The Bucks sign-and-trade guard Brandon Jennings to the Pistons in exchange for guard Brandon Knight, forward Khris Middleton and center Viacheslav Kravtsov.
• See the news story on the deal
Detroit: B+
Let's begin analyzing this trade with a quick blind comparison of 2012-13 stats:
You might guess that Jennings is one of these players (he's player A). Player B is Jrue Holiday, who like Jennings has just completed his rookie contract. I think we can agree that the two players are statistically similar. Despite a much better field-goal percentage, Holiday is the less efficient scorer because he takes fewer 3-pointers and gets to the free throw line far less often. His superior assist rate is offset by far more turnovers. By my WARP system, their seasons were basically identical. PER gives Holiday the slight edge, while Win Shares dramatically favors Jennings because they give less credit to Holiday for playing a larger role in his team's offense.
Yet the perceptions of the two young point guards could not be more different. Holiday was picked for the All-Star Game, and the New Orleans Pelicans gave up a pair of first-round picks to make him their point guard of the future. Jennings couldn't even scare up attention from his own team as a restricted free agent before the Detroit Pistons finally completed this sign-and-trade deal, which will reportedly pay him a very reasonable $25 million over the next three seasons. (Holiday, who signed an extension with the Philadelphia 76ers last fall, will make a little less than $30 million in that same span.)
This comparison is not to say that the two point guards are identical. Holiday is the better player. He's bigger, a better defender and a little younger to boot. But Jennings, for all his warts, is a valuable contributor whose complete strikeout in free agency was somewhat mystifying. Jennings solidifies a point guard position that (brief Jose Calderon cameo aside) has been a trouble spot in Detroit since the Chauncey Billups trade, and the cost (Knight, who might not be a point guard, and a couple of young reserves) wasn't particularly high.
As with the Josh Smith signing earlier this summer, the potential problems for the Pistons center more on fit than talent. Detroit suddenly has a lot of players who operate best with the ball in their hands, and a spot-up shooter like Knight seemed like a better complement to the frontcourt trio of Smith, Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond than an isolation point guard like Jennings.
On a more positive note, Jennings is hardly a non-shooter; per Synergy Sports his effective field-goal percentage on spot-up attempts (.492) wasn't much worse than Knight's mark (.516). And both Jennings' greatest strength (taking care of the basketball) and weakness (inaccurate shooting, especially in the paint) fit well with the Pistons' big lineup. Detroit has an excellent chance of rebounding those misses, which isn't possible with turnovers.
Joe Dumars has upgraded Detroit's lineup this offseason without getting substantially older. A core of Jennings (23), Monroe (23) and Drummond (who doesn't turn 20 until next month) has plenty of upside, and even Smith is just 27. Dumars is certainly taking a risk that these pieces will fit together, but if nothing else the 2013-14 Pistons will be a fascinating experiment. Compared to the extended run of boring mediocrity since the dissolution of the 2004 champions, I think the effort is worth it.
Milwaukee: B-
For all the nice things I just said about him, I can't totally blame the Milwaukee Bucks for wanting to move on from Jennings. They were more effective late last season, especially in the playoffs, with Monta Ellis at point guard than Jennings, and his slow development surely exaggerated his weaknesses among those who watched him on a nightly basis.
Still, if Milwaukee was going to move on, there was probably a better way to do it than this. As the saga played out, the Bucks left themselves with few options -- especially after their failed attempt to sign Jeff Teague away from the Atlanta Hawks essentially eliminated the possibility of Jennings taking a reasonable long-term deal to stay in Milwaukee.
By this point, the alternatives were basically a sign-and-trade or Jennings playing this season for the qualifying offer and leaving as an unrestricted free agent a year for now. This move at least salvages some long-term value, though its still uncertain how much because Knight's long-term potential is difficult to gauge. Based on last season, Knight isn't a starting-caliber point guard. He appears best suited to play both guard spots, preferably off the bench for a good team. SCHOENE calls him most similar at the same age to a shooting guard -- new backcourt-mate O.J. Mayo.
The Bucks get a couple of years to figure out whether Mayo can provide enough ballhandling support to Knight for them to start together at guard, and with their frontcourt in place they'll probably have additional opportunities to find a long-term solution if Knight isn't that.
Like most of Milwaukee's moves this summer, this deal is more than defensible on its own merits but hazier in the bigger picture. After making a series of acquisitions designed to fight for the eighth seed, the Bucks not only weakened themselves in the short term but also boosted one of their Eastern Conference rivals. This trade will be interesting to revisit next spring when we see how the conference shakes out.
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