar fasciitis in his left foot, as first reported by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski?
The answer to that question might depend on the availability of the first-time All-Star's teammate, shooting guard Victor Oladipo. After initially indicating he would not play during the restart of the 2019-20 season, Oladipo has practiced with the team and played in Indiana's opening scrimmage against the Portland Trail Blazers on Thursday.
How weakened will Indiana be without Sabonis and potentially Oladipo, and what impact will that have on the rest of the Eastern Conference playoff race? Let's take a look.
Pacers likely to go smaller
With the 6-foot-11 Sabonis unavailable, we'll probably see smaller lineups from Indiana coach Nate McMillan. On Thursday, he started a frontcourt of two players listed at 6-foot-7: Alize Johnson and JaKarr Sampson. In addition to Sabonis, the Pacers were also without starting center Myles Turner and rookie backup center Goga Bitadze. While Turner's calf injury doesn't appear serious, J. Michael of the Indianapolis Star reported earlier this week that Bitadze had yet to practice since Indiana arrived at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex -- potentially leaving Turner as Indiana's only legitimate center.
I'd expect McMillan to start Sampson, who has gotten the call to open 10 games this season -- including all three missed by Sabonis. But he likely won't be on the court to finish games. (In those 10 starts, Sampson has averaged just 20.5 mpg.) Instead, Indiana will likely move starting small forward T.J. Warren down to power forward as part of lineups that boast more shooting and quickness.
Additionally, we'll likely see more minutes for backup forward Doug McDermott at power forward instead of small forward. He has already played a slight majority of his minutes (54%) there this season, per my analysis of lineup data from NBA Advanced Stats.
Sliding McDermott and Warren down makes more sense for the Pacers than going deep into their bench, where their other backup bigs have seen little action this season. Johnson played just 54 minutes, while 2017 first-round pick T.J. Leaf -- who played off the bench behind him on Thursday -- logged 193 minutes. Even Bitadze (410 minutes) was used sparingly this season.
Smaller lineups means more need for Oladipo
So how will McMillan fill out lineups that move McDermott and Warren to power forward instead of small forward, where they played a combined 54% of the team's minutes during the regular season? Hopefully with Oladipo, whose presence becomes all the more vital for Indiana as a result.
Remember, the Pacers are already down their starting shooting guard prior to Oladipo's return, Jeremy Lamb. Lamb tore his ACL in February and is out for the season. As a result, Indiana's perimeter depth will be severely stressed if Oladipo indeed decides not to play in the restart.
Assuming Sampson plays around 20 minutes per game at power forward and Turner and Bitadze split time in the middle, that leaves 172 minutes per game for the Pacers to fill from their perimeter players. Indiana's six remaining primary options (McDermott, Warren, Malcolm Brogdon, Aaron and Justin Holiday and T.J. McConnell) combined to average slightly more than 150 minutes this season. Get beyond them and Indiana must turn to defensive specialist Edmond Sumner, a non-shooter (he's 10-of-38 from 3-point range this season).
Projecting the East playoff race
The Pacers head to Florida tied with the Philadelphia 76ers for the fifth seed, one they'd currently win by a virtue of a 2-1 lead in the season series. But Indiana and Philadelphia will play a fourth and final time on Aug. 1 in the first seeding game for both sides, and a Sixers win would push the tiebreaker to conference record -- in which Philadelphia currently has a two-game lead over the Pacers.
Indiana's schedule of seeding games also features a pair of matchups against the Miami Heat, who are currently two games ahead of both the Pacers and 76ers for fourth in the East. Because there will be no home-court advantage in the restart, finishing fourth or fifth isn't a meaningful distinction. But none of these teams will particularly want to fall to sixth and face either the Boston Celtics or Toronto Raptors, a potentially more difficult first-round opponent.
Already, the Pacers looked most likely to end up sixth in the East, finishing there in 46% of my simulations of seeding games with Sabonis as part of their projection. Philadelphia has the second-easiest schedule of seeding games according to my projections, and while Miami's schedule rates more difficult, the Heat have that two-game edge and have won both head-to-head meetings thus far. Even if Indiana managed to tie Miami, the Heat's 28-10 conference record would assure them the tiebreaker.
Besides the three teams battling for seeding, how they finish also has important ramifications for the team that finishes third in the East -- most likely the Celtics, though they close the three-game gap on the second-place Raptors in about 15% of simulations. Boston would surely much rather face a short-handed Indiana team, having beaten the Pacers with Oladipo on the road the day before the stoppage, than a Philadelphia team that has gone 3-1 against the Celtics this season.
If Oladipo decides not to play, that also could have an impact on how hard Boston and Toronto push for the second seed. That won't matter if the two teams face each other in the conference semifinals, leaving the only value of the 2-seed as which opponent teams face in the first round. A weakened Indiana team may no longer be a much worse option than the Orlando Magic if they finish seventh.