Although only 22 years old, DeMarcus Cousins is already at a major crossroads in his young career.
And now that the decision has been made that the Sacramento Kings are staying put, they have another huge decision to make: whether to keep Cousins.
On July 1, the Kings can begin negotiations on Cousins' rookie scale extension, which can potentially keep him with the franchise through 2019. If the team and Cousins don't reach an agreement by Oct. 31, Cousins will enter the summer of 2014 as a restricted free agent.
So the team and Cousins have some big decisions ahead.
Based on what we've seen from him, and the likely difficulty of the upcoming negotiations, the franchise's decision should be clear: It's time to trade Cousins.
Before an organization trades away a player, particularly a potential franchise player, it must answer several questions. In the case of Cousins, the team should look at his talent, his potential, his behavior and the potential trade market.
What kind of player is Cousins?
At 6-foot-11, 270 pounds, Cousins combines great size and strength with quick feet and handles. He is a true center, with versatility.
In the post, he doesn't use guile. For the most part he's trying get to the middle of the paint right through his defender's chest. His lack of refined footwork in the post leads him to take more-contested-than-necessary shots around the rim.
He excels at getting deep seals at the front of the rim when coming down in transition, but oddly doesn't fight nearly as hard for post position during half-court plays. Often he just wants to play a face-up game. One veteran player told me, "Cousins wants to play like a guard and put the ball on the floor and cross you over. You have to stay in front of him because, if he gets the step, it's tough to contest with his size."
He can be surprisingly effective on dribble drives, but many of his isolation opportunities end with a contested 17-foot jumper. In pick-and-roll situations, he prefers to pick-and-pop rather than roll hard to the basket.
Cousins gets easily frustrated if things don't go his way offensively. Add it up and it's quite a mixed bag: A lot of ability that is hampered by questionable decisions.
On defense, Cousins has a reputation for being lazy, particularly in the pick-and-roll. Opposing teams will often put him in those situations, as he won't make the necessary rotations. I asked one NBA team scout if he would say that Cousins was more reactive than proactive on the defensive end, and he replied, "Calling him reactive would be using too nice of a word."
A veteran player told me Cousins is not really engaged on the defensive end and is reluctant to leave the paint, and opposing players look to exploit these deficiencies.
How effective is he?
Despite his sometimes deficient and immature game, Cousins can be a statistical monster. He's that talented.
But he can be maddeningly inefficient. He shot only 46.5 percent from the field (though it's a career high), and his true shooting percentage of .524 was 187th in the league among players who played 40 games or more. Much of this can be attributed to shot selection: He has too many long 2-pointers in his offensive diet (308 FGAs from 10 feet out versus 374 FGAs at the rim), and he isn't particularly accurate when away from the basket (33.4 percent on those shots).
He isn't much of a high flyer, but he's still an excellent rebounder on both ends of the floor (with an offensive rebound rate of 10.9 and defensive rebound rate of 27.0), as he uses his bulk to carve out space under the boards, particularly on the offensive end.
Cousins has a knack for passing, and it's one of his most interesting traits. From the post and elbows, he routinely finds cutters and weakside shooters. While his turnover percentage is a little high at 15.5, his assist percentage of 15.3 is one of the highest among big men in the league.
Turnovers are an inherent risk in playmaking, and it's the type of "flaw" a team can live with as a negative result arising from a positive behavior (sharing the ball). Cousins also has his fair share of careless (or stupid) turnovers, but as his judgment improves from increased experience, the hope is the turnovers will decrease and the assists will rise, which will make him not only a better player but a better teammate.
How good will he be?
It is important to note that Cousins is only 22 years old, and big men usually take longer to develop in the league. An opposing coach told me that when Cousins is engaged, he can be a solid defensive player, protecting the defensive glass and showing enough awareness to slide over and take charges; it all depends on whether he wants to play that night or not. In the right environment, he could be a positive contributor on the defensive end.
If he can refine his footwork in the post, improve his touch (both around the rim and from the perimeter), add some counters to his post game, bring more balance to his shot selection and continue to develop his passing game, he can develop into a better version of Zach Randolph.
That would put Cousins at the All-Star level. In fact, as Kevin Pelton wrote earlier this season, Cousins' projected WARP over the next three seasons is 34.7, which would place him among the league's top 10.
But a lot of this is contingent on his ability to accept coaching and subjugate himself to the team concept, and that starts with getting rid of his behavioral issues.
Does his behavior matter?
Teams that are consistently successful have strong organizational cultures. They set in place values and expectations for everyone, from ownership to the front office to the locker room. For young teams, the culture often precedes the actual winning. Think of the Thunder franchise in Kevin Durant's early seasons.
In such organizations, those who violate the principles and fail to assimilate are held accountable. Ownership, management and coaching all need to be on the same page in order to enforce the culture.
The Kings haven't been that kind of organization, that's for sure. But the behavior of Cousins, as their top talent, derails any attempt by the Kings to establish a culture for their young team. To make matters worse, through it all, he shows little remorse for his actions.
A quick recap of his transgressions from this season alone:
• Led the NBA with 17 technical fouls.
• Second in the NBA with four ejections, including one for elbowing an opposing player in the head, and one for telling a ref to "stop acting like a [expletive] female."
• Suspended by the NBA for two games for his verbal altercation with a broadcaster from opposing team.
• Suspended by the NBA for one game for striking an opposing player in the groin.
• Suspended by the Kings for conduct detrimental to the team for arguing with head coach Keith Smart during halftime.
Beyond that, his propensity for showing displeasure on the court, whether at teammates, referees or broadcasters, is a constant issue for the Kings to overcome. When Google's autocomplete software knows that "DeMarcus Cousins body language" is a common phrase, the team might have a problem.
As the closest thing Sacramento has to a star player, Cousins has so much leverage that the Kings haven't been able to do much to address his behavior effectively. And when they make moves that seem to accommodate him, such as firing coach Paul Westphal, the Kings confirm to Cousins that he is more important than the rules, values and expectations of the team.
So now, to expect that Smart can hold Cousins accountable is laughable, particularly when he has been forgiven by ownership and management repeatedly, as evidenced by his reinstatement when an "indefinite suspension" ended after just one game earlier this season.
So, yes, his behavior matters enormously to the Kings. With Cousins as the cornerstone, it's hard to imagine the team creating the culture necessary for consistent success.
Will his behavior change?
Why should he change? There is an adage from organizational behavior classes in business school: "You get what you incent."
Cousins has little incentive to do the right thing. He has been a petulant guy since high school, and let's see where that's gotten him in life:
• Full scholarship to Kentucky, one of the most storied college basketball programs of all time.
• Top-five selection in the NBA draft, along with a four-year, $16 million rookie scale deal.
• Enough leverage in an organization to warrant a coaching change.
From Cousins' perspective, his behavior has worked out tremendously so far. The only downside has been the occasional suspension along with some negative media coverage.
For troubled players who have skated by in life on their talent, my observation is the only way they change their behavior is if they undergo some sort of life-altering experience, usually tied to removal from the game of basketball (such as from a serious injury or other career-altering event).
Absent that stimulus, there is no reason for Cousins to believe he needs to adjust his behavior at all.
Can the Kings get fair trade value for Cousins?
The short answer is no. His troubled behavioral history is too well known around the NBA.
So the Kings must adjust their definition of fair value and accept they will not receive comparable talent for Cousins. They should, instead, hope for young players and mid-first-round draft picks in exchange. Of course, they can get even better assets if they're willing to accept bad contracts in the trade.
If and when they test the market for Cousins, the Kings will find that there are two types of trade partners in this case:
• Teams with strong cultures looking to get extreme bargains.
• Teams desperate for talent of any sort.
Obviously, there is more of an opportunity to recoup value with the latter, so the Kings should be creating a short list of those teams.
It can be hard to make a good deal when you are trading away a player rather than trading for a player. But that's the challenge the Kings will face if and when they decide to trade him.
Should they trade Cousins?
Yes. As long as they have an emerging star who operates "above the law," the Kings can't establish a team culture or hold other players accountable.
It would be naive to believe that Cousins will change. And by keeping him, you are accepting that you'll have to agree to pay him a max or near-max salary very soon.
Once the Kings accept this fate, the next question is: When should they trade him?
To get a good deal when trading away Cousins, the Kings will need to get a little lucky, and they'll need to handle the tricky balance of waiting patiently for the right deal and recognizing when the right deal has presented itself.
There are a few potential opportunities to consider:
They can try to move him the week of the June draft, when teams eager to upgrade talent sometimes make hasty decisions with the artificial "deadline" of the draft at work. Another option is to wait until after July 1, when teams with cap space that are unable to attract free agents might try to show their fan bases (and ownership) that they can bring in talent. As we saw with James Harden, teams might call with offers right before the Oct. 31 extension deadline, knowing that the Kings might be ready to make a move rather than go into next season with an unhappy Cousins. And of course, the February trade deadline is when a lot of deals get done.
But when the Kings make their decision to trade him, they must be 100 percent vested into this plan of action. Otherwise, the danger becomes "falling back in love" with Cousins and fooling themselves into thinking he has changed.
The Kings need to make this move. The sooner they accept that, the sooner they can start to make over the roster and build the culture that will get them out of the league's basement.