You can't have two All-Stars from a team that's 10-15, right? I beg to differ. And that's probably the best place to start our discussion of this season's All-Star teams, because it colors many of the selections that will be made when the reserves are announced on Thursday. Somehow, the coaches have warped the mission of selecting the league's 12 players into something entirely different: selecting the best players from good teams. The result of the effective quota system based on records is that the coaches are taking fanciful leaps of indefensible logic in selecting the teams. None was more blatant than a year ago, when the coaches deemed that San Antonio having the league's best record made it irrelevant that LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Love were both obviously better than Tim Duncan. It's a superstar-driven league, this is true, but the concept that the supporting cast might matter has been an incredibly hard one for people to grasp. Back in the real world, however, it's perfectly possible to have two All-Stars from a bad team if the supporting cast is bad enough. Or even THREE All-Stars, from a middling team, as might be the case this year. This season, of all seasons, should hammer that point home. We've seen several star-laden teams held back by horrifying benches, while the likes of Atlanta, Philly, Indiana, Denver and San Antonio rack up victories at their expense. Contrary to what people want to pretend when they fill out All-Star ballots, this doesn't make the best players on those five teams superstars. Pau Gasol is the third-best player on the Lakers, yet would clearly be the best one on any of the five teams mentioned above. Nobody would even give that statement a second thought. Yet for some reason, we're required to ignore that reality when filling out an All-Star ballot. So keep that in mind as we go through my selections for the All-Star Game. I'm all for rewarding winning, mind you, as in "doing things that tend to lead to winning." But I'm just not voting for guys because they have good teammates. And finally, the fine print: We're picking seven reserves from each conference: two forwards, two guards, one center and two wild cards. Additionally, keep in mind that we have some leeway on positions, according to league guidelines. Center: Tyson Chandler, New York So about that 10-15 thing: Yes, the Knicks have two All-Stars. They also have a league-average version of Amare Stoudemire and no other regulars with a player efficiency rating above 13, which is why they stink even with two All-Stars. The rational move is to avoid penalizing Chandler for the woeful roster that surrounds him. He was brought in to improve New York's D and has done exactly that, with New York going from 21st to 10th in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, he's one of the few Knicks who has played well offensively, too. Chandler is shooting 70.8 percent from the floor and threatening the league record for true shooting percentage. The race at center is essentially between three players: Chandler, Greg Monroe and Roy Hibbert. Monroe is fifth in the Eastern Conference in PER but has also been pretty awful defensively, so I give Chandler the nod here. As for Chandler versus Hibbert, it's no contest. Chandler has a better PER, and had a better mark last year, too, which is important in light of the fact that we've only had 25 games or so in 2011-12 to evaluate these guys. Chandler is dramatically better defensively; I don't think any sane person would seriously dispute this. Chandler plays nearly five minutes more per game, and this isn't just a coaching decision -- he has better stamina and is better at avoiding foul trouble. But the coaches will vote for Hibbert and hose Chandler out of his first All-Star berth because the Pacers have a bunch of good players and the Knicks don't. If Hibbert makes the All-Star team, his first thank-you call should be to Toney Douglas. This is totally indefensible. Guard: Brandon Jennings, Milwaukee Jennings is tied for third among Eastern guards in estimated wins added; the two guys ahead of him are Derrick Rose and Dwyane Wade. Jennings has become a go-to guy in Brewtown thanks to an improved jump shot; he's hitting 36.9 percent on 3s while taking nearly seven a game, and his quickness coming off screens allows him to get clean looks from deep fairly easily. We can take his performance with a slight grain of salt, perhaps, since he didn't play this well in his first two seasons; on the other hand, he's only 22 and it's not unreasonable to expect him to be genuinely improved. Additionally, the competition isn't exactly daunting; virtually every other potential usurper of his spot has similar warts. Guard: Deron Williams, New Jersey Yes, another player from a losing team. Williams' numbers so far aren't quite up to his career norms, but two factors stand out in his favor: First, his historical numbers are far better than that of any other East guard candidate, suggesting he'll eventually improve on his current 19.46 mark, and second, he's picked up the pace considerably after a rocky opening to the season. Even with those problems, he's fourth among East guards in EWA, making him a rock-solid call over Joe Johnson, Kyrie Irving and Lou Williams. Forward: Chris Bosh, Miami I listed Bosh with my All-Star starters last week, so nobody should be surprised to see him here; my only additional comment would be that I would add Carmelo Anthony to the team if Bosh had been voted in as the starter. Despite his heavy offensive workload, Anthony's TS% isn't that bad (50.6) and he's a monstrously good rebounder for a wing. Forward: Paul Pierce, Boston An easy call. After struggling in his first few games, Pierce has gone completely gangbusters and now ranks third in the NBA in PER among small forwards. Given that the first two spots are effectively unattainable (LeBron and KD have those on lockdown), third is pretty impressive. So is this: Pierce's PER, scoring rate and assist rate are all his highest since 2006-07, and he continues to be a rock-solid (and vastly underrated) defender. Wild card: Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia The Sixers are the league's best defensive team by a wide margin, and Iguodala is their best defensive player by a wide margin. It's not like this is new -- he's been doing this for years, but somehow the league's PR directors
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coaches, keep voting Kobe Bryant to the All-Defense and ignoring how Iggy shuts down opposing wingmen. Try this stat on: Opposing small forwards have a PER of 8.2 against Iguodala, according to 82games.com. He turns the average opponent into Terrence Williams or Quincy Pondexter. A lot of people are pushing Luol Deng for this spot because of his defense, but Iguodala's defensive numbers are dramatically better and he's had a better PER than Deng in each of the past five seasons. If you're going to reward a defensive ace, Iggy is the guy. Combine it with his usual solid offensive numbers, and Iguodala gets the nod for the first wild-card spot. And for the first time, the Sixers' record will work in his favor rather than against it. Wild card: Rajon Rondo, Boston Given that (a) everyone knows darn well that Rondo is one of the best guards in the league, (b) his play hasn't dipped an inch this season, and (c) he missed only eight games, it seems rather odd to me that everybody is completely ignoring him in the All-Star discussion. Rondo's three main rivals for the final spot are Joe Johnson, Greg Monroe and Ryan Anderson. I might be more inclined to vote for Monroe if he'd done this for 50 games and not 25; ditto for Anderson. But the specter of regression to the mean on their offensive numbers remains large for both, given that neither has played this well before, and each is a sieve on defense. Alas, Anderson may nab the coveted Jason Kidd Memorial "We needed a sub at the last minute and you were the only guy in town" spot if there's an injury. As for Johnson, he's made five straight All-Star teams by seemingly perfecting the technique of playing exactly well enough to get the 12th spot on the Eastern roster. He may pull it off again, given the coaches look at the standings first and the players second. But on this ballot he comes up a bit short; he's my first choice for injury reserves, with Monroe and Anderson after him. For the West, it basically comes down to two obvious picks and a lot of head-scratching. Let's get the easy stuff out of the way before punishing ourselves: Forward: Kevin Love, Minnesota Love was my choice as a starter, so again, no surprise here. Blake Griffin would be an equally obvious choice as a reserve were he not voted to the starting lineup, so no big deal there. Center: LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Aldridge has played so well that it's virtually impossible he'll be shafted this time. Among Western reserve candidates not currently on league-mandate suspensions for stomping an opponent, Aldridge is first in PER, and first in EWA by a wide margin. You'll notice one trick here, however: I'm taking Aldridge as my center, a position he plays fairly regularly in Portland. The All-Star rules state clearly that the voters can move a player to a reasonable position if it benefits the roster; while I'm not eliminating the other West centers, I at least want to keep my options open while I weigh them against the litany of quality West power forwards. Guard: Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Building the rest of the roster is basically process of elimination. There are 10 West reserve candidates with between 3.7 and 4.5 EWA and then a giant gulf beneath them; in a season this short that's practically a tie. That list doesn't include Dirk Nowitzki or Manu Ginobili. We only have five spots. So yes, this is going to be hard, and some feelings are going to get hurt. Let's start by taking our mandated two guards. Westbrook has the best recent historical numbers of the group, leads them all in EWA and has appeared to pay a bit more attention on defense this season, and his team in his first place. As much as we'd prefer he didn't take pull-up jumpers with 14 on the clock, his overwhelming athleticism still makes him an extremely effective player, and I'd say he has the strongest argument of any remaining player for inclusion. Guard: Steve Nash, Phoenix Splitting hairs between Steve Nash, James Harden and Parker for the final guard spot is not for the faint of heart. They are effectively even in PER and EWA, if you allow for the fact that a single good or bad game by any could vault them from first to last. The easiest to eliminate is Harden, for multiple reasons: He's playing the fewest minutes and simply ramping up the playing time may not be an answer, given that he turns into a cadaver when he shares the court with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Second, he has little defensive impact; while Nash and Parker don't either, it doesn't separate him from them like it might. Finally he's never produced at nearly this level before; while Harden was very good in the second half of last season, we're still talking about a whopping five-point PER jump from a year ago. We know he's really good; I'm just not sure he's quite this good, at least yet. It pains me to shun Parker, but Nash has been considerably better per-minute and the main difference in EWA is that Nash sat out a couple of games with a minor injury; given that Parker isn't exactly an ironman either, that shouldn't be the differentiator. It's also been a near dead heat between these two on PER over the past two seasons. If you want Parker, I can't argue too strongly, but I'll go with Nash here. Forward: Pau Gasol, L.A. Lakers Yes, a 14-11 team can have three All-Stars. As it turns out, if its fourth- and fifth-ranked players in minutes have PERs of 9.44 and 6.35, respectively, it's actually pretty easy to pull off. Nobody is putting Gasol on their All-Star lists because of the "you can't have 3" silliness, but he's unquestionably better than any other remaining candidate. This isn't just some flavor-of-the-month, 20-game hot streak: He's had a PER above 20 for 10 straight years, he plays a ton of minutes, he never gets hurt, and he can move to center if needed. At the end of the season, everybody is going to feel faintly ridiculous at the thought that he didn't make the team. Well, he makes my team. In terms of PER and EWA, he's right there with the other candidates, and he's the only one of them who would actually benefit from regressing to his historic mean. Wild card: Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Heck yes, I said Dirk Nowitzki. (And no, Marc Stein didn't buy me off to put Nash and Nowitzki on the team.) We normally select our All-Star team after 50 games, not 25; I'll bet you a thousand dollars that at the 50-game mark Dirk's résumé is better than those of Marc Gasol, Danilo Gallinari, James Harden or any other of the aspirants to this spot. This is also why it's worthwhile to wait till the last minute to fill out a ballot. I would consider giving Dirk's spot away more seriously if he were still limping up and down the court, but he has 54 points in his past 68 minutes and seems noticeably more active. More amazingly, even a gimpy, one-legged Nowitzki managed to post a PER in the high teens, which isn't too far off the pace of the players listed above. Wild card: Paul Millsap, Utah And now we get to the part for which there is simply no good answer. If you want Marc Gasol here, there's a fair argument: He's played a ton of minutes at career-best efficiency, he leads all Gasols in EWA, and the Grizzlies more or less fall to pieces when he checks out of the game. If you want Gallinari, I hear you: Small forwards with such production are incredibly rare, and the kid plays both ends of the court, too. And Parker? His season has undeniably been All-Star caliber. But for me, there's just no way to deny Millsap. Yes, this is far better than he's ever played and he may regress to the mean. But he could have a league-average PER for the next 20 games and still have numbers that rival those of the other applicants; his first third of the season was that good. Besides, all of them except Parker must answer the same question as to whether this is a 20-game hot streak or a genuine display of improved abilities. In the meantime, he surprisingly has Utah in the playoff race with a sizzling 24.23 PER and 51.8 percent shooting. That shooting percentage isn't a fluke: He's shot 53 percent or better the past three seasons, too. Millsap has been so good that, even playing only 31.2 minutes a game, his 4.5 EWA outpaces every All-Star candidate except Aldridge and Love. So it's Millsap, with my injury replacement choices being Parker, Gasol The Younger and Gallinari (in that order).EASTERN CONFERENCE
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