NBA draft survey: Who will go No. 1, the state of G League Ignite and the most intriguing prospect post-2024

The 2024 NBA draft is still six months away, but there appears to be a prospect that's currently trending as a frontrunner for the No. 1 pick.

ESPN's Jeremy Woo polled 20 NBA executives and scouts since the G League Winter Showcase to get a better handle on the 2024 draft and its major storylines. Team personnel offered their insights on five different topics, on the condition of anonymity. One of those questions was who executives expected to be the top pick in a draft class that appears to lack a generational prospect.

We also asked NBA personnel if they were in favor of a potential two-day draft, whether G League Ignite has been a success, if the 2024 draft class will have as many All-Stars as 2013 and the most intriguing prospect after this year.

1. Who do you expect will be the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft?

Results (20 ballots)

1. Alex Sarr: 12 votes

2. Not sure/declined to answer: 4 votes

3. Ron Holland: 2 votes

Also receiving votes: Nikola Topic, Isaiah Collier (1 vote each)

The uncertain nature of the 2024 NBA draft will be a major storyline up until June 27. The common refrain around the league has been that there's very little consensus at No. 1, with several voters emphasizing the choice will depend heavily on which team wins the May lottery.

With that in mind, based on the results of the poll, Perth's Alex Sarr appears to be trending as the current frontrunner, following a strong month of December in the National Basketball League in Australia.

The 7-foot-1 French big man is currently sidelined with a hip injury but is presently expected to return before the end of the season. It's worth noting that several of the Sarr voters expressed their lack of confidence in that outcome, but viewed him as the tentative best bet.

"We are in a strange cycle this year where there is no consensus, and it may be more practical for the team at No. 1 to factor in individual need [more heavily than normal] to make the first pick work," one high-ranking Western Conference executive told ESPN. "For example, if that team has [a] need for a big that has utility-based upside, they may be best served taking Sarr."

Sarr's youth, versatility as a mobile defender and perimeter-friendly forward -- coupled with the league-wide demand for tall, skilled frontcourt players -- could give him the broadest degree of appeal amongst the top candidates. Sarr's NBL role has been modest, but he's grown into it nicely and demonstrated he can impact winning, which puts him in a good developmental place for a 7-footer who has yet to turn 19 and is still getting his first real taste of high-level basketball.

Despite his star dimming somewhat over the past couple months, G League Ignite's Ron Holland received two votes, with Serbian Nikola Topic and USC's Isaiah Collier each receiving one. Our highest-ranked prospect not to receive a vote was French wing Zaccharie Risacher, who continues to trend as a top-five selection.

2. What class will end up with more All-Stars: 2013 (three) or 2024?

1. 2013: 13 votes

2. 2024: 5 votes

3. Tie: 2 votes

The 2013 NBA draft is regarded as one of the worst in modern league history, with No. 1 overall pick Anthony Bennett washing out of the league in less than five years, and the draft producing just three All-Stars: Victor Oladipo (No. 2 pick, whose career has been marred by injury), two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo (No. 15 pick), and four-time All-NBA and three-time defensive player of the year Rudy Gobert (No. 27 pick). Other than CJ McCollum, who's had an excellent career after being selected at No. 10, the rest of that class hasn't been particularly notable.

Using 2013 as a barometer, we asked team personnel to venture a guess at how the 2024 class might stack up. Participants were not asked to specify which players could break out at the next level but simply whether they thought 2024 might produce more All-Star level talent.

Responses were mostly pessimistic, although there was some cautious optimism to be found, with one executive citing the overall advances league-wide in player development over the past decade. Another exec expressed a hunch that, much like 2013, a surprise star or two might be lying in wait beyond the obvious top-pick candidates. So, while the attitude around the NBA has largely been that 2024 projects as a down year for draftable talent, it's worth keeping in mind how unexpected and seemingly random player development can be.

3. Are you in favor of the NBA draft being conducted over two days?

1. No: 14 votes

2. Yes: 6 votes

The current expectation around the NBA is the league likely moving to a two-day draft format this year, with the first and second rounds taking place on separate days. That move would help slow down the often hectic pace of the draft, particularly in the second round, where teams are afforded less time on the clock to make decisions (the first round clock lasts five minutes; the second round has traditionally been two).

Voters largely preferred the one-day draft format, expressing some resistance to change, the value of simply getting the draft over within a night, and even some appreciation for the frenetic pace, which moves much faster than the NFL draft, for comparison. Some felt the shorter draft creates a competitive advantage for well-prepared teams, and that more time levels the playing field, but in a way that isn't fully necessary.

Those in favor of the potential change felt it would be valuable for teams to have added time to make transactions around the draft and to strategize around their second-round selections.

"Round 2 goes by so fast and half the time we [can't keep track of] who's getting selected," one Eastern Conference general manager told ESPN. "It would help every team to have that extra day, but more importantly the players getting selected can be spotlighted more, instead of the picks going at lightning speed."

"It's probably a nightmare for agents dealing with their clients who thought they would be selected in the first round," another Eastern Conference executive told ESPN, "but the change would be better for teams and the overall process."

4. Would you consider G League Ignite a success?

1. Yes: 12 votes

2. No: 7 votes

3. Declined to answer: 1 vote

At December's G League Showcase, where Ignite lost twice, we took the temperature of team personnel, asking them to assess the program's progress, which is now in its fourth season. There was a wide range of opinions on the matter and voters aired on the optimistic side, with many expressing the positives (player development and preparation, the creation of an alternate draft pathway, and exposure for evaluation purposes) have outweighed the program's struggles (underscored by this year's roster of eight draft prospects largely not playing to expectations).

Voters seemed largely satisfied with Ignite's player development track record, which has hosted lottery-level players such as Portland's Scoot Henderson, Houston's Jalen Green, Golden State's Jonathan Kuminga and New Orleans' Dyson Daniels, and seen the majority of its prospects drafted (only three Ignite prospects, Daishen Nix, Fanbo Zeng and Michael Foster Jr., have gone undrafted). But there was also a wide concession the program has hit tough straits this season, and that the current setup wasn't necessarily being optimized for all the players to succeed. But overall, voters seemed optimistic about the potential of the Ignite concept long-term.

"I wish they would maybe focus on fewer prospects per season, but in general, I think it prepares those kids for the next level well," one Eastern Conference scout told ESPN, "[but] if you have too many, some get left behind a bit."

Concerns included Ignite's ability to recruit moving forward against the growth of name, image and likeness budgets amongst college programs. Another critique was the program's top products all entered the program with significant buzz, and Ignite struggled to help some of the more fringe talents develop the necessary skills to succeed and stick in the NBA. There's a constant challenge to incentivize prospects to play winning basketball, versus competing primarily to enhance their own draft positioning.

"This is the big difference between evals of college players and the Ignite," a Western Conference executive told ESPN. "The players at Connecticut are playing for the national championship, while winning the G League title doesn't have as much value to the players."

5. Who is the most intriguing prospect not currently eligible for the draft?

1. Cooper Flagg: 12 votes

2. A.J. Dybantsa: 3 votes

Also receiving votes: Caleb Holt, Ace Bailey, V.J. Edgecombe (1 vote each); two voters declined to answer.