Do the Memphis Grizzlies have enough to hold on and make the play-in tournament without Jaren Jackson Jr.? Or will their West rivals elbow them out?
On Tuesday, the Grizzlies announced that their second-year forward will miss the rest of the 2019-20 season because of a meniscus tear in his left knee. That appears to open the door for several teams chasing Memphis -- particularly the New Orleans Pelicans, Portland Trail Blazers and San Antonio Spurs and perhaps the Phoenix Suns.
I've simulated the remaining seeding games 500 times to see how the race plays out.
Let's take a look.
Memphis Grizzlies
• Finish eighth in 61% of simulations
• Finish ninth in 28% of simulations
• Reach playoffs in 41% of simulations
Jackson was a bright spot during Memphis' 0-3 start in seeding games, averaging 25.3 points and 3.3 3-pointers.
Already, the slow start had put the Grizzlies' hold on the eighth seed in jeopardy. It's unlikely that Memphis can create the four-game separation from the ninth seed necessary to avoid a play-in with all five playoff contenders currently closer than four games in the standings. With three teams -- the Blazers, Spurs and Pelicans -- within three games, it's no sure thing that the Grizzlies will enter the play-in in eighth or make it at all.
Memphis' rocky start in the seeding games means that the Grizzlies' chances of falling all the way to 10th and out of the playoff picture (which happens in about 11% of simulations) are now much better than their chances of finishing up by more than four games on ninth and advancing directly to the playoffs (which happened once in the 500 runs).
That said, the Grizzlies are still in decent position because of the cushion they took into the restart. They still reach the playoffs as the eighth seed more than any other team. But to turn those projections into reality, Memphis needs to find a win or two against difficult competition, with all five remaining opponents boasting winning percentages of better than .620.
If they're looking for an encouraging note, the Grizzlies managed to do that on Feb. 29, when they crushed the Lakers by 17 in Memphis without Jackson or his backup, rookie Brandon Clarke.
One bit of good news for Memphis is that Clarke will play more minutes with starting center Jonas Valanciunas, the team's best frontcourt duo this season. Among Memphis duos who have played at least 250 minutes together, the Clarke-Valanciunas combo ranks third, with a net rating of plus-10.8 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA Advanced Stats.
Digging deeper, however, the success that Clarke and Valanciunas have enjoyed together might not be sustainable.
Per Second Spectrum tracking, opponents have posted an effective field goal percentage (eFG%, which treats 3-pointers as 1.5 field goals to reflect their added value) of 44.2% on shots outside the paint this season against the Clarke-Valanciunas frontcourt. Over the course of the season, no team has held opponents below a 47.5% eFG% on these shots, which suggests some fortunate misses for the Grizzlies.
With Clarke probably moving into the starting five, Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins will probably call on veteran center Gorgui Dieng to reenter the rotation after taking DNP-CDs in the team's first three seeding games. We'll also probably see more Grizzlies small ball with starting small forward Kyle Anderson sliding to power forward, creating more playing time for reserves Grayson Allen and De'Anthony Melton on the perimeter.
Ideally, Memphis can help offset Jackson's loss with the return of backup point guard Tyus Jones, who has been badly missed so far in the restart after being sidelined by knee soreness. He has already been ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Utah Jazz. Bench units featuring Clarke, Jones and Melton drove much of the Grizzlies' success during the regular season, and that hasn't been the case so far without Jones' playmaking. Memphis has been outscored by 7.4 points per 100 possessions with starting point guard Ja Morant on the bench after playing relatively even with opponents (minus-2.2 net rating) during the regular season.
New Orleans Pelicans
• Finish eighth in 22% of simulations
• Finish ninth in 28% of simulations
• Reach playoffs in 36% of simulations
After beating the Grizzlies on Monday, the Pelicans have nearly moved even with them in terms of playoff chances. New Orleans now has a good shot to climb into eighth by taking care of business against a relatively light schedule in the rest of the seeding games. Three of the Pelicans' next four games are against the Sacramento Kings (twice) and Washington Wizards, two teams that have been all but eliminated from playoff contention after early seeding losses.
Having lost the first two seeding games to playoff-bound opponents (the Jazz and LA Clippers), New Orleans won't play another team with an above-.500 record the rest of the way. Add more playing time for Zion Williamson as he works back from missing nearly two weeks, and the Pelicans are poised to make a move up the standings.
Portland Trail Blazers
• Finish eighth in 13% of simulations
• Finish ninth in 20% of simulations
• Reach playoffs in 15% of simulations
A narrow loss to the Boston Celtics on Sunday knocked the Blazers out of the role of favored challenger to Memphis, but Portland is still very much in the mix for a play-in spot. By virtue of their de facto tiebreaker of having one more win and one more loss than the San Antonio Spurs, the Blazers would be the ninth seed if the season ended today.
Portland's remaining schedule is challenging but not quite as daunting as it once appeared because the Denver Nuggets are short-handed, and the Dallas Mavericks and Philadelphia 76ers have been struggling so far in seeding games.
San Antonio Spurs
• Finish eighth in 1% of simulations
• Finish ninth in 13% of simulations
• Reach playoffs in 3% of simulations
The Spurs were a stop away from sole possession of ninth after Monday's game against Philadelphia before Shake Milton's 3-pointer put the first blemish on their seeding record and knocked them into a virtual tie with Portland. The schedule will become more challenging from here, with only the Pelicans left as a below-.500 opponent, though San Antonio could take advantage of both Denver and Utah being at less than full strength.
The big question for the Spurs is whether they can maintain their strong shooting so far in seeding games. San Antonio has hit 44% of its 3-point attempts, which wouldn't be surprising except that the team's two leading 3-point shooters during the regular season (the injured Bryn Forbes and Patty Mills) have combined to make only four so far. Instead, Derrick White has led the way, making 11-of-23 3-pointers after averaging less than one per game during the regular season.
Phoenix Suns
• Finish eighth in 1% of simulations
• Finish ninth in 6% of simulations
• Reach playoffs in 2% of simulations
Kudos to the Suns for demonstrating that they belonged in the bubble as the last West team to be invited. Phoenix has started 3-0 with impressive back-to-back wins over playoff-bound opponents (the Mavericks and Clippers).
Still, Phoenix probably has too many teams to pass to make the play-in tournament. At some point, the Suns' opponents might make a 3-pointer after hitting a combined 26.8% so far in Orlando, easily the lowest mark by the opponents of any team that has played three seeding games.
Sacramento Kings
• Finish eighth in 1% of simulations
• Finish ninth in 2% of simulations
• Reach playoffs in 2% of simulations
Tuesday's loss to the Mavericks, who rallied from a six-point deficit by holding the Kings scoreless in the last 5:17 of regulation, all but eliminated Sacramento from play-in contention. The Kings, who started in a three-way tie for ninth in the standings, have dropped to 13th.