Will he or won't he return? With three weeks left until the end of the regular season, the status of Chicago Bulls guard Derrick Rose is one of the biggest questions looming over the NBA. Rarely has there been such uncertainty about a huge star this late in the season. Even the obvious comparison -- in 1986, whether fellow Windy City guard Michael Jordan would come back from a broken foot -- doesn't quite fit. Jordan wasn't yet an MVP, and Chicago was 20 games below .500, not potentially the biggest threat to the Miami Heat's dominance of the Eastern Conference.
If Rose does return this season from his torn ACL -- as an unlikely source, rapper Waka Flocka Flame, suggested on Twitter yesterday (mild profanity) -- what can we expect from him and the Bulls? And how might those expectations influence his decision? Let's take a look.
Rose recovery
When Rose first went down, I took a look at the performances of the following season from 21 players who had suffered ACL tears since 2000 to try to get an idea of how much the injury might set Rose back in the short term. I've now updated that study to compare how players actually fared against their SCHOENE projections, taking the aging process out of the equation.
On average, this shows players losing about 9.0 percent of their projected effectiveness on a per-minute basis. The more interesting finding is that age still makes a difference after accounting for the typical player development curve.
Specifically, the cutoff appears to be about age 25. Of the eight players 25 and older at the time of their ACL injury since 2000, six lost more than 20 percent of their projected effectiveness. By contrast, just two of the 13 players younger than 25 dropped off as dramatically after an ACL tear.
While these samples are tiny, the premise that younger players would be better equipped to bounce back from a severe injury makes sense. That's good news for Rose, who was just 23 when he was injured. The typical player younger than 25 loses just 5.7 percent of their projected per-minute effectiveness in the first season back from an ACL. Applying that to Rose's 2012-13 projection yields the following stat line, which compares reasonably well to how he played last season while dealing with a variety of minor maladies:
Rose's 2012-13 Projection
But there's a catch, and it's a big one. Those projections are based off full seasons for most players who returned. And there is evidence that rust or an adjustment period takes place when players first return from ACL injuries. That effect has been enormous for the three players who already came back this season -- Eric Maynor, Ricky Rubio and Iman Shumpert (who suffered his injury the same day as Rose).
During their first four weeks of play, those three players made a combined 28.3 percent of their 2-point attempts. In the next four weeks, they shot 34.0 percent on 2s. Thereafter, their 2-point percentage collectively improved to 43.5 percent, which is about what they were initially projected to shoot.
Chicago no longer has the luxury of easing Rose into the lineup. Four weeks would already take the Bulls into the playoffs, and even if Rose returned right now, he would be unlikely to reach full strength before the Eastern Conference finals. The math gets worse on a daily basis. If Rose does not return before the playoffs, Chicago would have to consider the possibility that a limited Rose might actually work against them.
Weakened Supporting Cast
Through the end of January, when the Bulls stood 28-17 and led the Central Division, the healthy players appeared more than capable of keeping the team in position to capitalize on a Rose return. Since then, the challenge of keeping the team afloat and long minutes logged by starters Luol Deng (averaging a league-high 38.9 minutes per game) and Joakim Noah (a career-high 37.7, 12th-highest in the league) seem to have taken a toll. Deng and Noah are among several Bulls who have battled injuries as the team has gone 10-14 in February and March while getting outscored by an average of 3.7 points per game.
In spite of Rose's MVP status, one of the keys to Chicago's success the past two regular seasons was the Bulls' ability to survive -- thrive, even -- without their star. In 2010-11, when Rose won MVP, Chicago outscored opponents by 7.4 points per 100 possessions when he rested (per NBA.com/Stats). Last season, that figure improved to 8.2 points per 100 possessions, which explains why the Bulls were able to go 18-9 in the 27 games Rose missed due to injury.
Bulls Without Rose
Those numbers said less about Rose's value and more about Chicago's airtight defense under coach Tom Thibodeau and a strong second unit. Alas, the losses of Omer Asik, Ronnie Brewer and Kyle Korver have dented the Bulls' depth. As the chart shows, they no longer can rely on defense to outscore opponents without a star on the court. And the problem is only getting worse. Since Feb. 1, Chicago has been below average on defense, ranking 19th in defensive rating per NBA.com/Stats.
Rose's return could help. The Bulls have been weaker defensively with Nate Robinson at point guard, but Kirk Hinrich's injuries and the team's desperate need for scoring have meant Robinson has played 30-plus minutes per game in February and March. His playing time would go down quickly if Rose was in the lineup. Thibodeau also could favor defensive-minded Taj Gibson over Carlos Boozer, Chicago's leading per-minute scorer.
Still, this Bulls team is clearly not as talented as its predecessors, especially at the defensive end. Asik's departure has made Chicago heavily dependent on Noah, who is battling plantar fasciitis, to play extended minutes in the middle. The loss of Korver has left the Bulls one of the league's worst shooting teams. Even with Rose, it's unclear whether Chicago could reach the level of the Indiana Pacers (who have replaced them as the league's best defense), let alone the seemingly unstoppable Heat.
Ultimately, only Rose can make the decision on his return. He alone knows how his knee feels and whether he's comfortable enough to not merely play, but play at an elite level. Surely, some version of these calculations is playing out in his head. If the Bulls are distant long shots to win a title anyway, a Rose comeback may not be worth whatever risk exists.