Which NBA teams have been hit the hardest by the league's COVID-19 health and safety protocols?
With nearly all the NBA's players vaccinated and a majority boosted, the league has continued playing through widespread COVID-19 transmission across its rosters thanks to an influx of players signed to 10-day hardship contracts. More than 100 players in total have signed using hardship exceptions, helping make up for nearly 250 players who have entered health and safety protocols over the past three weeks.
That approach has minimized disruptions to the NBA schedule at the expense of disruptions to the rosters available from night to night. Those absences haven't hit every team equally, as some have had to play with makeshift squads while a few others have experienced relatively modest impact to date.
Now that the worst of the NBA's omicron-related outbreak appears to be past -- the number of players in health and safety protocols dropped below triple digits Sunday for the first time since Dec. 18 -- we can start to take stock of the impact so far.
Note: Let's quickly explain the methodology here. Based on games players have missed either in protocols or due to subsequent reconditioning through Sunday, "minutes lost" is calculated using players' minutes per game multiplied by games missed. Wins above replacement player lost (WARP lost) is calculated using players' per-game rating in my player metric multiplied by games missed. One caveat: Players already sidelined by injury, such as Orlando Magic guard Markelle Fultz, don't count as lost if they are in the protocols because they would be unavailable either way.
Most value lost
Cleveland Cavaliers
1,110 minutes lost (3rd in NBA)
2.6 WARP lost (1st in NBA)
In yet another indication of their remarkable season, the Cavaliers are fifth in the East despite losing as much manpower to the health and safety protocols as any other team.
The Cavaliers dealt with the spread of COVID-19 back in November before the omicron-related rise, as forwards Kevin Love and Lauri Markkanen missed extended periods of eight and nine games, respectively. More recently, Cleveland has seen three key starters (center Jarrett Allen, point guard Darius Garland and Rookie of the Year contender Evan Mobley) miss multiple games.
Prior to Monday's deal for Rajon Rondo, the Cavaliers were particularly short-handed at point guard with Garland and backup Ricky Rubio (who suffered an ACL tear last week) both unavailable. Yet Cleveland still beat an Indiana Pacers team without its starting backcourt on Sunday.
Philadelphia 76ers
1,135 minutes lost (2nd)
2.6 WARP lost (2nd)
Like the Cavaliers, the Sixers dealt with early spread that cost them one of the league's top players. Joel Embiid missed nine games after testing positive in early November, an absence that overlapped with those for starting forward Tobias Harris (six games), Matisse Thybulle (seven) and reserve guard Isaiah Joe (five).
Alas, Philadelphia continues to lose players to the protocols. Not long after Andre Drummond, Danny Green and Shake Milton returned, the Sixers placed Thybulle back in protocols along with starting point guard Tyrese Maxey on Monday.
Milwaukee Bucks
739 minutes lost (12th)
2.1 WARP lost (3rd)
As compared to the 76ers and Cavaliers, the Bucks haven't experienced as widespread an outbreak. Just seven total Milwaukee players have entered the protocols, a total that puts them on the low side. However, two of them were two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo (for five games) and All-Star Khris Middleton (for eight back in November), which were costly absences for the Bucks.
Minnesota Timberwolves
870 minutes lost (7th)
1.7 WARP lost (4th)
The Timberwolves saw their leading scorers enter protocols one after another in December: Anthony Edwards on Dec. 17, Karl-Anthony Towns six days later and D'Angelo Russell on Dec. 27. The seven other Minnesota players to miss time in the protocols have all returned, including Edwards -- Russell and Towns sat out Monday night but are expected to rejoin the team when the Timberwolves head home after a trip to Los Angeles.
Chicago Bulls
1,182 minutes lost (1st)
1.6 WARP lost (5th)
The first team to see a game postponed because it didn't have enough players available, the Bulls benefited from that decision to a point. Stars DeMar DeRozan (three games) and Zach LaVine (two) had relatively brief absences because of the timing of that postponed game and another against the Toronto Raptors because the Raptors were unable to play. Still, Chicago has lost more minutes than any other team due to the protocols and ranks fifth in WARP lost.
Charlotte Hornets
867 minutes lost (8th)
1.5 WARP lost (6th)
Yet another team that has dealt with spread on the roster multiple times, the Hornets first lost a group including star guard LaMelo Ball and backcourt-mate Terry Rozier in early December -- remarkably, going 3-3 in the games without Ball. More recently, Charlotte has played without starter Miles Bridges for a pair of games and center P.J. Washington for three.
Brooklyn Nets
827 minutes lost (9th)
1.5 WARP lost (7th)
As with the Bulls, the Nets saw the impact of their COVID-19 spread mitigated by postponed games. Because Brooklyn went a full week without playing, the absences of stars Kevin Durant and James Harden (three games apiece) never overlapped, helping the Nets stay afloat despite going deep into the bench to find contributors like rookies David Duke Jr. and Kessler Edwards.
Atlanta Hawks
1,074 minutes lost (4th)
1.4 WARP lost (8th)
With 16 different players entering protocols so far, the Hawks are tied for the highest total this season with the Bulls. They rank somewhat lower in WARP lost because star Trae Young was able to return after just three games. Atlanta's more extended absences, including wings Danilo Gallinari and Kevin Huerter (six games apiece), were by players who have been less effective this season.
Dallas Mavericks
886 minutes lost (6th)
1.4 WARP lost (9th)
The Mavericks faced the absurdity of seeing a series of point guards land in the protocols. Brandon Knight, filling in on a hardship contract with Trey Burke and Luka Doncic unavailable, was sidelined himself. So Dallas signed Isaiah Thomas, only to see Thomas enter the protocols after a single game with the team. The Mavericks will continue to feel the effects with Kristaps Porzingis entering protocols on Monday.
Boston Celtics
957 minutes lost (5th)
1.2 WARP lost (10th)
Some degree of Boston's uneven December can be attributed to players being unavailable. Starters Al Horford and Jayson Tatum were both sidelined late in December, as were sixth man Dennis Schroder and a number of reserves. Tatum's four games missed are on the relatively high side for a player following changes to the league's policy for testing out of protocols, although the Celtics got an impressive win over the Phoenix Suns on New Year's Eve without him.
Other teams forced to rely heavily on hardship contracts
Intriguingly, the leaderboard for value lost in the protocols doesn't necessarily match up with the teams that have given the most minutes to players on hardship contracts. There are a couple of reasons for that.
First, the above list focuses more on stars, whereas even role players missing time right now can be an issue because replacements are increasingly hard to find. Collectively, players signed to hardship contracts have performed about 12.5% worse than my typical estimate of replacement level, which includes any player signed to a minimum-salary deal as a free agent.
Second, this doesn't account for existing injuries. The Magic sit at the middle of the Venn diagram of those two factors. With four players (Fultz, Michael Carter-Williams, Jonathan Isaac and E'Twaun Moore) yet to play this season due to injury and a fifth (Jalen Suggs) sidelined since November, the Magic had little depth to spare. Orlando also chose to promote from its G League affiliate in Lakeland rather than search for the best players available.
The result is that the Magic have given nearly twice as many minutes to players on hardship contracts (635) as any other team and have seen them collectively rate nearly a win worse than replacement.
The Detroit Pistons have found themselves in a similar predicament, as have -- surprisingly -- the Los Angeles Lakers. Although the Lakers rank just 10th in minutes lost to the protocols and 20th in WARP, through Sunday they'd given the third-most minutes to players on hardship contracts behind Orlando and Detroit. The majority of those went to Stanley Johnson, who looks to stick around on a regular NBA contract following the expiration of his hardship deal.
Then there are the Denver Nuggets, who rank sixth in hardship minutes despite being in the bottom six in minutes lost to the protocols through Sunday. (Since Denver recently had multiple players enter, the Nuggets' total is likely to increase.) That's simply because Davon Reed has performed so well on a series of 10-day deals, producing the most WARP of any hardship player to date. He's another strong candidate to sign a longer-term deal soon.
Teams with limited impact
With COVID-19 cases surging across the country, the Utah Jazz had been the only team not to see a player enter the health and safety protocols until Tuesday, when ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported that Joe Ingles became the first. The good health has been a factor in the Jazz posting the NBA's second-best point differential and third-best record thus far.
Conversely, losing the league's second-lowest total number of games to players in the protocols hasn't done much to benefit the New Orleans Pelicans, who continue to languish near the bottom of the West standings.