With less than three weeks remaining in the regular season, we explore a championship charge from the Milwaukee Bucks, development from the non-Point God Phoenix Suns, a little bright spot in Madison Square Garden and a question about the popular "too little" taunt.
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, multitasking -- and uh oh, here come the Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks are 11-2 in their last 13, and one loss came without their two-time MVP.
And, yes, as I've been saying for months, the MVP is a three-person race between Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, and Nikola Jokic. I mean, Antetokounmpo is averaging almost 30-12-6 on 55% shooting. The number that should have rivals trembling is Antetokounmpo's 72% (and rising) mark at the line.
If he can carry that into the playoffs -- something he has mostly failed at before -- there is no answer anymore. He's getting 30. The only question becomes whether he's getting 40, and how many open 3s his teammates make.
Brook Lopez and Pat Connaughton look like themselves. Jevon Carter adds a new pressing peskiness on defense, and will push for playoff minutes if he continues to make 3s. Milwaukee is plus-10 per 100 possessions with their big three on the floor, and maybe more important, plus-7.2 when Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton play without Antetokounmpo. In high-leverage games, the Bucks can play every minute with at least two of those three. Milwaukee has been my pick to come out of the East since the Brooklyn situation went haywire in training camp. (They have stiff competition; Boston is getting scary.)
The combination of Antetokounmpo, Lopez, and playoff focus should stiffen a defense that has been unusually scattershot -- caught between identities, suffering some championship hangover.
Antetokounmpo remains a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Perhaps his defining highlight was his retreating block of a Deandre Ayton alley-oop late in Game 4 of last season's Finals -- a play on which he did two hard things at once: containing Devin Booker with the ball while keeping contact with Ayton.
That's not his only rare form of multitasking. Antetokounmpo is a master at going vertical without conceding rebounding position:
That is a delicate balance. Antetokounmpo's length and hops help; he doesn't have to leap with all his might, and his second jump is rapid-fire. But this also requires discipline, anticipation, and timing. Opponents have hit just 52% at the rim with Antetokounmpo nearby -- ninth among rotation players who challenge at least three such shots.
It feels like Antetokounmpo is everywhere because he almost is everywhere.
2. The nastiest, weirdest tag-team north of the border
Now entering the game, at a combined height of 13-feet, 5-inches ...
We need a wrestling-style nickname for the Precious Achiuwa-Chris Boucher tag team. They come off the bench (at least when Khem Birch starts) and just kinda wreck stuff as part of weirdo super-long lineups Toronto uses when Fred VanVleet rests.
What position do they play? Who cares! They're long, and bouncy, and have freedom to heave 3s or sprint from the arc to crash the offensive glass.
Achiuwa is close to the rim-running center archetype, but he's dabbling in 3s and ambitious off-the-bounce takes. Both he and Boucher switch a ton in Toronto's frenetic scheme; Achiuwa will sometimes draw star wings as his primary assignment. Both run the floor hard.
Boucher is ... a gigantic wing, maybe? Wings defend Boucher because he's skinny with zero post game. He's a hiding place, basically. But he outleaps those guys for offensive rebounds, whether he's spotting up or lurking in the dunker spot. Toronto inhales 38% of its misses when the Boucher-Achiuwa tandem plays -- the fourth-highest rate among 600-plus duos who have logged at least 500 minutes.
Boucher's scoring and shooting are down, but he's never played with such constant, focused frenzy. Only Matisse Thybulle has blocked more 3s over the last two seasons, and no one else is in their universe, per Second Spectrum. Opponents have hit 54% of shots at the rim with Boucher or Achiuwa nearby -- top-level marks.
Toronto uses its length to swarm the paint and fly out to shooters. Boucher and Achiuwa unnerve those shooters with simple inside-out rotations. Opponents are shooting horribly from everywhere in the Boucher-Achiuwa minutes, and that's not a coincidence.
Toronto's anti-positional strangeness scares some East rivals. They are unique, tough to scout. Thaddeus Young is finding his way, OG Anunoby is back to boost Toronto's shooting, and Pascal Siakam deserves real All-NBA consideration after a tough start.
3. Revel in Jose Alvarado
If you haven't enjoyed Alvarado -- super smart, in your jersey at all times -- set your schedule around the next New Orleans Pelicans game.
Look at this guy! Alvarado crouches and hides behind Trae Young to swipe this inbounds pass. Is it possible Kevin Huerter didn't see Alvarado -- that Alvarado manufactured a steal by concealing his very physical presence? He did it again Thursday night, skulking in from the coffin corner in a full-on crouch, leaping at Alex Caruso like an actor in some Halloween haunted house, and spooking Caruso into a traveling violation.
Alvarado is snagging 3.1 steals per 36 minutes -- tops overall. Alvarado -- undrafted, on a two-way contract -- has been a revelation at backup point guard, often outplaying Devonte' Graham. Alvarado is a shaky 3-point shooter, but he has done enough to hang in.
Alvarado pushes the Pels into turbo gear, and gets to the rim. He's a good passer. He rarely turns it over. Defenses duck screens against him, but Alvarado is cagey using re-screens to whittle forward:
He's shooting 55% from floater range, and 36% on corner 3s.
Alvarado is overtaxed as the No. 1 ball handler, but with CJ McCollum, Graham, Jonas Valanciunas, and Brandon Ingram, even the Zion Williamson-less Pels have enough scoring to divvy up the load. The Pels have blitzed opponents by 10.2 points per 100 possessions with Alvarado on the floor!
I'd be shocked if they don't convert him to a standard NBA contract soon.
4. Lauri Markkanen is missing something
Markkanen's four-year, $67 million deal feels like an early success story for the Cleveland Cavaliers; the Cavs are plus-7 per 100 possessions with the gigantour Markannen-Jarrett Allen-Evan Mobley trio. (Mobley is still the Rookie of the Year front-runner here.)
Markkanen is up to 35% from deep after a rough start, and nailed clutch 3s in recent wins. He moves his feet well enough to defend the opponent's least dangerous wings.
But how much of that triple-big dominance is due to Markkanen? Is he driving it, or just providing a nominal shooting threat while Allen and Mobley do the heavy lifting?
Markkanen kind of floats on offense. His post-ups, isolations, and drives have either plateaued or dropped, per Second Spectrum. Markkanen is setting 10 ball screens per 100 possessions, down from 22 last season.
It makes sense. Darius Garland controls the ball, with help from Caris LeVert. Allen and Mobley are more natural screen-setting hubs. Kevin Love is better at punishing switches.
That leaves Markkanen spotting up, and scrounging opportunities late in the shot clock. That's ... OK? Markkanen is still averaging 14.5 points -- in line with career numbers. But he's not some wing-stopper you play in a semi-limited offensive role (for big money) because of his defense. The Cavs already have that guy -- minus the reliable shooting -- in Isaac Okoro.
Cleveland could use more perimeter creation -- some snappier passing. LeVert brings secondary scoring, and he'll close some games with Garland. But he's a head-down, score-first type who (on bad nights) compromises Cleveland's spacing.
Markkanen has never averaged more than 1.8 assists per 36 minutes. Even in his role, that's too low. Wings usually defend Markkanen in Cleveland's triple-big lineups, and they are fast enough to shut off his pump-and-go game.
He is sometimes a beat late mapping the floor. He misses some open cutters:
Markkanen is fulfilling his role. At some point, the Cavs will need more.
5. Has Kelly Olynyk crossed some kind of awkwardness threshold?
Detroit took some heat for Olynyk's three-year, $36 million deal, but it was fine. The best gift you can provide young attackers is shooting around them, and Olynyk is a good stretch center.
Alas, the double-whammy of a knee injury and health and safety protocols robbed Olynyk of any chance to find rhythm around Cade Cunningham, Saddiq Bey, Jerami Grant, and Killian Hayes. The Cunningham/Bey/Grant/Olynyk quartet has logged only 63 minutes; Detroit is a monstrous plus-38 in those minutes.
The acquisition of Marvin Bagley III further clouds Olynyk's role. He and Bagley fit on offense, but defense is a struggle. Olynyk and Isaiah Stewart have shared the floor for only 26 minutes. Stewart has been switching more -- and looking pretty good doing it -- and Olynyk does not fit a switchy scheme.
If Detroit re-signs Bagley, contenders will sniff around Olynyk.
Olynyk has never relied on speed or leaping ability. He has almost weaponized his slowness in the style of Kyle Anderson; their moves unfold at such an unusual, languid pace, defenders accustomed to NBA speed don't know how to match their steps. Defenders get so far ahead, they in effect fall behind.
But Olynyk has looked slow and awkward even by his standards. He's shooting just 61% at the rim and 31% from floater range -- both near career lows -- and coughing it up more. He can teeter off-kilter:
Olynyk is only 30. Shooting ages well. Hopefully Olynyk's recent play -- including an efficient 16 points Wednesday -- portends some steadying.
6. Mikal Bridges, doing more
Chris Paul's absence allowed other Suns to stretch themselves -- a healthy development for a group that's starting to give off "team of destiny" whiffs. This has been most obvious with Deandre Ayton, reigniting his jumper and playing with more force.
Bridges' improvement is the sort you miss if you glance at stats or watch a few Phoenix games. It happens on the margins -- in the flow of Phoenix's half-court offense, and in transition, where Bridges is among the league's best marauding finishers. His volume of pick-and-rolls and isolations has actually fallen slightly from last season.
But watch those chances, and you see someone growing more comfortable creating offense:
That is a smooth, pogo-stick isolation over a good and even-sized defender in Harrison Barnes. A year ago, 22% of Bridges' shot attempts came from the midrange. That's up to 36% this season, with the bulk of the increase coming in that tricky territory between the foul line and the restricted area, per Cleaning The Glass. Bridges has hit 58% of those shots.
He's more confident running pick-and-roll, and reading defenses from a step ahead:
The typical pass there is to Jae Crowder in the right corner. Bridges is primed for that, but knows the defense might overreact that way -- unlocking a dish to Booker. Bridges' pick-and-roll volume has doubled since Paul's injury, to great results, per Second Spectrum.
For the season, the Suns have scored 1.22 points per possession when Bridges shoots out of a drive or dishes to a teammate who fires -- fourth among 255 players who have recorded at least 100 drives, per Second Spectrum. He has even feasted on his sparse post-up chances, most of which come via early seals in transition.
He has one of the lowest turnover rates in that sample. An underrated ingredient in elite low-usage role players -- and Bridges is still that, despite these strides -- is caring for the ball when you get your chances. Bridges has always checked that box. He is among only 13 players this season to log 1,000 minutes and post a sub-6.5% turnover rate.
Cameron Johnson has developed into a more well-rounded scorer. Booker improves every season. This is what the "Were the Suns a fluke?" analysis missed: outside of Paul and Crowder, their core players are young and rising.
7. Beware of bear claws in passing lanes
The Memphis Grizzlies are fourth in opponent turnover rate, but No. 1 in steals by a mile. A disproportionate number of turnovers they force are live-ball, and Memphis' offense feasts on those thefts.
Memphis is fourth in points per possession after steals, per Inpredictable. The Grizz may be the league's best transition team -- they're certainly the most eager -- and those open-court chances fortify their average-ish half-court offense.
The Grizz snatch most of those steals without gambling. They have a rare knack for intercepting inside-out kickout passes.
That is textbook weak-side defense by Desmond Bane. He's guarding a good shooter but doesn't stick to him. He slides to the edge of the paint, showing the threat of help without committing. He makes Tyrese Haliburton think, and when you impose uncertainty, you seize control of the possession.
Bane vibrates on his toes, ready to pounce. He pivots back to Brogdon in sync with Haliburton's pass.
Almost every Grizzly excels at splitting the difference this way. It's hard to hover in no man's land without conceding something. The risk is conceding everything. Memphis defenders somehow concede nothing. Jaren Jackson Jr. is really good for a guy his size at picking passes this way.
Here's Tyus Jones pulling it:
There is a school of thought that some Memphis strengths -- offensive rebounding, steals, fast breaks -- diminish in slower postseason games against top teams. That's probably true to some small degree. These Grizzlies may be a slightly better regular-season than playoff team, if only because of their youth.
But we might be overthinking this -- provided Ja Morant is healthy for the playoffs. Memphis is an awesome two-way team. Those strengths aren't merely the product of physical advantages, random opportunism, or luck. Generating these steals involves talent, smarts, good coaching. Those things don't disappear in the playoffs. Nor do transition chances or offensive rebounds. You think Steven Adams becomes less fearsome in May?
8. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's left hand
Gilgeous-Alexander's fourth season -- and last before his maximum extension kicks in -- should be considered a raging success. I don't really care that his shooting efficiency has declined; that's expected for any young-ish centerpiece on a rebuild this deep.
He's averaging a league-high 34 drives per 100 possessions. He has maintained decent efficiency on those drives, and a nice pass-or-shoot balance -- borderline miracles given the talent around him. He draws heaps of shooting fouls, and has turned the ball over on only 5.9% of drives -- 36th lowest among 255 players with at least 100 drives, per Second Spectrum.
Gilgeous-Alexander just gets wherever he wants. Nothing feels forced. His movements are jagged and arrhythmic -- hard to anticipate, harder to grasp. He seems to move fast and slow, and in every direction, at once. Tracking Gilgeous-Alexander is the NBA version of eating soup with a fork.
A big reason for Gilgeous-Alexander's unpredictability is his ease going left -- and not only on paint shots. He has an entire subset of lefty moves he can use in cramped spaces, from any spot:
That is a lefty in-and-out dribble leading into a one-handed lefty gather and scoop. Yowza. Gilgeous-Alexander could literally execute that entire sequence with his shooting hand tied behind his back.
At some point, the Thunder will trade extra picks for win-now players. I can't wait to see what Gilgeous-Alexander does then.
9. At least this nice thing is happening for the Knicks
There was heated debate at the trade deadline about the value of New York's young players. I was a tepid optimist. RJ Barrett is solid, bulldozing to the rim over the last two months. Obi Toppin is tougher to project, but his combination of speed and feel will amount to something with more opportunity.
Immanuel Quickley was a bit of a mystery box. Fans love him. He plays with irresistible bravado and fearlessness. He also operates the pick-and-roll with a staccato tempo that can be hard for teammates to gauge. Just when you think Quickley has daylight to probe further, he pulls up for an ultra-long floater; only about 10% of Quickley's shots have come at the rim, near the bottom for his position. He is sometimes shoot-first to a fault.
But New York has handed Quickley more responsibility with Kemba Walker and Derrick Rose gone, and he has perked up his playmaking. Over the last five weeks, Quickley is averaging 21 points, 7.4 rebounds (wow!), and 5.4 dimes per 36 minutes on 47% shooting -- including 43% from deep. He has a tidy 2.85-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio in that span.
He's passing more often out of the pick-and-roll, per Second Spectrum, and you can see him manipulating defenses:
The Portland Trail Blazers -- what's left of them -- scrunch Jericho Sims from both sides. Quickley wants to hit him anyway. He gazes at one of New York's shooters -- it's hard to tell which one -- and that eye fake freezes both help defenders. Boom.
Quickley would not have made that pass three months ago, and might not have even thought to try it.
For the season, the Knicks have scored 1.01 points per possession directly out of Quickley pick-and-rolls -- 49th among 215 guys who have run 100-plus such plays, per Second Spectrum.
I'm still not sure what Quickley is: backup or starter, point guard or off-guard, or some combination depending on team context. He's shooting below 40% for the second straight season.
But he's only 22, and his improved passing bodes well for him grasping a real role on a good team someday. The Knicks are plus-6.1 points per 100 possessions with Quickley on the floor, and minus-6.7 when he sits. Quickley may not even rank among the top five reasons for the maddening gap between New York's miserable starters and go-go bench, but he's doing something right.
10. Is "too little" jumping the shark?
I enjoy the classic "too little" taunt, executed by straightening one arm as low as it goes and flattening your hand, palm down -- as if you are shoving something to the floor, or patting a child on the head. (Remember when Pau Gasol petted Chris Paul's head? It did not go over well.)
Kevin Durant pinching his thumb and index finger together to metaphorically shrink Evan Fournier was a nice and very mean twist.
I like the scathing directness of the "rock the baby" taunt popularized by Russell Westbrook. There are stakes to it. Post that guy again and bonk one off the glass, and it's kind of embarrassing for you.
But everyone is doing this now, and I worry it's losing some bite. Guys are miming "too little" when there is almost no size advantage, or when the mismatch is so overwhelming it isn't close to a fair fight. LeBron hit Ish Smith with the "too little" last weekend. LeBron has nine inches and god knows how much weight on Smith; we already knew Smith was too little, and I'm not sure overpowering him is worth the boast.