Future Power Rankings: Teams 11-15

Consider this a convenient way to see the direction in which your favorite team is headed.

Each of the NBA's 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 1,200, based on how well we expect each team to perform in the three seasons after this season.

To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories (see table at right).

As you can see, we determined that the most important category is a team's current roster and the future potential of those players -- that category accounts for 40 percent of each team's overall Future Power Rating.

At the same time, we looked at many other factors, such as management, ownership, coaching, a team's spending habits, its cap situation, the reputation of the city and the franchise and what kind of draft picks we expected the team to have in the future.

One change for this edition: Now that so many big names have landed in more permanent places, we have increased the value of the Players category. This also rewards teams like Oklahoma City, Memphis and Philadelphia that have successfully built their rosters already with young talent. Of course, we still recognize that teams like Dallas, Houston and New Jersey (future: Brooklyn) have the money and the motivation to spend, and can make a lot of noise in the coming years -- and we still reward teams for strong management, salary cap space and so on.

Here are our latest rankings, from 1 to 30:

Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30

11. (tie) Boston Celtics | Future Power Rating: 667

Faith in Celtics president Danny Ainge is what essentially justifies the top-12 ranking of the aging Celtics.

The Celtics' roster score has been creeping downhill since we started this project. But in the past year, it finally plummeted. They've dipped all the way to No. 21.

Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen still have powder left in the chamber, but the long-term prognosis is obviously not so good. The loss of Jeff Green to a heart ailment hurt the Celtics' score as well. And all the talk about the Celtics dangling Rajon Rondo on the trade market speaks to the fact that while Rondo is a major talent, he's not an ideal player to build a new team around.

But Ainge knows this and is unafraid to trade anyone on the team if it makes the Celtics better in the long run. His fearlessness keeps the Celtics with a top-six ranking in management.

We also have faith in the Celtics' financial situation going forward. Other teams may have more money, but given the Celtics' favorable market and Ainge's penchant for luring guys to Boston, we are banking on the Celtics to do well in the summer.

(Previous rank: 8)

11. (tie) Los Angeles Lakers | Future Power Rating: 667

The Lakers seem like they're dying in slow motion right now, but they still have problems most other teams would kill for. A nucleus of Kobe Bryant, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol figures to decline substantially during the next three years, given that only Bynum is in his 20s, but that's still a far more imposing trio than most other teams can muster. We just wish the cupboard wasn't so bare behind them. Bynum is the only young player on the roster whom another team would want.

Additionally, we rated the Lakers' management strongly. Mitch Kupchak has quietly done a very solid job building and maintaining this squad, and Mike Brown is among the league's better coaches. Although we're all a little concerned about Jim Buss' role, there's a lot of organizational knowledge in place.

But the biggest reason to be optimistic about the Lakers is they're the Lakers. This works on two levels. First, L.A. always will outspend any team if it really needs to; although the Lakers have cut a few corners in recent seasons in order to save a few bucks, they can always go deep into the luxury tax to clinch a gobsmacker deal (like the Pau Gasol trade).

Second, they're the top free-agent target for everybody. If the Lakers have cap space, a superstar will definitely take it. And on that note, check out this little nugget: L.A. has $0 committed in 2014-15, when the contracts of Gasol and Bryant expire. They could build a whole new team around whichever stars want to come ... presuming Dwight Howard, Kevin Love or some other megastar hasn't already finagled a trade there.

(Previous rank: 4)

13. Portland Trail Blazers | Future Power Rating: 657

It's amazing how bright the Blazers' future looks given all that's gone wrong with them. Two years ago Brandon Roy and Greg Oden looked like the foundation of a perennial contender; now it appears each has played his last game as a Blazer.

All that has left the Blazers firmly in the middle, as they rank between 12th and 18th in every category; few other franchises could suffer a one-two sucker punch like this and remain standing.

Nonetheless, the future looks hazy. Not bad, necessarily, but hazy. LaMarcus Aldridge and Wes Matthews are the only core players certain to be on the team next season; all the rest are likely to be free agents. The team has kept the general manager position open as well, with owner Paul Allen apparently relying on his Seattle friends to whisper things in his ear.

All this could be a tremendous opportunity to rebuild the roster around Aldridge and make another charge for the top of the West; the Blazers could also bring everyone back, as the current team isn't chopped liver, either.

The good news is that Allen remains willing to spend for a winner, that the Blazers potentially have cap space to chase a star and that Aldridge is a fantastic centerpiece. Instead, the familiar story is their struggle to get from here to the league's upper crust.

(Previous rank: 10)

14. New York Knicks | Future Power Rating: 615

Sorry, Knicks fans. Landing two marquee players and a big free-agent signing was supposed to launch the Knicks into the stratosphere. Instead, the moves have actually sunk them below .500 this season and dropped them eight spots in our rankings.

In March, we were a lot more bullish about the Knicks' future thanks to the addition of Amare Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony and some cap flexibility in the future. Eleven months later? Stoudemire looks worn down, Anthony is proving he's no LeBron and all that cap space was spent on Tyson Chandler (not, say, Dwight Howard or Chris Paul).

The Knicks remain as high as they are in the rankings based primarily on market, where New York ranks third behind Los Angeles and Miami right now. In every other category, the picture isn't pretty.

The Knicks are losing ground in the management department after losing the revered Donnie Walsh this past summer. They no longer have the cap flexibility they used to have. And they've killed virtually any chance of landing a top draft pick based on a number of trades they made to get the cap space that eventually went to Chandler.

Meanwhile, they don't have much roster flexibility. Stoudemire is almost impossible to trade because of an uninsured contract. Melo has value, but they'd get pennies on the dollar for him in a trade. Chandler seems like a poor fit in the current system. Baron Davis might help temporarily, but he's not the point guard of the future. Maybe the Knicks will get lucky in the summer and a superstar will force a trade there; that's the power of their market. But short of that, the great Knicks rebuilding plan looks like it may come up far short of expectations.

(Previous rank: 6)

15. Memphis Grizzlies
| Future Power Rating: 612

We like this nucleus a lot, rating the Grizzlies fifth in players. With Marc Gasol, Tony Allen, Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph and Mike Conley, along with Darrell Arthur and O.J. Mayo in relief, this is a fantastic core. Randolph and Arthur are injured at the moment, but they'll be back at full strength next season.

It's the other stuff that has us worried. Let's start with the money; Memphis is in arguably the worst cap position of any team, given its aversion to luxury tax. The Griz will be dancing with the tax line each of the next three years just to pay their core, likely making it difficult to keep Mayo beyond this season. As for adding additional players, the Griz are probably mostly looking at minimum-salary players who won't bust the budget -- a difficult proposition in a market that's already among the league's least alluring.

As for management, it depends on who is calling the shots. GM Chris Wallace has proved competent when he's been able to make the decisions, and head coach Lionel Hollins has done solid work. But owner Michael Heisley has too often intervened in basketball decisions with disastrous consequences -- most notably when he had the team take Hasheem Thabeet in the 2009 draft.

Thus, it's incumbent on that core group to stay healthy and productive for the next three seasons, because the Grizzlies have a hard time importing any help, and they'll be drafting too late to find much support that way. It's a strong group, but they're sailing into an equally strong headwind.

(Previous rank: 22)

Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30

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