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          New NBA playoff projections: How the Grizzlies' woes change the West

          Ja Morant and his Memphis teammates will have to continue their playoff chase without Jaren Jackson Jr. Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images
          • Kevin Pelton, ESPN Senior WriterAug 4, 2020, 08:19 PM ET
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            • Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series
            • Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers
            • Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE system
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          Do the Memphis Grizzlies have enough to hold on and make the play-in tournament without Jaren Jackson Jr.? Or will their West rivals elbow them out?

          On Tuesday, the Grizzlies announced that their second-year forward will miss the rest of the 2019-20 season because of a meniscus tear in his left knee. That appears to open the door for several teams chasing Memphis -- particularly the New Orleans Pelicans, Portland Trail Blazers and San Antonio Spurs and perhaps the Phoenix Suns.

          I've simulated the remaining seeding games 500 times to see how the race plays out.

          Let's take a look.