With the first half of the NBA season coming to a close, this week we highlight a Time Lord-fueled Celtics ascent, leakiness from the Knicks, a quiet Kyrie Irving development to monitor and Oscar-level acting from two NBA All-Stars.
1. The Boston Celtics are, finally, who we thought they were
The most interesting thing in NBA defense over the last 20 games has been Ime Udoka's semi-radical decision to slot his shot-devouring center -- Robert Williams III, Lord of Time -- on wings away from the ball. The next-biggest Celtic -- Al Horford in Boston's starting five, sometimes Grant Williams, Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown in smaller looks -- takes the other team's main screen-setter, and switches everything.
The idea is to build a forcefield around the paint by switching up top, with Robert Williams looming along the baseline ready to pounce. A happy side effect is sewing confusion in offenses: Wait, where's Time Lord? Oh, there. So who's guarding our main screener? Are they just going to switch? Should we run our normal stuff anyway? Or divert our offense to attack Williams? But that would mean using a less dangerous screener, and Williams is really good at switching too! Oh, crap, there's 5 on the shot clock and Marcus Smart is six inches from my face.
Boston is about to overtake the Golden State Warriors for No. 1 in defensive efficiency. Their starting five has allowed a bonkers 88.8 points per 100 possessions -- easily the stingiest mark among lineups that have logged 100-plus minutes. Luck has helped; opponents have hit 29% on 3s against that group, and 34% against Boston overall. During Boston's current 9-1 stretch, opponents have shot 32% on midrangers. For the season, no team's opponents have underperformed their expected effective field goal percentage by a larger margin than Boston's, per Second Spectrum.
But Boston is driving this. Only the Warriors allow fewer shots at the rim. The Celtics have kicked their fouling habit. They are long and tenacious -- neck-and-neck with the weirdo Toronto Raptors as the best at unnerving shooters with flying closeouts. Opponents have made just 51% of shots at the rim with Williams nearby -- eighth lowest among 100-plus rotation guys who challenge at least three such shots per game. (One of the seven players above Williams is new Celtic Derrick White, who by most advanced metrics ranks among the league's 20 best defenders.)
Smaller groups with Time Lord as the only traditional big have been impenetrable; Boston's potential new closing lineup -- Smart, White, Brown, Tatum, Robert Williams -- might be a problem.
Opponents will concoct ways to attack Boston's unconventional scheme. (Brian Scalabrine and I brainstormed some on the Lowe Post podcast.) Boston will adjust.
In preseason, I labeled Boston a lock for a top-six spot -- with a chance at seizing No. 3. (Remember when everyone assumed Milwaukee and Brooklyn would go 1-2? Whoops.) That looked foolish for 30 games, but the optimism was about this defense.
The Celtics now have the East's best point differential. They are a threat to beat any conference rival in the playoffs, though a long shot against the Bucks. How the seeding shakes out will be pivotal.
2. The Miami Heat, coming into focus
The Heat sit atop the East even though their four best players -- Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry, and Tyler Herro -- have shared the floor for 59 minutes in 15 games. That's incredible.
Miami's core lineups have only scratched the surface. We know its defense will smother you when Butler, Lowry, Adebayo, and P.J. Tucker are on the court. The Heat can switch across every position, draining the shot clock until some poor sucker has to create something from nothing with a very mean defender sneering in his face. Just when you think you've adjusted to Miami's switchiness, the Heat will spring some zone, hit you with a trap, or pivot to conventional defense. They weaponize versatility.
The Heat will sink or swim in the playoffs based on their ability to score in the half court. Spacing gets cramped with Tucker, Butler, and Adebayo on the floor. (Tucker is shooting a league-best 45.5% on 3s, but almost all his attempts are from the corners; defenses ignore him above the arc, and only kind of guard him in the corners.) Miami is seventh in points per possession, but about league average in half-court efficiency, per Cleaning The Glass. Their half-court number falls into bottom-five range with the Tucker/Butler/Adebayo trio.
Miami makes up for blah spacing with supreme IQ and constant movement. At full throttle, they are a whir of cascading actions. Even Tucker is an active screen-and-dive playmaker. We have seen glimpses of what Miami's core groups can fashion in tight spaces:
That's a Lowry-Butler pick-and-roll with Adebayo and Tucker on the weak side, looming as screeners for Duncan Robinson. Lowry and Butler are nasty screeners -- for each other; for Robinson and Herro in off-ball actions; and for Adebayo in inverted pick-and-rolls. They can flare for jumpers, or slip into open space. The Robinson-Adebayo partnership is almost an offense unto itself, and Robinson and Herro -- like all great shooters -- are five-alarm screeners themselves. The Heat have a deep bag, and a rare ease with improvisation.
Switch the Lowry-Butler dance, and you risk Butler brutalizing a size mismatch. Miami's switching on defense engineers size mismatches that carry over to the offensive end after stops; Adebayo has been more aggressive sealing deep position against that kind of advantage.
Miami has run about 150 Lowry-Butler pick-and-rolls, per Second Spectrum. The version with Lowry screening has been particularly effective; Miami has scored about 1.3 points per possession when one of those two shoots out of that action, or dishes to a teammate who fires -- 10th among 613 pick-and-roll combinations with at least 50 reps.
Sleep on Miami at your peril.
3. Saddiq Bey, forcing it in the post
I'm all for young guys on bad teams stretching themselves. Bey was moderately effective on post-ups last season; Bey mashing point guards on switches should be in the Pistons' quiver when they play meaningful games again. Detroit did not have a ton of great options when Jerami Grant missed six weeks. (Related: Killian Hayes is shooting 36%, coming off the bench behind Cory Joseph, and barely playing alongside Cade Cunningham. Ouch.)
But Bey has forced it some:
Detroit has scored just 0.7 points per possession when Bey shoots from the post, or passes to a teammate who launches -- 104th among 108 guys with at least 20 post touches, per Second Spectrum. He has leaned shoot-first, with a low pass and assist rate on the block, according to tracking data. Bey is shooting 37% on long 2s, and a ghastly 28% between the restricted area and the foul line.
As Detroit gathers more talent, Bey's shot diet will normalize -- on 2s and 3s; Bey has hit 39% on catch-and-shoot 3s over two seasons, but just 27% on pull-ups. He's a solid, switchable defender. Bey still profiles as a good player on a winning team -- and maybe more.
4. Brandon Ingram's playmaking
Ingram's assists have only bumped from 4.9 last season to 5.3 now, but sometimes you know it when you see it: Ingram is making a (long-awaited) mini-leap as a playmaker. He's seeing things earlier and out-thinking defenses -- passing one step ahead of them, catching them leaning the wrong way in mid rotation:
A year ago, Ingram would have held the ball a beat longer -- maybe thinking score-first, maybe needing more time to map the floor -- before whipping those passes. Now he's getting off the ball sooner, and that extra half-second translates to a wider advantage for his receivers.
That's Ingram holding office hours on the right wing. He knows help is coming. He doesn't rush, or make the first pass -- the one the defense expects. He spots Herbert Jones (NOT ON HERB!) cutting down the middle, and downloads right away how that cut will suck in the defense -- leaving Garrett Temple open in the opposite corner.
Ingram releases the pass while the defense is still tilting toward him, and away from Temple. It's on time, and on target. Every game, Ingram slings more passes like this.
The next step is every-possession consistency, and meshing with CJ McCollum and (in theory, someday) Zion Williamson. Ingram has struggled a bit in McCollum's first handful of games in New Orleans -- typical when two ball-dominant perimeter guys pair up midseason. The Ingram/McCollum/Williamson trio has enough smarts and versatility to share the ball and amplify each other.
5. Khris Middleton's floater, on the way up
Middleton has one of the league's silkiest jumpers, with a release quick enough that he can sneak it over ultra-tight contests. It is hair-trigger fast and buttery soft -- a rare combination. It is basketball art.
Don't overlook his floater. Middleton takes a decent amount, and makes about half of them, per Cleaning The Glass. He flicks them up from both sides, from odd angles, and with unusual beats of timing:
Middleton rushes that out of his hands on the way up, so that it reaches its apex before Deandre Ayton reaches his. It melts into the backboard before dropping through.
The Middleton-Giannis Antetokounmpo pick-and-roll has become Milwaukee's go-to set piece, and Middleton's proficiency with this shot is a big reason it works. Against elite defenses, sometimes the floater is the best you get. It helped Milwaukee turn the tide against Brooklyn's drop-back defense in their seven-game series last season.
Antetokounmpo is setting about 25 ball screens per 100 possessions this season -- the highest mark of his career, per Second Spectrum. He has cracked 32 points in five of his last nine games, including a 44-point humiliation of the Los Angeles Lakers and a 50-piece against the Indiana Pacers. He and Joel Embiid are neck-and-neck for the scoring lead.
He has also eked past Embiid, into the No. 2 spot behind Nikola Jokic, in almost every advanced stat. He's on the verge of overtaking Jokic in Player Efficiency Rating, with a chance to finish with the highest figure ever.
The MVP is not a two-man race. Milwaukee's defense is springing leaks -- especially when they switch a ton -- but that's not on Antetokounmpo, who remains All-Defense-level.
6. New York's starters, springing leaks
The Knicks' starting lineup has been a disaster all season, and still somehow logged the fourth-most minutes among all five-man groups. Opponents have blitzed the Knicks' starters by 14 points per 100 possessions -- one of the dozen worst figures among all lineups with at least 100 minutes. The Knicks may as well start games down 10-0 and bring the subs in.
At some point -- probably 15 games ago -- Tom Thibodeau has to change something.
The backslide on defense is most painful. RJ Barrett is stout on the wing, and Mitchell Robinson is a deterrent at the basket. The other three starters -- Kemba Walker, Evan Fournier, and Julius Randle -- represent weak spots.
Walker's size is always an issue, and knee problems have sapped his mobility. Walker has trouble hitting the brakes on closeouts, and keeping drivers in front him.
Randle's regression is more disappointing. He played the best defense of his career last season -- hyper-alert, head on a swivel, helping inside without losing track of shooters. The timing of those rotations is out of whack now. Randle's defense has been hazy and half-hearted. He's too late helping inside, which means he's way too late pivoting back out to shooters:
Randle is still shifting toward the paint when LeBron James' pass hits Trevor Ariza's hands. Opponents have hit above expectations from deep against New York's starters, but too many looks have been open. Randle is also a frequent victim of backdoor cuts.
Randle's four-year, $117 million contract -- complete with player option! -- doesn't even kick in until next season. New York is four games out of the play-in, and 3-13 in its last 16 games after another fall-from-ahead embarrassment against the remains of the Nets.
Expect everything to be on the table for the Knicks in the summer.
7. Spencer Dinwiddie's float game
I get the shakes when Dinwiddie pulls up around the foul line. He's a wayward lob passer. He sometimes waits until the last second to decide between the alley-oop and the floater. Such purposeful hesitation can bait defenders into guessing wrong, but for Dinwiddie it often leads to desperate decisions as he descends.
He is prone to awkward, ultra-long floaters:
Dinwiddie has never hit better than 38% from floater range in any season, and he's jacking shots more than ever -- and getting to the rim at the lowest rate of his career, per Cleaning The Glass. Dinwiddie almost never takes longer 2s. That is generally considered healthy, but it may be bad for Dinwiddie. An 18-footer from a stable base is better than a flailing 14-foot floater.
The rim-phobic Mavs could use the old Dinwiddie; only the Phoenix Suns generate a lower share of attempts at the basket. Dinwiddie missed almost a year recovering from knee surgery. Maybe his burst will return soon.
The Mavs' trade deadline was about dumping Kristaps Porzingis. The players they got -- Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans -- were vehicles toward that end. But the Mavs will find roles for them, and both will play better in Dallas; they almost can't play worse.
It will be interesting to see how the Mavs use Dinwiddie, and how much he shares the floor with Luka Doncic. Dinwiddie has hit just 31% on 3s for his career, and the Mavs should surround Doncic with maximum shooting. Jalen Brunson is now a fixture as the second ball handler in the starting five.
But Dinwiddie has been serviceable -- around 37% most seasons -- on catch-and-shoot 3s, and peak Dinwiddie would do well slicing through alleys that open when Doncic punctures the defense and kicks to shooters.
8. Keep an eye on this Kyrie Irving thing
Lost in the noise about vaccination rules and mega-trades is a sort of important question: What team is Kyrie Irving on next season?
Irving has a $36 million player option for 2022-23. Will he pick it up? Does he want to be in Brooklyn? Would he ditch Kevin Durant after pulling Durant to the Nets -- and watching Durant become the only Brooklyn star to sign an extension?
Decline that option, and Irving hits unrestricted free agency. Even assuming vaccine rules ease, does any team have enough faith in Irving's availability to ink him to a guaranteed long-term deal? Part of the reason the Nets traded for the obviously very reliable James Harden is that Irving left the team midseason with no defined return date.
Would the Knicks dare another run at Irving, either by clearing space or executing the rare intra-city sign-and-trade? What do the Nets even want? Is it better for them if Irving opts in, kicking this dilemma a year? They could try to coax Irving into opting out and re-signing on a short-term deal -- and perhaps then retool around the Durant/Irving/Ben Simmons core by investigating what combinations of Joe Harris, Seth Curry, young guys, and newly acquired picks might fetch via trade.
Irving has mostly looked himself this season, with small orange-ish flag: He's not getting to the rim anymore. Only 15% of Irving's shots have come at the basket, a low number for his position and by far the lowest of his career, per Cleaning The Glass. (He's normally around 30%.)
Irving is one the most artful midair contortionists ever. The downside of maneuvering around contact is that Irving has never gotten to the line much. He's down to 3.8 free throws per 36 minutes, also a career low.
These drop-offs could be the product of Brooklyn's so-so spacing, or Irving ramping up into game condition -- or both. Regardless, it's something to monitor.
9. Jakob Poeltl does cool things
Here's one such cool thing:
Lots of teams script versions of this -- thickets of cross screens leading to a deep post-up. Most bigs follow the paces regardless of what the defense does. Poeltl spots a counter that is often there for bigs who read it early. LaMarcus Aldridge lunges over Doug McDermott's pick and toward the foul line, hoping to meet Poeltl on the other side. Poeltl spies that, and aborts the play; instead of crossing the paint, he fades for a lob.
Poeltl might be having the most under-the-radar really good season in the league: 13 points, 9 boards, and 3 dimes per game, and the usual airtight defense. A year ago, he was great on defense and maybe a liability on offense against the best teams. Now he's a two-way player. He's daring more of his funky push shots, from longer distances, and has hit a tidy 47% on floaters -- matching his (very bad) free throw percentage.
The Spurs are plus-5 per 100 possessions with Poeltl on the floor, and minus-4 when he sits. (They are plus-21 in the 327 minutes Poeltl has played without Dejounte Murray.)
Poeltl's three-year, $26 million deal expires after next season. He's eligible for an extension in July, but it would top out at four years, $58 million. (The Spurs cannot use cap room to increase Poeltl's salary next season and extend off of that number; such renegotiate-and-extends are not allowed atop contracts three years or shorter.)
10. Do they teach elite basketball acting at Kentucky?
I love theatricality designed to sell decoy actions and trick defenses. Check out Karl-Anthony Towns hitting the Utah Jazz with neck spasm head fakes -- an attempt to convince the defense he's about to stop to screen for Jaylen Nowell before he actually does so:
Eagle-eyed viewers will catch Towns doing this now and then, often for Anthony Edwards. Towns is all-in. I'm a little worried he's going to miss games with neck soreness.
Not to be outdone: Devin Booker, on the left sideline below, play-acting as if he might cut either direction around Cameron Johnson's off-ball pick:
Look at Booker bouncing on his toes! He's like a caricature of some hyperactive football player gearing up for the snap! That is some Lee Strasberg-level Method acting.
It's not inconsequential, either. Booker's job here is to hold the attention of both defenders on his side so that neither peeks at the real action -- JaVale McGee's rumble to the basket. Booker's over-the-top performance enraptures his audience. Take a bow.