2024 NBA draft notebook: UConn's prospects, and is this the oldest class in recent history?

With the NCAA tournament around the corner, NBA front offices will be focused on the homestretch of the college basketball season.

The draft is still over three months away, but this will be the last chance scouts get to watch NBA prospects in a competitive environment ahead of the NBA combine in mid-May. With a wide-open draft class, there are still plenty of questions that remain ahead of an action-packed March:

Where do UConn's top prospects stand as March arrives? What are the NBA prospects of the top player on the current top team in country? And which mid-major player has a chance to be this year's Brandin Podziemski?

ESPN NBA draft insiders Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo tackle these questions along with the fluctuating age range of this year's draft class in the latest NBA draft notebook.

Which team will have the brightest draft spotlight in March?

Perhaps the brightest spotlight in college basketball will fall on UConn over the next few weeks, as the Huskies look to defend last season's championship. This creates a huge platform for their prospects, including projected first-rounders Donovan Clingan and Stephon Castle, to leave a lasting final impression. Some inconsistent play of late, highlighted in a blowout win over Marquette and a 19-point road loss at Creighton, has shed some light on where things stand with their talented roster.

It's been an up-and-down season for Clingan (ranked No. 11 in our top 100), who hasn't set college basketball on fire in his sophomore season but has put together a solid campaign after dealing with a foot injury early in the season. The 7-foot-2 center is capable of impacting games considerably with his size and has proved efficient around the rim, making 65.9% of his 2s this season and averaging four blocks per 40. Expecting a full Zach Edey-like breakout from Clingan would be inaccurate, but the intrinsic qualities Clingan possesses -- certainly in more of a throwback sense at center -- will always hold intrigue.

There are factors at play in the evaluation that might be out of Clingan's control: He's a fluid athlete for someone his size but still isn't particularly quick getting off the floor or moving his feet to recover and change directions in coverage. His rebounding numbers have been underwhelming due to the fact that he can be slow getting to 50-50 balls outside his area. He has exhibited some potential to stretch the floor in warmups, but he's not doing that yet, and his poor free throw shooting (55.9%) won't help his statistical case there. There's potentially a good bit of growth ahead for Clingan offensively due to his touch and footwork, but whether a big his size can function at a high level for extended minutes is salient. While Edey -- a common point of comparison -- can rely on his offensive dominance over multiple seasons to make a unique case for himself, Clingan isn't at that level as a scorer and it's likely not realistic to expect that.

I think this will ultimately become less a statistical case and more of an eye-test question for evaluators -- teams will be closely assessing Clingan's mobility and impact on the run of play in March as they attempt to realistically project his NBA impact during a season where he has underperformed at times. There's also a bit of concern about his injury track record at his size. The late lottery isn't out of the question, but much of this will ultimately come down to fit and need -- good organizations typically don't just draft a 7-2 center without a plan to optimize him.

Castle, UConn's other projected first-round pick (15th on our Big Board), is staring down a similar range of outcomes with his production ticking up in conference play but a fair number of questions surrounding his NBA readiness. There is quite a bit to like about him on the defensive end, where he has excellent size, balance and lateral quickness that makes him switchable and also tough for smaller guards to score on. His awareness in rotations guarding away from the ball can be a step slow, but he has been able to make positive contributions in the flow of the game, making hustle plays and applying pressure.

What has made Castle a challenging eval for teams are the real questions about how much offensive game he truly supplies and what that means for his positional fit. Castle has never been an especially intuitive creator with the ball, which has manifested in his role at UConn as more of a connective, auxiliary scorer. But his decision-making can be a tad slow, he often goes into the paint without much of a plan, and he has demonstrated a proclivity for taking difficult shots -- things that don't bode well for his ability to be an offensive creator. He projects most safely as an off-ball complementary piece, which places quite a bit of stress on his growth as a shooter, and he has made just 30% of his 3-point attempts thus far.

There are certainly flashes of talent with Castle, and in a draft like this he presents an interesting upside play, but teams will want to see the game slow down for him in March, when he'll be thrust onto the big stage. While he has stepped into a meaningful role, he still looks inexperienced a lot of the time, and the Huskies don't have a ton of other options. Castle can make or break a March run, and the NBA will be watching carefully.

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UConn's Stephon Castle shows out with windmill jam

UConn freshman Stephon Castle throws down a powerful windmill slam on the fast break vs. DePaul.

Another fascinating development has been the emergence of Rutgers transfer Cam Spencer as UConn's most consistent and arguably best player. In the midst of a scorching campaign from 3 (44% on six attempts per game), Spencer has been one of the most impactful transfers in college basketball and has put himself in the conversation as someone teams must consider as a potential shooting specialist despite his turning 24 before the draft. Spencer doesn't pass the eye test physically or athletically at 6-4, but he does a few very bankable things that tend to earn players opportunities: He's a natural shooter, he competes all the time and he can also pass the ball sneakily well. He might have to go through the undrafted free agent market, but he could certainly be a quality two-way contract player with room for more.

Sophomore forward Alex Karaban has seen his production dip of late but remains an invaluable piece of UConn's team. His game comes with enough quirks that he'll be an acquired taste for some -- he's a below-average athlete by NBA standards, has unorthodox crossbody shooting mechanics and doesn't create much for himself or others -- but it's easy to watch a UConn game and see the steadying effect he provides. Karaban is a smart passer, capable shooter, willing rebounder and active defender, and his mature, poised style of play covers for much of what he lacks at the college level. His ability to screen, position himself without the ball and make quick reads can be a huge driver for the Huskies when their offense stagnates.

Some teams love what he brings to the table as a role player, but he's also not the highest-ceiling prospect due to his limitations, which gives him an outside shot at the late first round and a wide range overall. Karaban's box-score contributions haven't been as strong against good competition this season, making this final stretch of the season immensely important for his chances of securing guaranteed money in the spring. -- Jeremy Woo

Are we still on pace for the oldest first round in recent draft history?

At the end of December, we highlighted a trend in our rankings that pointed toward the 2024 first round being the oldest (based on average age) since 2013. Two months later, the top 30 still appears to skew old but not historically so: The average age of the group is 20.27, down from where it was at 20.54 last we checked in, but still the highest average age of a projected first round since the 2016 draft.

What does that change mean currently? Not a ton, as the rankings remain extremely fluid going into March. We've seen younger players such as Juan Nunez and Johnny Furphy sneak into the back of the top 30 and skew the average a tad lower. Younger players such as Melvin Ajinca, Kyshawn George and Carlton Carrington sit just outside it, as do older prospects Dillon Jones, Jaylon Tyson and Oso Ighodaro. This storyline can evolve in either direction, as teams weigh the value of selecting a younger, less developed player in a draft heavy on projects, or taking a more experienced prospect and hoping for more immediate results.

It's still possible this draft produces a historically old first round, with players like Dalton Knecht, Kevin McCullar Jr., Zach Edey, Devin Carter and Tyler Kolek, who all will be aged 22 or older on draft night and are currently sitting in our top 30. As noted previously, the success of so many instant-impact older rookies in recent drafts seems likely to benefit some of these players, as the stigma surrounding the developmental upside has been somewhat displaced by the value of the immediate returns that can come from selecting NBA-ready older players. There's certainly an argument for teams to swing on upside and projection in a draft like this -- the other side of that coin is being comfortable selecting a known quantity, even if a player's perceived ceiling isn't as high.

Complicating matters, there simply haven't been many freshmen having banner seasons. The top names have more or less held their spots down over the past couple of months, with Rob Dillingham rising into our top five, and we've seen lesser-heralded prospects Furphy and George emerge as first-round candidates. But there are currently just 10 freshmen listed on our top 30, which would be the lowest such number since the 2016 draft. This remains a highly fluid situation entering March, but how teams ultimately decide to value bankable experience versus younger developmental options in the first round should remain a curiosity up until draft night. -- Woo

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Jamal Shead crosses his defender and drains a 3 for Houston

Jamal Shead puts a filthy move on his defender and knocks down a triple to pad the Cougars' lead.

The NBA future of Houston's Jamal Shead

Shead is the No. 1 player on a Houston Cougars team ranked No. 1 in college basketball and a surefire All-American. But what does that mean for his NBA prospects?

NBA teams have been shying away from drafting undersized guards in recent years -- no players under 6-2 heard their names called in last June's draft, and only one player of that stature was drafted in 2022 (Kennedy Chandler, who didn't make it through his rookie season before being released).

Shead is likely to measure a hair under 6-2 in shoes with a 6-3 wingspan and 198-pound frame, per Houston, meaning he's not going to blow anyone away physically at first glance.

What he lacks in pure measurables he makes up for in other ways, most importantly the way he contributes to winning as a three-year starter who has won 88% of his games in college. He played a key role for coach Kelvin Sampson's Elite Eight and Sweet 16 teams in 2022 and 2023, and has now stepped into a go-to role for a Cougars squad that is in first place in the Big 12 and has national championship aspirations.

Shead spearheads a ferocious defense ranked No. 1 in the country. His has the ability to smother the opponent with ball pressure, fight over screens, blitz pick-and-rolls and generate turnovers while sniffing out passing-lane steals from the weak side or lunging at opponents with high hands. He ensures that teams never feel comfortable running their half-court offense when he's on the floor.

We've seen other undersized guards such as Jose Alvarado and Jevon Carter find a way to carve out roles in the NBA by bringing nonstop intensity and toughness, but neither was as accomplished a floor general as Shead is with the way he distributes the ball and keeps mistakes to a minimum -- he boasts a 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Houston's coaches call Shead their "associate head coach" for the leadership he brings and the way he organizes the Cougars' offense and keeps teammates in line with the game plan, something NBA coaches will likely appreciate as well in a bench role.

The big key for Shead will be continuing to improve as a shooter. He came into the season a career 29% 3-point shooter but is up to 34% on the season. It's still not a great rate, but it's a step in the right direction, especially shooting off the dribble. NBA teams know Shead is arguably the best point guard in college basketball (along with Marquette's Tyler Kolek), and will want to see how he looks in other pre-draft settings to get a better feel for how his game translates to the NBA. While he's no lock to get drafted, it would be surprising if Shead didn't stick around the league for a long time in some capacity despite his lack of size and pure scoring ability, as he has many of the qualities teams look for in a backup. -- Jonathan Givony

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Dillon Jones throws down powerful flush vs. Eastern Washington Eagles

Dillon Jones throws down powerful flush vs. Eastern Washington Eagles

Could Weber State's Dillon Jones be this year's Brandin Podziemski?

Every year, one or two mid-major players catch fire in the pre-draft process and work their way into the first round. Last year it was Brandin Podziemski (Santa Clara) and Ben Sheppard (Belmont), in 2022 it was Jalen Williams (Santa Clara) and David Roddy (Colorado State), and in 2021, it was Santi Aldama (Loyola Maryland).

This year, it could be Jones, as he certainly checks a few boxes. It starts with his productivity as only the second college player in the past 25 years to average over 20 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists, along with Evan Turner at Ohio State in 2010, per the DraftExpress database.

Jones is a huge mismatch at the college level, playing power forward or even as a small-ball center at 6-6 with a 233-pound frame and 6-11 wingspan. He has the freedom to push off the defensive glass, initiate out of isolation or pick-and-roll, and attack smaller players in the post, being extremely difficult for Big Sky opponents to handle with the way he can dribble and pass with both hands skillfully. With just six dunks and seven blocks on the season, Jones' physical ability is not his strong point, but he's the type of highly intelligent dribble/pass/shoot forward who has become increasingly en vogue in today's NBA.

Considered a streaky shooter his first three years in college, Jones is hitting 35% of his 3-pointers and 44% of his pull-up 2s this season, while showing excellent touch at the free throw line (83%). This is a major swing skill for Jones in the pre-draft process, as he doesn't have the most natural shooting mechanics with his feet set but will likely need to transition into less of a ball-dominant role alongside better NBA players.

After a standout showing at the G League Elite Camp last May, earning him an invite to the NBA combine, NBA teams were likely hoping to see Jones' frame and defense make progress after he withdrew his name from the draft. He had the highest body fat percentage of any player in Chicago and doesn't appear to have made much progress there, as he has appeared winded early on in several games we watched. He doesn't play with a great deal of intensity on or off the ball, regularly being attacked by opponents. He walks around a little more than you'd hope but has a great feel for the game; being in the right spots helps him generate steals and rebounds in bunches, something that hopefully forebodes an ability to be more effective on this end of the floor at the next level.

Weber State is 9-6 in the Big Sky and will need to win three games in three days at its conference tournament to reach the NCAA tournament. It would be a huge platform for Jones and the Wildcats, who haven't played a single game against a Power 5 opponent this season.

Scouts will surely be watching the conference tournament (March 9-13 in Boise, Idaho) closely to see what kind of intensity Jones brings in what will likely be the biggest and possibly final games of his college career. He'll likely need to return to the NBA combine to try to make a run at the first round but will have some experience under his belt and some time to get in better shape before it. -- Givony