The new economics of the NBA have emphasized several opportunities for value in talent acquisition. I wrote about how the max contract artificially subsidizes the game's elite talents, allowing teams to acquire multiple superstars on discount. The elite veteran superstar represents the surest bet in basketball at the highest price point: Everyone knows just how good they are, and thus they earn high wages.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, draft picks are inherently riskier but significantly less expensive; you're not sure whether they'll be able to adapt to the highest levels of competition, but the rookie scale ensures a highly favorable cost to the team.
Between the max-deal veterans and the fresh-out-of-the-box rookies are the guys I call the "First Fours" -- players who have some NBA experience (being in the first four years of experience) while still remaining on affordable rookie-scale deals. For teams looking for cheap sources of talent, maximizing the talents of First Four players on their rosters can be a gold mine.
Here are eight First Four players I expect to take a big step forward this year and provide high value at low cost for their teams:
Kemba Walker | Charlotte Bobcats
Draft class: 2011
2013-14 salary: $2.6 million
Walker made big strides as a sophomore last year. Unfortunately, most of the country didn't realize it because the Bobcats were so terrible. He averaged 17.7 points per game and 5.7 assists per game, and although those numbers are tempered by poor shooting efficiency (47 percent), Walker still posted the second-lowest turnover rate among all starting point guards. Much of his shooting struggles can be traced back to Charlotte's lack of scoring talent, forcing Walker to take on a larger burden of the offense than he probably should have. With the addition of a legitimate offensive focal point in free-agent acquisition Al Jefferson and draft pick Cody Zeller, Walker should be able to settle back into more of a facilitator role and focus on taking better shots and bringing leadership and other intangibles to the team.
Chandler Parsons | Houston Rockets
Draft class: 2011
2013-14 salary: $926,500
Parsons took a huge leap from his rookie to sophomore season, but I expect him to take another jump this year. With the offseason acquisition of Dwight Howard, Parsons shifts from a secondary scoring option to a tertiary one. What this means is opposing defenses have to focus most of their efforts on stopping Howard and James Harden, which will allow Parsons to feast on poorer individual defenders and exploit weakside defenses. Prior to the playoffs last season, I wrote that Parsons deferred too much offensively, and predicted that his usage would rise in the postseason as he upped his aggression. He needs to continue to play with the intensity and vigor with which he did in the playoffs, as his contributions will often spell the difference between a win and a loss for the Rockets.
Tobias Harris | Orlando Magic
Draft class: 2011
2013-14 salary: $1.5 million
A favorite of many hardcore hoops heads, Harris was unshackled by the midseason trade that sent him from Milwaukee to Orlando, where he was able to showcase his talents as a skilled combo forward. Now in his first full season with the Magic (where he'll probably get the nod as starter), Harris can build upon his production from the final 27 games of last season. He's a decent enough rebounder (20.2 DRB percentage) that Orlando can get away with playing him at the 4, where he takes advantage of slower defenders and puts the ball on the floor to get to the rim, where he finished at a high rate (shot 61 percent at the rim with the Magic). He still needs to work on extending his range (he's a decent midrange shooter, but lacks consistency out to the 3-point line) and improving his back-to-the-basket game (to exploit smaller defenders). He'll have every opportunity to work on those areas this season for an Orlando team where wins are not in demand.
Jonas Valanciunas | Toronto Raptors
Draft class: 2011
2013-14 salary: $3.5 million
Valanciunas showed a lot more ease out on the court toward the end of 2012-13, averaging 12.5 points per game while shooting 60 percent from the field and 84 percent from the line. This comfort culminated with him winning the Las Vegas Summer League MVP, as he dominated the competition. Entering his second season in the league (he sat out the first season he was drafted), Valanciunas hopes to continue the momentum he has built. He's already an excellent pick-and-roll target as an agile big with good hands who can finish; the next evolution is the ability to "shallow roll" and pull up for the short jumper to avoid defenders sliding in for would-be charges.
Dion Waiters | Cleveland Cavaliers
Draft class: 2012
2013-14 salary: $3.9 million
Waiters has been here before; after a lackluster freshman season at Syracuse in which he was out of shape, many were questioning whether he was worth his scholarship. He rededicated himself the following offseason, lost the baby fat and turned in a strong sophomore campaign that culminated in becoming a top-five pick in the draft. Fast-forward and there's a bit of history repeating itself; after an up-and-down rookie season in which his lofty draft status was questioned, he worked hard in the offseason, losing the extra pounds he'd put on last year and is looking more like the explosive combo guard the Cavs envisioned when they drafted him. Trimming down should allow him to get to the rim more easily, and finish better there (where he only shot 51 percent last year). Beyond that, Waiters needs to work on extending his range out to the 3-point line, particularly getting more adept at the corner 3, where he shot just 9-for-39 (23 percent)
John Jenkins | Atlanta Hawks
Draft class: 2012
2013-14 salary: $1.3 million
Jenkins has the potential to be one of the elite specialists in the league, like teammate Kyle Korver. He's a deadly shooter (shot 39 percent from 3-point range last season) with an extremely quick release, and is not afraid of the moment (a fancy way of saying he's got intestinal fortitude). The next step for Jenkins is to expand his game beyond catch-and-shoot/spacing value. When scouting him at Vanderbilt, I thought an underrated aspect of his game was his ability to pass the ball; the problem is it always was limited by his inability to put the ball on the floor for more than an escape dribble against a hard closeout. If Jenkins can continue to develop his handles, I envision him resembling J.J. Redick more than Korver, as an elite shooter who can run some pick-and-roll plays.
Andre Drummond | Detroit Pistons
Draft class: 2012
2013-14 salary: $2.5 million
One of the great mysteries of the 2012-13 season was how (and why) Detroit managed to play Drummond barely 20 minutes a night. One longtime scout joked to me that it was like a college coach "hiding" a freshman prospect in the hopes that he'll tank his draft value and ensure his return for another year. He was a devastatingly efficient player on the floor, shooting 64 percent at the rim (where 318 of his 341 FGAs came) and rebounding at an elite level on both ends of the court (15.4 ORB%; 27.2 DRB%). He is a "go-get-it"-type athlete, meaning you can lob the ball anywhere in the general vicinity of the rim and he has the ability to go get it and finish. I've been skeptical as to the fit of a frontcourt featuring Josh Smith, Greg Monroe and Drummond, but Drummond has shown that he deserves a larger role on this team. Like Jenkins, I think that Drummond was an underrated passer in college, and his prep and AAU coaches both told me he was a guy who enjoyed making the pass, so it will be interesting to see whether Detroit can nurture this ability and desire.
Miles Plumlee | Phoenix Suns
Draft class: 2012
2013-14 salary: $1.1 million
A relative unknown compared to some of the others on this list, Plumlee was a throw-in in the Luis Scola trade with Indiana, and now has an opportunity to make a name for himself in a rebuilding situation in Phoenix. Standing a shade under 6-foot-11, Plumlee has the size to play either the 4 or 5 and is an excellent athlete with a 40-inch-plus max vertical leap that translates to the court, where he finishes above the rim. He's a solid rebounder who plays with high energy and can be a defensive pest (like a bigger Lou Amundson). I saw Plumlee at the Suns' training camp scrimmage, and he clearly outplayed all of the other centers, including Phoenix's prime trade piece, Marcin Gortat, so there's a good chance he could be starting for them at some point this season. He's no star by any stretch of the imagination, but could carve a niche in this league as a solid, productive big who knows his role.