As the end of the regular season nears, teams in the hunt begin their preparation for the "second season" -- the playoffs. When I was in Phoenix, we already would have started anticipating possible playoff matchups and preparing game plans for each opponent, including detailed personnel reports and end-of-game play videos.
This isn't an uncommon practice; all playoff teams are doing the same thing right now. But despite the head start they all get, there is always going to be something you concede to your opponent as you try to devise a game plan against their main options. These are the difference-makers, the players who can push a team over the top.
In last year's conference finals, we saw two examples of difference-makers in James Harden helping the Oklahoma City Thunder overcome a 2-0 deficit to the San Antonio Spurs and in Chris Bosh returning from injury to help the Miami Heat defeat the Boston Celtics after trailing 3-2. Who are some of the players who can be the difference this spring?
Dwight Howard | Los Angeles Lakers
A year ago, no one could have imagined Howard being on a list of options opponents would concede, but a lot has changed. Between recovering from a back injury and trying to find his niche in the Lakers' offense, Howard has had his share of struggles, but he also has played his best basketball since the All-Star break, even if the numbers show only a nominal difference.
From a scouting perspective, he is moving a lot more nimbly, running the floor early and regaining his trademark explosion. He isn't fully recovered, but the Lakers have to hope that, if they can hold the fort the next three weeks, he'll be able to make a huge impact in the playoffs, particularly on the defensive end. Ultimately, they'll have to make more of an effort to keep him engaged on the offensive end to get the most out of him; since the All-Star break, his fourth-quarter usage percentage in wins has been 21.1 percent (close to his season average); in losses, it's a paltry 11.5 percent (close to Reggie Evans' season average).
Andrew Bogut | Golden State Warriors
Bogut continues to shake off the rust from the myriad injury issues plaguing him the past year and a half, but, like Howard, he shows signs of improvement with every game. The offensive execution, particularly in the post, isn't quite there yet, but Bogut's presence on the offensive boards, combined with his ability to set solid screens for Golden State's shooters, has been a boon for the Warriors' offense.
For example, one of the key plays made versus the Lakers on Monday night was a high pick-and-roll with Stephen Curry. Picture this:
Golden State had shooters in the deep corners and David Lee on the baseline ("short corner" area), giving Curry and Bogut maximum space to operate. Bogut actually catches the pass at the free throw line, and his ability to put the ball on the floor allows him to get all the way to the rim for the easy lay-in, as the Lakers' help defense was unwilling to assist on the roll.
Defensively, he raises the collective IQ of the team and acts as a tremendous rim protector and rebounder, even though his reaction times are still not quite there. As he continues to get his legs under him and regain his touch around the rim, he'll improve the Warriors' execution in the half court on both ends of the floor.
Any number of Nuggets probably could have made this list; their superstar-less system makes it incredibly difficult to come up with a game plan against them because any number of players can hurt you on any given night. I chose Miller, however, because he often is overlooked because of the emergence of Ty Lawson.
For one, he's a starting-caliber point guard coming off the bench and playing against backups, a huge advantage. Miller is also consistently able to control tempo while he's in the game, and he is annually one of the league leaders in lobs-thrown-for-dunks, an essential skill for the athletic Nuggets. His size advantage allows him to take smaller guards on the block and score or force a defensive adjustment.
When Phoenix played Portland in the 2010 playoffs, we adjusted after a Game 1 loss in which Miller had 31 points and eight assists (many of which came out of post-ups) by switching the defensive assignment onto Grant Hill, hiding Steve Nash on lesser offensive threats. That won't be an option for Denver opponents in the playoffs, as the team's cadre of offensively capable big wings (Andre Iguodala, Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler Corey Brewer) can and will make opponents pay.
The loss of All-Star center Marc Gasol to an abdominal tear could prove costly for the Grizzlies, but they actually would be in worse shape had they not consummated the Rudy Gay trade two months ago, which allowed them to net several assets to improve their depth, including third-year player Davis.
Despite his slight frame, Davis is a tenacious rebounder on both ends of the court (hovering at about 10 percent offensive rebound rate and 23 percent defensive rebound rate for nearly his entire career). He's a tremendously efficient post player (71.4 percent field goal percentage at the rim), although he definitely favors shooting over his right shoulder (meaning he goes to the middle if he posts on the right block, comes back baseline if he's on the left block). Davis also has a decent midrange game, shooting a respectable 44.3 percent from 10-16 feet. He can't replace Gasol's playmaking or defensive impact, but Davis provides a more-than-serviceable stopgap solution until Gasol is healed up in time for the playoffs.
Chandler Parsons | Houston Rockets
By the time the playoffs roll around, Parsons probably will have worked his way off this list and onto the "No. 2 option" on most opponent scouting reports. When I scouted Parsons at Florida, I was always impressed with his playmaking ability at his size, but worried about his perimeter shooting and his penchant for sometimes lacking aggression offensively despite his gifts.
However, in Houston, he has pretty much answered those questions, shooting better than 38 percent from 3-point range and attempting more than 12 field goals per game. He provides the perfect complement for Houston's offense, which centers heavily around the dribble penetrations of Harden and Jeremy Lin, as Parsons not only can space the floor effectively but can also put the ball on the floor and make plays off the dribble. His USG% probably will climb and crack 20 percent (he's at as much as 18.1 now) by the time the playoffs come, as opposing defenses will be so keyed into stopping Harden and Lin that they will have to concede to one-on-one coverage on Parsons on the wing. Going against third-option perimeter defenders will make it necessary for him to take a larger share of the offensive burden.
Last, but not least, I reserve a spot on this list for Rose, whose return, although questionable at this point, could effectively swing the balance of power in the East.
Since the All-Star break, the Bulls have had the worst offensive efficiency among any teams in the playoff picture in either conference, scoring an anemic 99.1 points per 100 possessions. A Rose return would provide an offensive spark for a team desperately in need of it and would force opponents to rework their game plans to account for his presence. Looking at the standings, the Bulls are in a virtual deadlock with Atlanta for the fifth or sixth seed and are just two games up on Boston for the seventh seed. Dropping out of the fifth actually would work in the Bulls' favor, keeping them out of Miami's bracket, which then would give Rose more time to shake the rust off before Chicago would conceivably meet the defending champ in the playoffs.