When the Cleveland Cavaliers announced Friday that two of their three leading scorers are set to undergo surgery, it raised questions about the remaining healthy star in that group.
With All-Star guard Darius Garland (jaw fracture) and 2022-23 All-Defensive first team Evan Mobley (arthroscopic surgery on his left knee) set to miss at least four weeks apiece -- Mobley's expected timeline is six to eight weeks -- the Cavaliers must confront the possibility that a deep playoff run is no longer in the cards this season.
That, in turn, affects the future of All-NBA guard Donovan Mitchell, who has two years remaining on his contract before a player option allows him to test unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2025. Cleveland was already facing a difficult decision on whether to take Mitchell into a potential walk year in pursuit of a championship or trade him in time to recoup some of the draft picks sent to the Utah Jazz to acquire Mitchell in September last year.
If the Cavaliers believe their 2023-24 season has already been derailed by injury, they may have to move up the timetable for that decision in order to maximize Mitchell's trade value. Let's look at the questions Cleveland must answer, as well as potential suitors should the Cavaliers make their star guard available for trade.
Can Cleveland still be a playoff threat?
The Cavaliers did get some good news Saturday when they defeated the slumping Atlanta Hawks at home, improving to eighth in the East at 14-12. Mitchell's presence, along with All-Star center Jarrett Allen, means Cleveland is hardly doomed without Garland and Mobley in the lineup for the next month.
The Cavaliers face a pair of problems as they project out the rest of their season, however. First, the Eastern Conference looks deeper than expected. With the emergence of the Orlando Magic, who beat Cleveland at home last week in a game Mobley missed but Garland played, there are six East teams on pace for 46 wins or more. That's an upgrade from last season, when 42 wins were all it took to avoid the play-in tournament in the top-heavy conference.
Second, the Cavaliers simply haven't been all that good at full strength compared to 2022-23, when they won 51 games and had the NBA's second-best point differential at plus-5.4 PPG. In the 11 games where Cleveland had its first-choice starting lineup (Allen, Garland, Mitchell, Mobley and newcomer Max Strus), the team was 6-5 with a plus-2.5 point differential.
As a result, the Cavaliers can't count on making up ground quickly when Garland and Mobley return, which suggests they're more likely than not headed to the play-in tournament. ESPN Analytics' BPI projections show Cleveland advancing directly to the playoffs as a top-six seed in just 37% of simulations.
Yes, the Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers showed last year that it's possible to make a deep playoff run from the play-in. Those were experienced playoff teams with recent Finals appearances to their credit, however. The Cavaliers underperformed in a first-round upset against the New York Knicks last season, and of their core players, only Mitchell has ever advanced to even the second round. If Cleveland can no longer count on anything more than a one-and-done playoff appearance, trading Mitchell now looks more palatable.
Can the Cavaliers reasonably keep Mitchell next season?
In an era where star players typically sign extensions rather than hitting free agency, Cleveland keeping Mitchell without one next summer would be unorthodox. Over the past two free agencies, just three players have become unrestricted within two years of an All-NBA appearance: Bradley Beal and James Harden in 2022 and Kyrie Irving last summer.
All three of those players were in substantially different situations than Mitchell. Beal had played his entire career for the Washington Wizards, signing a pair of extensions when the conditions were more favorable before re-signing in free agency. Harden and Irving had arrived with new teams the previous deadline after trade requests and both also chose to re-sign.
To find a better comparison for Mitchell requires going back to the 2018-19 season, when several teams had impending free agents they knew might look elsewhere at season's end. The Boston Celtics acquired Irving with two years left until free agency, while the Toronto Raptors actually added Kawhi Leonard heading into his walk year. Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors had former MVP Kevin Durant's free agency hanging over their defense of two titles with him on the roster.
All three teams considered themselves championship contenders. The Celtics flamed out in the second round against the Milwaukee Bucks, but the Raptors and Warriors reached the Finals, where Leonard led Toronto to a title and won Finals MVP honors before departing for the LA Clippers in free agency. Durant, who ruptured his right Achilles against Leonard's Raptors in Game 5 of the Finals, and Irving jointly signed with the Brooklyn Nets during the offseason.
Given their chance at a championship, the Warriors and Raptors probably would play things out the same way. Boston saw speculation over Irving's departure overshadow its season and didn't reap the expected benefits in the playoffs. Trading Irving would have made more sense in hindsight.
We've seen stars surprise us by staying put in the past. Like Toronto, the Oklahoma City Thunder acquired Paul George heading into his final season before free agency in pursuit of a title. Despite losing in the opening round to the Jazz in 2018, Oklahoma City was able to re-sign George to a long-term contract and got a ransom in return when he requested a trade to join Leonard with the Clippers the following summer after another first-round playoff exit.
Still, the history is clear. Keeping a star (or acquiring one) for a walk year only makes sense if there's a realistic chance at winning a championship. Based on what we've seen so far from the Cavaliers this season, that's a tough case to make for 2024-25.
Will the market for Mitchell be better next summer?
The strongest case for patience by the Cavaliers would be the possibility of getting similar value in a trade for Mitchell next summer. There are a couple of factors worth considering here. Right now, Mitchell would clearly be the biggest star available for trade, accelerating the bidding war among teams that could reasonably expect to extend or re-sign him. In particular, the Nets, Knicks and Heat fit that group.
At the same time, putting together a blockbuster trade midseason can be more challenging because teams must have room on their roster to add all the players they acquire. Cleveland should be able to work around that challenge with an open roster spot, plus two more players (Sam Merrill and Tristan Thompson) on non-guaranteed contracts. (Cleveland will have to decide whether to guarantee the players' contracts before Jan. 8.)
Additionally, Mitchell's modest salary for a star ($33.2 million) means it's unlikely another team will have to cobble together multiple contracts to match. Miami has Tyler Herro ($27 million) and Kyle Lowry ($29.7 million) in that range, New York nearly gets there with Evan Fournier's $18.9 million salary and Brooklyn could use either Spencer Dinwiddie ($20.4 million) or Ben Simmons ($37.9 million) as the centerpiece.
Depending on the construction, it might be easier to trade with these teams now because Dinwiddie and Lowry have expiring contracts, while Fournier's deal is effectively expiring because his $19 million base salary for 2024-25 is a team option.
The Heat and Knicks are in a similar position in terms of their desire to have Mitchell now, ahead of the 2024 playoffs. Both teams are ahead of the Cavaliers in the East standings, putting them in position to make the playoffs directly. In a conference with two teams (Boston and Philadelphia) sporting differentials of plus-9.0 PPG or better, neither team would be anything close to the favorite to come out of the East, but adding Mitchell could be the difference between winning a round or not.
There's presumably less urgency for the Nets, who are mired in the East play-in picture aside Cleveland. At the same time, any team acquiring Mitchell now would have a full offseason to retool the roster around him, as we saw the Phoenix Suns do last summer after adding Durant from Brooklyn at the trade deadline.
Until we know how much interested teams are willing to offer, it's hard to say if the Cavaliers definitely should trade Mitchell now. Yet it's increasingly evident Cleveland would be mistaken not to begin trade conversations before the deadline.
Even if a trade doesn't materialize by the deadline, opening trade negotiations now could ultimately set up a deal down the road. We saw that happen with the Memphis Grizzlies and Mike Conley in 2019. The Grizzlies held on to Conley at the deadline despite trading away their other franchise cornerstone, Marc Gasol. Memphis was ultimately able to deal Conley to the Utah Jazz before the draft, facilitating their rapid rebuild around No. 2 pick Ja Morant.
With Garland on an extension through 2027-28 and Mobley still awaiting an extension to his rookie contract, the Cavaliers can't prioritize slim hopes at contending during Mitchell's contract over their ability to keep this window open through the primes of their other stars.