With the new 2020 NBA schedule out, how will the playoff races shape up, who will advance to the Finals and which team will win it all in October?
There's more uncertainty this year about how teams will perform, with players largely sidelined for 4½ months before play resumes on July 30, and with all the games being played without fans at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Orlando, Florida.
Still, we can take a look at the players available and the schedule announced Friday by the NBA on ESPN to get an idea what to expect. I've used the multiyear, predictive version of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) to project the eight seeding games, possible play-in matchups and full postseason 500 times.
Let's take a look at the results, what we can learn from them and who should be favored in this unique NBA postseason.
Play-in possibilities
The most unusual aspect of the NBA restart format is a possible play-in tournament in each conference to determine the eighth seeds. These games will take place if the team in ninth is within four games of the team in eighth. Let's break down the probability of that happening in the West and the East.
A play-in matchup is naturally much more likely in the West, where five teams have been invited to try to knock out the current eighth-place team, the Memphis Grizzlies. In more than 90% of simulations, we end up with a gap of four games or fewer between eighth and ninth, with the Grizzlies typically -- but not always -- entering as the eighth seed. In that case, the play-in format requires them to win just one game, of two possible games, to advance to the playoffs.
The New Orleans Pelicans are the most likely team currently outside the playoffs to earn their way into a play-in matchup, doing so better than half the time. That is based on a combination of being -- with a healthy Zion Williamson -- the top-rated contender for eighth by RPM and having the easiest schedule of seeding games. In fact, the Pelicans make up the entire 3.5-game deficit and pass Memphis for eighth almost one-fifth of the time.
In our projections, Portland's chances of reaching the play-in matchup are hampered by the loss of starting forward Trevor Ariza, who will not play in Orlando to participate in a visitation period with his son. The Blazers do still have an edge on the Sacramento Kings, nominally tied at 3.5 games back of eighth, by virtue of a winning percentage one-thousandth of a point better. The San Antonio Spurs and Phoenix Suns, who have to pass three and four teams, respectively, are long shots to make the play-in matchup.
In the East, impending free agent Davis Bertans' decision to sit out the restart further hampered the Washington Wizards' faint chances of making up two games on either the Brooklyn Nets or Orlando Magic to force a play-in matchup. Without Bertans, the Wizards win just two of their eight scheduled games on average. The Magic, a half-game back of the Nets, are slightly more likely to be involved if there is an East play-in.
Playoff seeding
The seeding games also will determine seeds entering the playoffs, and there are a few key races to watch in the East. The Boston Celtics, three games back of the Toronto Raptors, still have an outside chance of catching Toronto for second -- which would affect the teams' first-round matchups, though no longer home-court advantage in a possible matchup in the conference semifinals.
Meanwhile, fourth through sixth remain up for grabs between the Miami Heat, Indiana Pacers and Philadelphia 76ers, with those three teams separated by just two games heading to Orlando.
The top two seeds in the West are close to set, though the Denver Nuggets have an outside chance of passing the LA Clippers for second.
The big battle in the West is from 3 through 7, with four teams separated by 2.5 games and another (the Dallas Mavericks) 1.5 games back. Assuming the Clippers stay in second, avoiding the seventh seed will be important, and the Mavericks move out of that spot better than half the time.
How far will each team advance?
Championship chances
As seen in the chart above, the Milwaukee Bucks are about twice as likely as the Los Angeles Lakers to win the title, according to our projections. Even so, the Bucks are under 50% and the title chase remains relatively wide open, with six teams at 5% or better to win, including the defending champion Raptors.
To account for playoff rotations, I used separate minutes projections for the postseason than for the eight seeding games -- which the teams atop both conferences might treat more like an extended preseason than the regular season. Those projections narrow the gap between the top-rated Bucks and their challengers, most notably the Lakers, though not entirely so.
One surprise from the RPM projections is that they rate the Clippers substantially behind the Lakers, making them less likely to win the title than the Raptors. (The Clippers also face a much more difficult potential first-round matchup, hurting their chances of getting through to face the Lakers.) Your mileage may vary there.
RPM is relatively higher on the Rockets' chances of being a dark horse to win the championship -- qualifying for their GM Daryl Morey's "5% theory" for focusing on doing whatever is possible or necessary to win a championship beyond that point.
Denver, by contrast, rates relatively poorly by RPM compared to the team's spot in the standings (third in the West). The Nuggets and Jazz are both underdogs to win a first-round matchup in these projections, with Houston, Oklahoma City and Dallas better bets to advance in the West.
Now let's see how well this unique NBA postseason matches the simulations!