We're doing this already? Really??? Apparently so. The NBA is set to announce the starters for the All-Star Game tonight, after all of 22 games have been played (on average) and much of the league is rather clearly still playing its way into shape. It's an unfortunate consequence of the lockout that we have half as many games as usual from which to select our All-Star teams. A vexing process even with two-thirds of a full season to evaluate the candidates, choosing this year's teams is even more difficult due to the small samples and several sluggish starts. Nonetheless, I'll play along: Today I'll pick my 10 All-Star starters, five from each conference. But first, a few ground rules. Or rather, one really big ground rule: Track record matters. We have only 20-something games this season, and as a result evaluating candidates solely on what they've done this season is insanity. If you believe the All-Star Game is a showcase for the league's best players, then it's incumbent on us to select the best players ... not necessarily the ones that have had the best first 20 games of the season. To point out one particularly obvious example, let's take Paul Millsap and Dirk Nowitzki. Millsap is having a fantastic start to his season; Nowitzki is rather clearly not. If you were asking, "which players have played the best in the first third of this season," Millsap might make the top 10 and Nowitzki wouldn't crack the top 50. On the other hand, if you were to ask the more global question of "who's better, Dirk or Millsap?" or even "who would you rather have for the rest of this season?" you'll get very different answers. The fact Dirk isn't playing like an All-Star doesn't mean he doesn't belong on an All-Star team, at least when it's based on such a small subset of games. Fortunately, by and large the league's superstars have made it easy for us. Even after 20 games, the wheat has largely separated from the chaff enough to make most of these positions relatively easy decisions. He has a better PER than in his MVP season and the Bulls have the best record in the East at the moment (albeit in a virtual five-way dead heat), so I don't think there's much to argue here. One expected Deron Williams to give him a stronger push for this honor, but Williams got off to a slow start in New Jersey before picking things up of late. He's played only 13 games, but based on his track record and performance in his few appearances, this one is another no-brainer. Wade is the only Eastern Conference shooting guard with a PER above 20, and obviously his resume entering the season was strong too: He was third in the NBA in PER a year ago. Hands down the best player in the league for the first 47 minutes of every game, James is threatening to annihilate the PER record, sporting a dazzling 33.39 after outscoring the Bucks in the first quarter last night. Not normally known as the paragon of high-efficiency shooting, James' 62.5 true shooting percentage is off the charts; it would be a career high for Kevin Martin. The only quibble is with his late-game execution, but James is clearly the league's MVP for the first third of the season. This is unquestionably the most difficult spot on the East ballot. Right now the leader in PER among East power forwards is Ryan Anderson of Orlando, but given that a) he has no defensive value, and b) he's never performed at such an exalted level for a full season, I don't think I can give him the nod over Bosh. Amare Stoudemire would be another pick, but he's been so bad in the first third of the season that it offsets his slightly superior track record. Greg Monroe and Andrea Bargnani are on the ballot as centers, so no to them as well. That leaves the only plausible alternatives as Josh Smith and Carmelo Anthony. Smith is having a nice season but hasn't quite matched Bosh statistically, either this season or historically. Anthony is truly a 3, of course, and lacks a strong case to cram him into this spot ahead of Bosh; you can argue he's an equivalent player, but it's difficult to prove he's any better. So it's Bosh, who single-handedly carried the Heat to a win in Atlanta without James and Wade and has improved his offensive numbers from a year ago across the board, who gets the nod here. Howard in cruise control is still orders of magnitude better than every other center in the Eastern Conference. I thought he should have won the MVP a year ago, and while his performance this season hasn't been quite as impressive, he still leads all centers in PER and leads the league in rebound rate. He's played only 14 games, but when he's played he's been brilliant, ranking second in the NBA in PER and generally providing calm and leadership to a Clippers attack that looks ragged in his absence. Not that this is anything new; if the numbers hold up it will be the fifth straight year that Paul had the best PER of any point guard. Yes, even last season he did -- by .14 over Rose. Paul isn't as spectacular as some other point guards but stands out for his devastating efficiency: He's averaging nearly five assists for every turnover, shooting 52.2 percent from the floor and 44.4 percent on 3s; he also leads the league in steals. Apologies go out to Steve Nash and Russell Westbrook, who have played well enough to start in a more ordinary universe. Westbrook shook off a slow start and is now basically matching what he did a year ago, while Nash, despite the misery that surrounds him in Phoenix, is posting a career high in PER and somehow leads the league in assists while playing with a scoring-starved supporting cast. Even if you take issue with some of his shot selection this season, there's really no alternative. Bryant leads the league in scoring and leads all shooting guards in PER; the only other West shooting guard with a PER over 20 is James Harden, who comes off the bench. Meanwhile, Kobe also led all West shooting guards in PER last year, and the year before that, and ... well, you get the idea. His track record entering the season was really strong, and his play has been even stronger. A similar story to the shooting guard situation, or to the small forward situation in the East: Durant is just head and shoulders above every other player at his position, even if he's "only" third in scoring rather than leading the league. His Thunder have the league's best record, he's averaging 26.6 points per game, and he's doing it with a stellar 60.5 TS%. The only other West small forward with a PER above 20 is Denver's Danilo Gallinari. Six players merit strong consideration here: Love, Nowitzki, Millsap, LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol and Blake Griffin. (I'd put Zach Randolph in here, too, if he weren't injured.) Of the six, Love had the best PER last season and has the best PER again this season. He's noticeably improved at the defensive end in particular, which had been his biggest shortcoming. And obviously, the Wolves' ascension to respectability makes a vote for Love easier to defend. More importantly, I can't come up with anyone who outranks him. Griffin has better highlights but Love has been the more effective player, plus I'd argue Griffin's defensive shortcomings are at least as severe as Love's. Nowitzki would get the nod based on last year, but add in the glaring disparity in their bodies of work this season and Love has eclipsed him. Aldridge was nearly as good as Love in both seasons, but never better. Millsap has been fantastic this season but his track record can't touch Love's and one suspects he'll regress to the mean some over the final 46 games. Which leaves us with Gasol. I'd argue Gasol was better than Love a year ago overall but hasn't been anywhere close to him this season, and over the past 100 games or so that gives Love a narrow advantage. The real fun, instead, comes in a week when we try to split hairs among the other five guys. Bynum is playing more minutes, has stayed healthy and otherwise is doing largely what he's always done -- average better than 20 points per 40 minutes, while shooting in the mid-50s and snaring better than a board every three minutes. Nonetheless, this is not an easy call by any means. Al Jefferson and Marc Gasol have very strong cases based on their play this season, which has effectively matched that of Bynum. The differences are subtle. Compared to Jefferson, Bynum has roughly the same stats, both this season and historically, but much more defensive value. For that reason alone he gets the nod. Compared to Gasol the Younger? Marc plays just as much D as Bynum; the difference instead is in production. This is Bynum's fifth straight year with a PER above 20, a standard Gasol has never reached and is just shy of this season.EASTERN CONFERENCE
Point guard: Derrick Rose, Chicago
Shooting guard: Dwyane Wade, Miami
Small forward: LeBron James, Miami
Power forward: Chris Bosh, Miami
Center: Dwight Howard, Orlando (for the moment)
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Point guard: Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers
Shooting guard: Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers
Small forward: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City
Power forward: Kevin Love, Minnesota
Center: Andrew Bynum, L.A. Lakers