2024 NBA draft: How teams evaluate prospects in the NCAA tournament

COLLEGE BASKETBALL'S SPOTLIGHT shines brightest in March when the sport takes center stage, the NBA regular season takes a narrative backseat and many hopeful draft prospects gain an extended opportunity to prove themselves.

Oftentimes, college players who make it to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament stand to benefit from an extended opportunity under the microscope. Sometimes, they don't get that chance, as this year's prospect-laden Kentucky team can attest. As NBA teams continue to do their homework entering the formal pre-draft process, rest assured they're watching carefully.

Player evaluation is intrinsically a holistic process. Teams in theory should be meticulous in gathering every piece of possible information before deciding on who to draft and where to select them.

In reality, there are human factors in play that do give postseason games added relevance. If a scout has a strong opinion on a player, tournament performance can naturally create confirmation bias. No matter how objective and measured a scout is, it's human nature to enjoy watching players rise to the occasion. The basketball community at large will always value winning.

From the perspective of the draft, the (multi) million-dollar question is always how much tournament performance actually matters in the eyes of NBA front offices. The answer is nuanced.

"You get to watch players in games where their backs are against the wall and see how they react to that," one Eastern Conference scout told ESPN. "This is do or die. So some guys you can see that they shrivel in those situations, and some guys thrive, and I think that's an important piece to the puzzle."

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MANY TOP DECISION-MAKERS spend more time traveling with their NBA teams during the season and as a result, don't get out on the road as much until March. While some ownership groups are more involved than others in how draft decisions are made, the NCAA tournament is a natural time for those types of influential figures -- who aren't necessarily professional scouts -- to key in on college prospects.

"Every exposure is a little piece, and then you take a look at the end and see what you got," said the Eastern Conference scout. "This is an important part though, because it's the national stage and most likely NBA general managers are watching. It's the last thing people see and it does impact draft stock, just like the combine will fluctuate opinion, because it's the last thing everyone sees. When a million people are looking versus 10 scouts, it does change opinions because it's more tangible right now and it's one of the last things you see."

In a win-or-go-home tournament, it's fair to debate how much one game should really matter. Take Kentucky, for example: The Wildcats' star freshmen came up short in their first-round loss to Oakland, including potential lottery picks Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham. Both players excelled during the regular season in big games, a large piece of what vaulted them into the lottery conversation. It's easy to disparage a heavy favorite for losing a game, but perhaps only so much of the blame game can fall on freshmen, and measured scouts will treat these performances accordingly.

"If a 19-year-old on the biggest stage of his life [struggles under pressure], OK, that probably checks out," another Eastern Conference scout told ESPN. "And there have been NCAA tournament darlings who have done nothing in the pros."

The pre-draft process is also a two-way street: Players, and those around them who have influence, ultimately make the decisions on their next step. A strong tournament showing can amplify positive feedback. While the advent of hefty name, image and likeness payments makes it easier than ever to justify returning to school from a financial standpoint, the idea of becoming a hot draft name, both in the media and behind the scenes, can certainly factor into how young players make these decisions. The other element of March performance is how teams view those games and how players might end up swaying themselves to turn pro as a business move.

"I think players who might have been on the fence often have more confidence to declare based on what they do in March," added the Eastern Conference scout, citing the 2018 NBA draft as an example. Players such as the Sacramento Kings' Kevin Huerter and the New York Knicks' Donte DiVincenzo parlayed strong play into excellent draft position, despite not being viewed as surefire early-entry names entering the month.

"From our standpoint, we've been watching guys all year," the scout said. "It's a body of work. But sometimes it's someone [breaking out] you've had an affinity for all season.