Can the Cleveland Cavaliers' surprisingly strong start to 2021-22 survive another season-ending injury to a key guard after Ricky Rubio was diagnosed with an ACL tear?
Cleveland's 20-14 record, good for fifth in the Eastern Conference, has come largely without starting guard Collin Sexton. Sexton suffered a meniscus tear in his left knee early in November and opted for a meniscus repair, knocking him out the remainder of the season.
In Sexton's absence, Rubio had only become more important to the Cavaliers. Added in a draft-day trade, Rubio was averaging 13.1 points per game -- decimal points off his career high -- as well as 6.6 assists per game while both backing up starting point guard Darius Garland and playing alongside him in some of Cleveland's strongest units.
With Garland currently subject to health and safety protocols, the Cavaliers are momentarily out all three of their top guards. Garland will be back before long, but Rubio joins Sexton on the sidelines for the remainder of the season.
What will that mean for Cleveland's attempts to reach the playoffs for the first time since LeBron James' departure in 2018? How about for Rubio's future headed into unrestricted free agency? Let's break it down.
Why Rubio was key to Cleveland's strong second unit
As well as Rubio has been playing, Cavaliers coach J.B. Bickerstaff has rarely started him alongside Garland. Of Rubio's six starts this season, including Tuesday when he suffered the injury, three have come in place of Garland and just three with him.
Keeping Rubio in a reserve role allowed him to anchor a surprisingly effective Cleveland second unit that reunited him with former Minnesota Timberwolves teammate Kevin Love. After Garland (plus-10.7 points per 100 possessions), Love (plus-9.6) and Rubio (plus-9.1) have the next-best net ratings on the Cavaliers this season, according to NBA Advanced Stats.
When Garland and Rubio have teamed up, Cleveland has been at its best. Such backcourts have a plus-16.1 net rating, which Matt Williams of ESPN Stats & Information notes is best among lineups with at least 500 minutes together.
None of this is to say the Cavaliers can't succeed without Rubio. After all, their typical starting lineup of Garland with Jarrett Allen, Lauri Markkanen, Evan Mobley and Isaac Okoro has outscored opponents by 15.2 points per 100 possessions. The challenge for Bickerstaff will be finding a way to make sure other lineups remain effective without Rubio.
How Cleveland can replace Rubio's impact
Keeping either Garland or Rubio on the court as a reliable playmaker has been a luxury for Bickerstaff this season. As a result, it's slightly challenging to predict how the Cavaliers will adjust -- we simply haven't seen much of them without either point guard. Add in Sexton's minutes early in the season, and Cleveland has played just 65 possessions outside garbage time with none of the three guards on the court, per Cleaning the Glass lineup data.
Logically, Kevin Pangos will step up to fill many of those minutes. The Cavaliers signed the Gonzaga product this offseason as point guard insurance after Pangos spent the past six seasons starring overseas. He's played just 82 minutes thus far, meaning we don't yet have a good sense of how Pangos' game will translate to the NBA. He profiles as a better outside shooter than Rubio, having made 41% of his 3-point attempts in 140 career EuroLeague games, but a significant downgrade defensively.
Until Garland returns, Cleveland will have to find other ballhandlers to help fill out 48 minutes at the point. The Cavaliers signed guard Malik Newman from their G-League affiliate, the Cleveland Charge, on Wednesday. However, Newman is more of a combo guard than a primary playmaker. On Tuesday night, Cleveland finished the game with Denzel Valentine as a de facto point guard. That lineup yielded some ugly half-court possessions as the New Orleans Pelicans held off the Cavaliers to win 108-104 after Rubio was helped off the court.
It's unlikely we'll see as much action for dual-ballhandler lineups with Garland and Pangos, because both players are undersized defending against wings. As a result, Rubio's absence will also open up more minutes at the shooting guard spot for Valentine to battle over with Cedi Osman and Dylan Windler.
Down the road, Cleveland will surely explore the trade market. As ESPN's Bobby Marks pointed out on Twitter, the $8.9 million disabled player exception the Cavaliers can apply for might not add much purchasing power, because the team is barely more than $3 million below the luxury-tax line. (It would still potentially be useful to generate a new trade exception that could be saved for the next season.)
Barring a bigger deal for Ben Simmons, Cleveland will most likely be looking at Rubio and Sexton as possible matching salary in a trade. Both players are in the final year of their contracts and could be headed elsewhere as free agents in the offseason.
Poor timing for Rubio's injury
At age 31, Rubio was probably looking at his last big payday in free agency given his strong play so far in 2021-22. This was twice in three years that Rubio has helped a young team take a positive step in its development, having started at point guard for the Phoenix Suns as they went 8-0 in the bubble before being traded as part of their deal for Chris Paul.
Now, there are questions about both Rubio's availability and his effectiveness going forward. It's best now to think of an ACL tear as a 12-month injury at best; no player has returned from a complete ACL tear in less than 11 months since J.J. Hickson in 2014. That likely rules out Rubio for the first couple months of the 2022-23 season.
Sadly, this is Rubio's second time tearing the ACL in his left knee, putting him in a small cohort of NBA players to suffer the same injury to the same knee multiple times. Others known to have done it are Danny Manning (who also had his opposite ACL tear), Jabari Parker and Michael Redd. This time around, the rehab may be more challenging for Rubio because of his age. He was just 21 when he previously tore the ACL during his rookie season with the Timberwolves.
If Rubio wants to stay with the Cavaliers, an extension could offer more security than taking his chances in free agency. Rubio will be eligible to extend his contract up through July 1, and Cleveland might also benefit from more certainty at guard after being unable to come to terms with Sexton on an extension to avoid restricted free agency.
Alternatively, if Rubio expresses a desire to continue his career elsewhere, the Cavaliers will have to think hard about moving him by the deadline as an expiring contract. Rubio's salary would give Cleveland plenty of spending power, and the team may not be able to afford two roster spots on players who are no longer able to contribute due to injuries.
As well as the Cavaliers have played thus far -- their plus-6.2 point differential is tops in the East despite a more difficult schedule than the rest of the regular season -- they haven't built up much of a cushion in the standings. Cleveland is just two games up on the Philadelphia 76ers, who are sixth, and 2.5 games out of the play-in tournament.
Without a trade, a spot in the play-in tournament might be the most likely outcome for the Cavaliers. They were already due to experience some regression in opponent 3-point shooting (33%, third-lowest in the NBA) the rest of the way and now have little margin for error with additional injuries to the backcourt.
But reaching the play-in tournament would be a tremendous accomplishment for a Cleveland team that has nearly already matched last year's total of 22 wins in 72 games, and would give the Cavaliers a chance to win their way back in the playoffs. Still, before Rubio's injury, Cleveland fans were understandably dreaming of bigger things in store this season.