The NBA season is only two months old, but it is not too early to look ahead to the draft lottery in May.
The teams jockeying for position to draft top prospects Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey are either in the middle stages of rebuilding, have been impacted by injuries or underachieved through the first quarter of the season.
The Indiana Pacers, coming off a trip to the Eastern Conference finals, are an early potential lottery team. So are the Philadelphia 76ers, who won the offseason by signing free agent wing Paul George but find themselves in the conference's basement at 5-15. Philly is currently looking up at rebuilding teams such as the Detroit Pistons, Toronto Raptors and Charlotte Hornets, all of which are projected to land high picks in June's draft.
The Western Conference is as deep as ever, but three teams -- the rebuilding Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers and the injury-ravaged New Orleans Pelicans -- currently have the inside track at landing a top pick.
Guided by projections from ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI), NBA insiders Tim Bontemps, Jamal Collier, Chris Herring, Bobby Marks, Tim MacMahon and Michael C. Wright examine how eight projected lottery teams got here and what matters most the rest of the season. Draft experts Jonthan Givony and Jeremy Woo then break down the candidates who could go No. 1 -- headlined by Flagg -- and the latest buzz surrounding the highly anticipated 2025 draft class.
Jump to a section:
The bottom 8: Projections, outlooks
Traded draft picks we're watching
Flagg fits, plus more No. 1 contenders
Projected lottery teams
1. Washington Wizards (2-17)
Chance at No. 1 pick: 14.0%
Chance at top-5 pick: 93.9%
Why the Wizards are here
The Wizards have fully embraced their rebuild. Starting with the 2023 trade that sent Bradley Beal to the Phoenix Suns, Wizards president of basketball operations Michael Winger has made 11 trades, netting two first-round picks, 12 second-round picks and four years of pick swaps with Phoenix. One of those trades saw Washington deal Deni Avdija to Portland for the 14th pick (the draft rights to guard Bub Carrington), veteran Malcolm Brogdon and the second most favorable 2029 first-rounder among Portland, Boston and Milwaukee. The Wizards' roster could look much different after the Feb. 6 trade deadline, as Washington has the expiring contracts of Brogdon, Marvin Bagley III and veteran Jonas Valanciunas available to use in trades. -- Marks
What we're watching for the rest of 2024-25
An 0-14 November has the Wizards in pole position to finish with the league's worst record. They'll continue to give plenty of minutes to youngsters Bilal Coulibaly, Alex Sarr and Carrington along the way, too, as they hope to claim another impact player in the 2025 draft. -- Bontemps