By the nature of how the rosters are chosen, the NBA All-Star Game can be something of a popularity contest. Will the 2023 game in Salt Lake City, Utah, prove to be different?
Starters are voted on by a combination of fans, media and other players, while reserves are chosen by a vote of the league's coaches. Outstanding performance matters, but reputation matters nearly as much and can result in some players struggling to break through to get honored.
Take last year's game, for example. Of the 24 players initially named to the All-Star rosters, 20 of them had been All-Stars before. The game featured seven first-time All-Stars, but three of those were selected as injury replacements, which are chosen by NBA commissioner Adam Silver. Still, there's room every year for someone to make his first All-Star game entirely on merit. In fact, just three seasons ago, the 2020 All-Star Game featured nine first-time All-Stars, some of whom -- like Trae Young, Luka Doncic, Donovan Mitchell and Jayson Tatum -- have become perennial selections and are likely to be playing in Salt Lake City on Feb. 19.
As for who could follow in their footsteps as first-time All-Stars, there is no shortage of candidates. Let's look at the five players with the strongest case for making their All-Star Game debuts in 2023.
Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers
When the Pacers traded All-Star Domantas Sabonis for a package led by Haliburton last season, the thought was the 22-year-old guard could eventually become an All-Star. Few expected it to happen this quickly.
In his first full season with the Pacers, Haliburton is leading the league in virtually every key shot-creation marker. His passes lead to more than 26 shots per game, according to Second Spectrum tracking, which is most in the league ahead of perennial All-Stars such as Denver's Nikola Jokic, Philadelphia's James Harden and Phoenix's Paul. His league-leading 10.9 assists per contest generate a whopping 28.9 points per game for Indiana, which is also the top figure in the association.
Haliburton has also become an elite shot creator for himself, with 76% of his shots this season being unassisted. Among the top 50 most active unassisted shooters this season, Haliburton ranks third in efficiency, per Second Spectrum, with a 58.3% effective field goal percentage (the NBA average is. 49.1%), trailing only Curry and Mitchell, who also are perennial All-Stars.
Before the season started, ESPN's summer forecast projected the Pacers to finish last in the Eastern Conference at 23-59. Thanks to the emergence of Haliburton, the Pacers have a top-10 offense, and have already won 10 games, putting them in the top half of the Eastern Conference standings.
The COVID-19 pandemic cost Indiana an All-Star Game two seasons ago, when the 2021 game was moved from Indianapolis to Atlanta. Haliburton is a deserving first-time selection, and an All-Star appearance for him would start to make up for that loss.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
Of the 62 players who have averaged at least 30 points per game prior to the All-Star break in NBA history, 60 made the All-Star Game (with 54 of those 60 being named as starters). The only two who didn't -- Wilt Chamberlain in 1970 and Adrian Dantley in 1983 -- were both injured.
So pencil Gilgeous-Alexander's name onto the roster this season.
At 24, the Thunder combo guard is one of the NBA's best scorers right now, ranking third in the league at 31.1 points per game, behind only Doncic and Golden State's Stephen Curry. That scoring average alone should be more than enough to justify Gilgeous-Alexander's first All-Star selection, but this rising star is more than just a walking bucket. He's one of he most active offensive players in the league right now.
No player has driven the ball to the rack more than he has so far this season, and only 8 ball handlers in the league have been in more pick and roll actions.
Through 19 games, Gilgeous-Alexander currently has a higher usage rate than Lakers forward LeBron James, Nets forward Kevin Durant and Warriors guard Stephen Curry.
Oklahoma City leans on his offensive leadership for a reason -- good things happen for the Thunder when he's making things happen. When Gilgeous-Alexander is in games this season, the Thunder's offense is producing 114.6 points per 100 possessions, a number that would rank eighth in the league at the team level. But when he has been on the bench, that key figure craters down to 102.6, which would rank as the worst offensive efficiency in the league.
He's one of the league's most creative and most self-sufficient volume scorers, blending handles, footwork and a diverse package of shot types as well as any player under 25, and this season he has improved his scoring efficiency significantly.
Last year, an average Gilgeous-Alexander shot produced 1.02 points, a figure that ranked in the 35th percentile according to Second Spectrum. This season, that number is 1.15 points, which is in the 74th percentile.
The single biggest factor powering his efficiency uptick is improvement in his jump-shooting numbers. Last season, among the NBA's 100 most active jump shooters, Gilgeous-Alexander ranked 95th in efficiency, logging a lowly effective field goal percentage of just 44.7% on his jump shots. This year he ranks 52nd, with a eFG% of 50.8, which is just a hair above the league average but still represents significant improvement in a "make or miss" league.
As a jump shooter, he's also one of the only young stars who still seeks out midrange shots. At the exact same time the NBA is turning its back on non-paint 2s, Gilgeous-Alexander is going the other way. He ranks in the top 10 of non-paint 2s attempted this season, and only Durant, Chicago's DeMar DeRozan and Philadelphia's Joel Embiid are converting midrange shots at higher rates among that group. Maybe it was his time with Chris Paul a few years ago (or maybe not?), but this young man is becoming one of the NBA's few young midrange savants.
His bag of tricks is as deep as any other young scorer in the league. By flirting with 50-40-90 numbers -- his 39.1% 3-point shooting is currently the only number south of that holy trinity of thresholds -- he is becoming one of the most complete and efficient volume scorers in the league.
De'Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings
The Beam Team is the talk of the league. The Kings are cooking the competition with a devastating offense led by Fox, who is having by far his best season in his sixth year in the league.
Fox, 24, has built a reputation for being one of the fastest players on the hardwood, and that speed is still his signature trait. When he is on the court, the Kings become the fastest team in the league, logging possessions at a blistering 104 per 48 minute clip.
Fox has always put up All-Star-worthy scoring numbers, averaging better than 20 points per game in each of the past three seasons. This season, he has upped his game even further, averaging a career-high 25.4 points while shooting career bests from 2-point range (60.2%), 3-point range (39.0%) and the free-throw line (81.0%).
More importantly for Fox's All-Star case, the Kings are winning games. During his career, Sacramento has never been higher than ninth in the Western Conference at the time of the All-Star break. In four of the past five seasons, the Kings have entered the break in 13th place. While there's plenty of time between now and when All-Star rosters are selected, the Kings have won eight of their past 11 games to move into fifth place in the West, potentially putting Fox & Co. on track to end the longest postseason drought in major North American professional sports (since 2006). That'd certainly be worthy of an All-Star selection.
Lauri Markkanen, Utah Jazz
Like Indiana and Sacramento, Utah was not supposed to be good this season. Well, the Jazz are, and Markkanen's breakout season is helping fuel Utah's surprising start.
After uninspiring stints with the Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers, the No. 7 pick in the 2017 draft is putting up the best scoring numbers of his career. Markkanen is averaging 22.0 points per game, and coach Will Hardy's wide-open offensive spaces have enabled Markkanen to thrive in new ways. The 7-footer ranks eighth in the NBA in total field goals in the paint this season, per Second Spectrum, and among the NBA's top 20 most active paint shooters this season, he ranks second in efficiency, converting 66% of his shots in the lane (the NBA average is 57%).
Markkanen is also shooting 36.5% from 3-point range this season, but that's only a fraction of the story. Markkanen leads all forwards in catch-and-shoot 3-pointers this season, making 111 of them on 40.5% shooting, per Second Spectrum. Markannen's ability to space out opposing defenses as a 7-footer is a vital component of Utah's wide-open offensive look.
Markkanen, who came to Utah from Cleveland in the Mitchell trade, is a prototypical big for the modern NBA. He's big, strong, skilled and able to thrive as both a 3-point scorer and an interior threat. For a player of his size, his ability to both shoot it and drive the ball from the edges to the rim is particularly impressive, and comes in handy within Utah's spacey schemes -- and could give the Jazz a hometown All-Star this season.
Desmond Bane, Memphis Grizzlies
If it weren't for a sprained right big toe Bane suffered earlier this month, he'd be the player making the strongest case to debut in his first All-Star game. No other player was turning more heads than he was to start the NBA season.
In just his fourth game of the season, Bane outdueled both Durant and Kyrie Irving, scoring a career-high 38 points and adding seven assists (tied for a career high) as the Grizzlies beat the Brooklyn Nets. Bane shot 10-of-13 on unassisted shots that night, creating 26 of those points himself and signaling to the NBA that he was a vastly more complete scorer than he had been in his first two seasons in the league.
Bane has emerged as one of the best young 3-point threats in the game. He has made an eye-popping 43.6% of almost 900 3-point career attempts, but in his first two seasons, a vast majority of his looks were assisted by Grizzlies teammates. While his numbers were already drawing comparisons to elite catch-and-shoot stars, such as Golden State's Klay Thompson, Bane's red-hot breakout this season has been fueled by self-created buckets, and his newfound proficiency as an unassisted scorer is reframing the discussion on his ceiling.
In his first season, he was attempting five unassisted shots per 100 possessions. Last year, that number grew to 10.1. This season, it has ballooned again to 14.5, despite the fact Bane is playing next to Ja Morant, one of the highest-usage teammates in the league.
The ability to blend efficiency and volume as an unassisted scorer is a key component of superstardom in pro hoops, and that's exactly what Bane has added to his game in Year 3.
Unfortunately, Bane's incredible start to this season was upended by the cruel sting of the injury bug. Still, if he's able to return to action in December, he might have enough time to reestablish himself as a compelling All-Star candidate.
Other Candidates
Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers
Maxey's eye-popping early start was upended by an injury that will likely cost the 76ers a few wins and might cost Maxey a chance at making his All-Star debut. Before his foot injury, Maxey was averaging more than 22 points per game, giving the 76ers a legitimate third star next to Joel Embiid and James Harden. Now he's on the shelf, and it might be hard for him to garner enough support to get a reserve spot if he misses a month or more of action.
Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
Edwards is only 21 but has already shown flashes of greatness. He is on his way to becoming an All-Star in his third year in the league but hasn't made the leap just yet. The Wolves are off to an up-and-down start, and Edwards' key markers haven't changed much since last season. But Minnesota has suddenly won five of its past seven, and if the Timberwolves keep winning like this and Edwards gets hot in December, he will have a compelling case to make the All-Star team this season.
Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
In his first 20 games as a member of the Knicks, Brunson has played well, leading his team in both scoring and assists. There's no question he has been solid early, but is he an All-Star? That's still a stretch, especially because Brunson is competing for attention in the Eastern Conference backcourt category that is packed with established candidates.
If one rookie is going to crack the All-Star rosters this year, it could be Banchero, who leads all rookies with 23.2 points per game. As an individual, he has logged impressive numbers, but the Magic are only 2-10 when Banchero has played. A closer look reveals his jumper is still a work in progress. Banchero has made just 26 of his 94 jump shots this season, per Second Spectrum, including just 26% of his 3-point tries. Still, it's not unusual for rookies to struggle with shooting efficiency, and Banchero's early numbers demand respect. He will be an All-Star eventually, but will it be this year?
Anfernee Simons, Portland Trail Blazers
In his fifth year in the NBA, Simons has leveled up. He is now averaging more than 23 points per game and has given Portland another versatile scorer next to Damian Lillard. With Lillard out Friday, Simons showed the world his All-Star credentials, pouring in 38 points on 25 shots at Madison Square Garden as the Blazers beat the Knicks in an overtime thriller. It was his finest game of the season, and if he has a few more like that in the next two months, he will be an All-Star this season.