Will the Cleveland Cavaliers' fast start withstand injuries to multiple starters?
The Cavaliers announced Tuesday that fast-starting rookie Evan Mobley will miss the next two to four weeks with a ligament sprain in his right elbow. And on Friday, they announced that guard Collin Sexton underwent season-ending surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee, which had sidelined him since Nov. 7.
In years past, such injuries might not have been a concern in the standings as Cleveland rebuilt through the draft. That's changed early this season, however, as the Cavaliers are a surprising eighth in the Eastern Conference standings at 9-8. Already, Cleveland is above-.500 deeper into the season than at any point since LeBron James' departure for the Los Angeles Lakers in the summer of 2018. (Last year's Cavaliers started 8-7 before fading.)
Although Mobley should be back at some point in December, the Cavaliers won't get Sexton back at all, testing their perimeter depth. Let's take a look at how Cleveland replaces Mobley and Sexton and what it means to the Cavaliers' hopes of returning to the playoffs ahead of schedule.
Sexton takes conservative approach to meniscus surgery
There are a handful of possible outcomes for players like Sexton with meniscus tears. Occasionally, a small tear can be treated with rest and rehab, as was the case with Philadelphia 76ers star Joel Embiid in last season's playoffs. Embiid returned to play through the injury within a week.
Much more commonly, surgery is required. That's where there are two paths with very different timetables. A meniscectomy removes the injured part of the meniscus, allowing a player to come back within weeks, not months.
Depending on the location and size of the tear, it's also possible to undergo a meniscus repair as Sexton did. That can be better long-term because it preserves the meniscus, but the recovery process is much longer. James Wiseman, the No. 2 overall pick of the 2020 draft, underwent a meniscus repair in April and still hasn't been cleared to return to the court. Hence Sexton's surgery is season-ending.
Looming over Sexton's decision was his impending restricted free agency. Sexton and the Cavaliers were unable to agree to an extension to his rookie contract before the Oct. 18 deadline, making him a free agent next summer. Sexton will be coming off playing just 11 games this season, during which his scoring average fell to a career-low 16.0 PPG because of Cleveland's improved depth. But the repair leaves him better positioned to maintain his value long-term.
Rubio becomes critical without Sexton
Because starting wing Isaac Okoro returned from a hamstring strain just as Sexton went out of the lineup, Cleveland coach J.B. Bickerstaff was able to swap him in without dramatically changing the rest of his rotation. However, Sexton's absence has increased the importance of newcomer Ricky Rubio, who has played well in his first season with the Cavaliers.
Despite coming off the bench, Rubio has averaged the second-most minutes on the team (32.6) over the four games since Sexton went out of the lineup. Beforehand, Cleveland's best lineups tended to feature Rubio alongside fellow point guard Darius Garland, a combination that's worked well by offering more playmaking and size in the backcourt than the Cavaliers' duo of Garland and Sexton.
The biggest concern for Cleveland is: What happens if another perimeter contributor goes down? The Cavaliers have also gotten a bounce-back season from reserve wing Cedi Osman, who's making a career-best 41% of his 3s after hitting just 31% in a disappointing 2020-21 campaign. Get beyond that group, and Cleveland is looking at rotation minutes for Dylan Windler (who's shot well in limited playing time), Lamar Stevens or newcomer Denzel Valentine.
Mobley's skills are more difficult to replace
It's rare that an injury to a rookie affects a team's record, but Mobley has already proven an exception as the No. 3 overall pick. He's quickly established himself as one of the league's most versatile defenders, capable of defending on the perimeter against stretch 4s or on switches, as well as being a potent rim protector when stationed in the paint.
It's that defensive component where Mobley will be most difficult to replace. He's also averaging 14.6 points and 2.5 assists per game on offense, but the Cavaliers can get similar production from the high post from Kevin Love and Lauri Markkanen. Love has returned the past two games after a stint in the NBA's health and safety protocols, while Markkanen has cleared the protocols and is working on rebuilding his conditioning.
Most likely, Markkanen will eventually fill Mobley's spot in the starting lineup at power forward after the two players started together in big frontcourts to begin the season. That leaves Love coming off the bench at both frontcourt spots. Although neither has shot the ball well yet this season (Markkanen made 28% of his 3s in eight games, while Love is at 26% and 47% on 2s), they provide more floor spacing than Mobley via their reputations as shooters.
Defensively, neither Markkanen nor Love offers the same kind of rim protection as Mobley. Opponents had made just 52% of their attempts within five feet with Mobley as a primary defender, per Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats, putting him 10th among players who have defended at least 10 such shot attempts. By contrast, opponents have shot 60% against Love and 67% against Markkanen from that range. Last season, those marks were 73% for Love and 60% for Markkanen.
That weakness in terms of rim protection will be magnified when starting center Jarrett Allen is off the court, likely leaving Love at center. Thus far, Bickerstaff has managed his rotation to keep either Allen or Mobley on the floor at nearly all times. Per my analysis of lineup data from NBA Advanced Stats, one or the other played center for 668 of the team's 720 minutes before Mobley's injuries.
The outlook in Cleveland
Mobley's absence comes at a tough time for the Cavaliers, who have lost their last three games and recently entered a difficult stretch of their schedule. Over the next two weeks, Cleveland plays the Brooklyn Nets, Dallas Mavericks, Miami Heat and Phoenix Suns -- a stretch only briefly interrupted by a home game against the lottery-bound Orlando Magic.
The week after that brings matchups with the Utah Jazz and defending champion Milwaukee Bucks ahead of one against the Chicago Bulls before the schedule lightens. With or without Mobley and Sexton, this period was likely to serve as a reality check for the Cavaliers.
In part because other East teams have also started better than expected, Cleveland's playoff odds (6% after accounting for the injuries) haven't budged much in FiveThirtyEight's projections. In a best-case scenario, the Cavaliers can survive the next couple of weeks with their record still around .500, and then resume playing better than that once Mobley is back in the lineup. That's a lot to ask of a team with low expectations entering the season.