After a busy summer in the NBA, what can we expect during the 2022-23 season? My stats-based win projections are back to help answer that question, at least during the regular season.
One of the biggest challenges for statistical projections is how disconnected the NBA's 82-game schedule has been from the playoffs. None of the four No. 1 seeds over the past two campaigns has reached the NBA Finals, the first time that's happened in back-to-back years since 2011 and 2012.
With injuries to star players becoming more common and the past two regular seasons marked by absences due to health and safety protocols, team performance from year to year hasn't been this inconsistent in decades. (Keep that in mind when you see where your favorite team is projected below.)
Nonetheless, statistical projections can be revealing. Mine are based on a combination of my SCHOENE player projections for box score stats as well as three-year, luck-adjusted Regularized Adjusted Four Factors (RAPM) from NBAshotcharts.com. I estimate games played based on those missed over the past three years then make subjective predictions for playing time.
The result is an expected wins total based on average health luck. Because some teams will have better or worse fortune, but we don't know which ones, the average totals will inevitably be closer to .500 than the actual final standings.
Let's take a look.
Western Conference
1. Phoenix Suns
Average wins: 49.0
No statistical projection can factor in the possible mental toll of Phoenix's lopsided Game 7 loss to the Dallas Mavericks last season nor whatever is going on between newly signed center Deandre Ayton and the organization. Still, the Suns have enough talent and a big enough cushion from last season's 64 wins to project atop the West. Note their predicted rotation does not include Jae Crowder, as the team and the veteran forward agreed he would stay home from training camp while awaiting a possible trade.
2. Denver Nuggets
Average wins: 47.9
Yes, Denver won 48 games without injured guard Jamal Murray last season (and with just nine injury-limited games for Michael Porter Jr.), but the Nuggets look stronger relative to the rest of the West with their return. Denver was sixth in the West last year and last finished as a top-two seed in 2019, when the team won its first playoff series in a decade.
3. New Orleans Pelicans
Average wins: 47.6
My projections are high on the Pelicans' chances of making a leap with a full season of CJ McCollum and Larry Nance Jr., acquired in February, as well as the healthy return of Zion Williamson. New Orleans played 3.8 points per game better than average with McCollum in the lineup and backed up that performance in a hard-fought opening-round loss against Phoenix. Add in Williamson, conservatively forecast for 1,400 minutes, and the Pelicans could force their way into a crowded West playoff picture.
4. Memphis Grizzlies
Average wins: 46.1
Some backsliding might be in store for the Grizzlies after last season's 56 wins, the league's second-best total. Memphis lost two key reserves, De'Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson, who project better than their replacements. And Jaren Jackson Jr. is penciled in for 49 games as he returns from surgery to repair a stress fracture in his right foot.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves
Average wins: 45.7
The Timberwolves are perhaps the most interesting of the five teams projected in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating after finishing just outside that group last season (13th in defensive rating). The addition of three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert naturally boosts Minnesota at that end.
6. LA Clippers
Average wins: 43.6
Despite a roster deep on proven NBA contributors, the Clippers project far better for the postseason because of their ability to ramp up the minutes of stars Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Neither George (64 games) nor Leonard (57) is forecast for full seasons coming off injuries. And although the Clippers have a variety of players capable of filling in, none is nearly as effective at creating shots, hence a surprisingly weak projection that shouldn't discourage the idea of the Clippers as strong championship contenders.
7. Dallas Mavericks
Average wins: 43.1
As much as the loss of guard Jalen Brunson, a key question for the Mavericks will be whether they can maintain last season's jump from 21st in defensive rating to seventh under new coach Jason Kidd. These projections are skeptical, explaining Dallas' drop in the West standings.
8. Golden State Warriors
Average wins: 41.9
The two years Golden State spent in the lottery between losing in the 2019 NBA Finals and reclaiming the title in June have thrown this and many other stats-based projections off the scent of their true talent. Last year's FiveThirtyEight projections opened with the Warriors at 37 wins on average, and even after Golden State reached the Finals, the Dubs were still listed as huge underdogs to the Celtics. A full season of contention helps the Warriors' ratings, naturally, but losing Otto Porter Jr. and RAPM superstar Gary Payton II works against them. Despite those losses, I expect Golden State to outperform this projection and be back near the top of the West.
9. Los Angeles Lakers
Average wins: 36.8
Unlike the deep East, there's a big drop-off in my West projections from the top eight teams to the group fighting for the final two play-in spots. The Lakers can rightfully expect better health from stars Anthony Davis and LeBron James than last season, when they won just 33 games. But only Patrick Beverley rates well among the team's revamped backcourt rotation, and the Lakers' minimum additions at center (Thomas Bryant and Damian Jones) also lag as compared to their peers at the position.
10. Portland Trail Blazers
Average wins: 36.6
Like the Lakers, the Blazers are trying to return to the postseason after a deep drop-off in 2021-22 caused in large part by Damian Lillard playing just 29 games. Although Portland has reshuffled the supporting cast around Lillard, my projections still forecast this as one of the league's worst defenses (29th), limiting the Blazers' upside.
11. Sacramento Kings
Average wins: 36.5
As I explained on the Lowe Post last week, the Kings have a great chance at reaching the play-in tournament despite being projected 11th. It's unlikely one of the teams behind them will jump Sacramento, while the Lakers or Blazers could easily fall out of the top 10. That wouldn't qualify as ending the Kings' 16-season playoff drought, but it would give them a shot to win their way into the first round.
12. Utah Jazz
Average wins: 34.9
If the Jazz keep their current roster all season, it's possible they could push for a play-in spot. However, that's surely not Utah's goal after trading Gobert and Donovan Mitchell in deals that prioritized draft capital in return. Most likely, the Jazz will find new homes for their remaining veterans and happily improve their lottery odds.
13. San Antonio Spurs
Average wins: 31.2
There's still talent here after the Spurs traded Dejounte Murray in another future-focused deal. Jakob Poeltl is a fine center, and the Keldon Johnson-Devin Vassell wing duo is strong. After them, San Antonio's depth quickly drops off, helping explain why Gregg Popovich can admit the Spurs aren't worth betting to win the championship.
14. Oklahoma City Thunder
Average wins: 26.9
Injuries to Chet Holmgren and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have increased the odds that Oklahoma City spends another year near the bottom of the NBA standings even as the team's young talent continues to develop. As a rookie, Holmgren would have rated as the Thunder's second-best player after Gilgeous-Alexander.
15. Houston Rockets
Average wins: 26.7
Like Oklahoma City, Houston continues to build a young core led by recent lottery picks Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. This season will likely again feature far more losses than wins as the Rockets prepare to ascend the standings starting in 2023-24.
Eastern Conference
1. Boston Celtics
Average wins: 53.9
Even with Danilo Gallinari sidelined due to an ACL tear in his left knee that will surely cost him the entire season and Robert Williams III out an extended period following knee surgery, the Celtics have a rock-solid top seven with the addition of Malcolm Brogdon. Additional injuries are a concern with Boston's depth dropping off quickly, but the team has the NBA's best projection by more than four wins after finishing 2021-22 with the league's second-best point differential and reaching the NBA Finals.
2. Milwaukee Bucks
Average wins: 49.5
At four seasons running, the Bucks boast the NBA's longest streak of winning the equivalent of 50 wins, with nobody else at more than two consecutive seasons. (Milwaukee went 46-26 in 2020-21, which would translate to 52 wins over an 82-game schedule.) With the core of those Milwaukee teams back, the Bucks have a good chance of making it five.
3. Philadelphia 76ers
Average wins: 48.3
Although Philadelphia's win projection is down a bit from last year's 51, the Sixers look slightly better relative to the rest of the East after finishing as the fourth seed. After adding stout defenders in De'Anthony Melton and P.J. Tucker, Philadelphia is one of five teams projected to finish in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating.
4. Toronto Raptors
Average wins: 47.4
As compared to their peers in the East's second tier, the Raptors had a far less eventful offseason. I project 92% of the team's minutes to go to returning players, with Otto Porter Jr. as the biggest addition. Still, Toronto's strong finish and young core puts the Raptors ahead of their splashier counterparts.
5. Atlanta Hawks
Average wins: 46.2
Adding an All-Star in Dejounte Murray should help upgrade an Atlanta defense that ranked 26th on a per-possession basis last season. The Hawks are projected to improve to 19th while remaining second in offensive rating, for a solid combination.
6. Miami Heat
Average wins: 45.9
Overachieving projections is nothing new for the Heat, who had the fourth-highest preseason over/under wins total in the East last season but finished as the top seed. Miami would benefit from a healthy campaign for guard Victor Oladipo, whose projection is modest coming off just 60 total games over his past three injury-plagued seasons.
7. Brooklyn Nets
Average wins: 45.6
Even on paper, my projections aren't impressed by this Nets group after a disappointing 2021-22 season. Star forward Kevin Durant is forecast for just 51 games after playing 55 last season, while none of Brooklyn's role players alongside Durant, Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons projects as better than league average.
8. Cleveland Cavaliers
Average wins: 42.9
In part, Cleveland's projection suffers from the team's massive leap in the standings last season. Because player projections perform best based on three years of data, Darius Garland's poor rookie campaign still drags on his record after two seasons of rapid improvement. Additionally, Donovan Mitchell has a bottom-10 defensive rating in terms of defensive RAPM, helping explain why his addition doesn't have the expected impact on the Cavaliers' projected record.
9. New York Knicks
Average wins: 41.5
The Knicks are atop a crowded pack of contenders for spots in the play-in tournament after adding Jalen Brunson in free agency. Additionally, New York should benefit from the pull of regression following a dramatic defensive decline in Tom Thibodeau's second season at the helm.
10. Charlotte Hornets
Average wins: 40.8
A strong projection for third-year guard LaMelo Ball, an All-Star last season, helps keep Charlotte around .500 despite the likely loss of forward Miles Bridges. Bridges, who remains unsigned as a restricted free agent, is not part of this projection as he awaits a preliminary hearing after pleading not guilty to three felony domestic violence charges in July.
11. Washington Wizards
Average wins: 40.0
Upgrades at point guard with the additions of Monte Morris and Delon Wright and a full season of Kristaps Porzingis have Washington in the mix to return to the play-in tournament after reaching the playoffs through the inaugural edition in 2020-21.
12. Chicago Bulls
Average wins: 38.1
Despite starting 2021-22 atop the East at 26-10 before a second-half slide, Chicago is projected to finish worse than .500 this season. That stems in large part from the Bulls' minus-0.4 point differential, which would typically translate to 40 wins instead of the 46 games Chicago actually won. The Bulls were even worse in Lonzo Ball's absence, performing 1.5 points lower than average after accounting for opponent and location. With Ball's return from knee surgery uncertain (he is penciled in for 875 minutes), Chicago might need more late-game heroics from DeMar DeRozan to get on the right side of .500.
13. Indiana Pacers
Average wins: 38.0
Written off as rebuilding after trading Malcolm Brogdon and seeing an offer sheet to restricted free agent Deandre Ayton matched, the Pacers actually project as having enough talent on the roster to contend -- for now. Indiana could head toward the bottom by trading center Myles Turner and accelerating a youth movement.
14. Orlando Magic
Average wins: 30.6
Despite the addition of No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero, the Magic are probably looking at one more season in the high lottery before beginning to move back toward contention, led by a young core also highlighted by EuroBasket standout Franz Wagner.
15. Detroit Pistons
Average wins: 25.7
Don't take Detroit's league-worst projection as a referendum on the team's young core. Led by Cade Cunningham, the Pistons' recent first-round picks look promising, but No. 5 pick Jaden Ivey doesn't project as an efficient scorer as a rookie -- and the team's veterans don't rate as well as their reputations.