NBA trade season is officially back.
What does the deal between the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder, reported Monday by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, mean as both teams prepare for next week's NBA draft?
Per Wojnarowski, the Nuggets are sending veteran big man JaMychal Green and a protected first-round pick as early as 2027 to Oklahoma City in exchange for the No. 30 pick in this year's draft and two future second-rounders.
To facilitate the deal, Green must exercise his $8.2 million player option for the 2022-23 season. With Michael Porter Jr.'s extension kicking in next season, Denver projects to be in the luxury tax, so swapping out Green for a player on a modest rookie scale contract helps manage the Nuggets' bill.
Meanwhile, this trade is the latest example of the Thunder kicking draft picks down the road. Even after sending away a first-rounder, Oklahoma City still has three picks in the top 34 of this year's draft.
Let's break down the implications for both sides.
The deal:
Nuggets get:
2022 first-round pick (No. 30)
Two future second-round picks
Thunder get:
JaMychal Green
Protected 2027 first-round pick
Denver Nuggets: B
Frankly, this trade is an admission the Nuggets made a mistake by giving Green a player option as part of last season's contract paying him $8.2 million (plus $200K in unlikely incentives) both years.
Denver surely envisioned an all-Green frontcourt of JaMychal and newcomer Jeff Green playing the minutes MVP Nikola Jokic rested. That duo flopped. Per NBA Advanced Stats, the Greens were outscored by an unthinkable 21.8 points per 100 possessions in the 197 minutes they shared the court -- nearly all of them before Christmas Day.
In part because JaMychal Green's 3-point percentage slipped from 40% in 2020-21 (and 39.5% over the past three seasons combined) to a dismal 27%, Nuggets coach Michael Malone favored Jeff Green over JaMychal Green for minutes at power forward. As a result, JaMychal Green averaged just 16.2 MPG, his lowest playing time since his rookie season.
Since Jeff Green is under contract for a modest $4.5 million, JaMychal Green became an expensive luxury. Green picking up his player option would have put the Nuggets about $9 million over the projected tax line with 11 players under contract, including Denver's own first-round pick (No. 21 overall). Replacing him with the No. 30 pick saves the Nuggets about $6 million in 2022-23 salary and many multiples of that in tax payments.
It will be interesting to see whether Denver reinvests that savings elsewhere in the roster. As Wojnarowski noted, dealing Green without taking back a contract in return will create an $8.2 million trade exception for the Nuggets to potentially use in addition to their $6.4 million taxpayer midlevel exception.
If trading Green allows Denver to use the tax midlevel, the team could end up with almost identical salary but a player who better fits the roster and another first-round pick. In exchange, the Nuggets have sacrificed flexibility to use draft picks in future trades.
Already, Denver owed a lottery-protected first-round pick in 2023 to the Thunder and one two years after that pick conveys to the Orlando Magic. As a result, 2027 was the earliest first-rounder the Nuggets could have traded, and they can't actually guarantee Oklahoma City gets a first-round pick out of the deal because of the protections on the other picks. In theory, Denver could trade a 2029 first-round pick after this year's draft, but it will be difficult to add a significant piece to the roster by trading draft picks.
As a result, the pressure is on GM Calvin Booth -- now the Nuggets' lead decision-maker after president Tim Connelly left for a more lucrative offer from the Minnesota Timberwolves -- to nail this year's first-round picks and the replacement for Green to maximize Denver's chances of competing for a title in Jokic's prime.
Oklahoma City Thunder: B+
Oklahoma City was in an unusual position because of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's rookie extension, which kicks in July 1. After making only one trade leading up to the deadline, the Thunder had $32 million in unused cap space that carries over through June 30. As soon as Gilgeous-Alexander's extension kicks in, that space vaporizes, putting Oklahoma City in something of a "Brewster's Millions"-style race to spend it as quickly as possible.
In practice, using all $32 million of space would probably take the Thunder into the luxury tax in 2022-23, surely a nonstarter for a team that will only begin to build toward contention. But even after using $8.2 million of that space on Green, Oklahoma City can still take on several more contracts from other teams between now and the end of the month.
As for this deal specifically, it's interesting for a couple of reasons. First, there's the possibility of the Thunder moving Green in another trade. Although this deal clearly suggests Green isn't worth his $8.2 million salary, he's still a useful reserve -- particularly if his 3-point percentage improves to where it was before last season.
Oklahoma City could put Green on the Al Horford plan and try to rehab his value by the deadline. More likely, with the Thunder expected to draft a big man No. 2 overall, Green could be traded for a player on a worse contract this summer. He might be an interesting fit with the Utah Jazz as a more mobile backup 5, depending on what other, more dramatic changes the Jazz might make this offseason.
Second, there's the question of whether Oklahoma City got enough value here. Depending on the second-round picks the Thunder sends out in 2023 and 2024, a distant first-round pick for No. 30 this year and two second-rounders doesn't seem like a great return. That may be consistent with what we've seen in past deals to move up in the draft, in which Oklahoma City has been willing to overpay from a surplus of picks.
But, pending protections on the 2027 pick, the Thunder could win big betting against the Nuggets' long-term future. By 2027, Jokic will be 32 years old and Denver's current core could be prohibitively expensive with Jokic likely to sign a supermax extension and Jamal Murray due for a new contract. If Denver ends up a low-level playoff team or worse, Oklahoma City could get access to a quality draft pick just as the franchise hopes to hit contention with this year's No. 2 pick entering his prime.