Just last week, the new-look Los Angeles Lakers appeared to have things on track. They'd won five of six games after starting the season 0-2, a stretch that was capped off by a win in which the star trio of LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook combined for 84 points, while Carmelo Anthony chipped in 15 off the bench. But things quickly took a turn for the worse; James missed the next two games, both losses, and the Lakers are now .500 and tied for eighth in the West.
This team is chock full of superstar talent and has championship aspirations, but it's unclear if they can reach that level. Their minus-1.2 scoring differential ranks 18th in the league and that's come against the second-easiest schedule in the NBA so far this season.
It remains to be seen how well James, Davis, Westbrook and the supporting cast will mesh on the court, and if they have enough to compete at the highest levels when the schedule gets tougher. With that in mind, let's look at some early season data and go through four big questions that will help determine whether this Lakers' season will end in glory or in a high-profile disappointment.
1. Can they stay healthy?
James arrived in Los Angeles in 2018 having reached the Finals in each of the eight previous seasons. That incredible streak was snapped during his first season as a Laker in part because of the Christmas Day groin injury that cost him more than a month of the season. After James and the Lakers won a title in the bubble in 2020, the injury bug returned when Solomon Hill rolled into James' ankle, undermining last season's title defense.
King James was once the iron man of pro basketball, but that is no longer the case. An ankle injury already sidelined him for two games this season and he's missed two more with an abdominal strain that will keep him out until at least Friday. While James has been relatively healthy throughout his career, Davis has a lengthy injury history, including a strained groin that hampered him during the Lakers' first-round playoff loss to the Phoenix Suns in June.
The numbers are clear: if James and Davis are healthy, this squad can be trouble for the rest of the league. If they are not, the Lakers are headed for mediocrity.
Since 2019-20, the Lakers are 85-32 in games when both Davis and James play. That's a winning percentage of 73%; for comparison, the Milwaukee Bucks, the NBA's best regular-season team in that span, have won 69% of their games. However, in games when James has played without Davis, that drops to 59%. In games where Davis has played without James it drops to 38%.
The Lakers have looked like contenders when they have both James and Davis available, and they are much less scary when they don't. The best ability in the NBA is availability, which is especially true for James and Davis this season.
2. Can they play great defense?
Frank Vogel has done a great job of turning the league's glitziest franchise into one of the league's top defenses. The Lakers have been a top-10 defense in each of the past two seasons, which is important because 19 of the NBA's past 20 championship teams have ranked in the top 10 in defensive rating during those title seasons, and the lone exception, the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors, ranked 11th. When the Lakers won it all in 2019-20, they ranked third in the league in defense and eighth in points per game allowed in the paint.
But after shipping out Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Kyle Kuzma in the deal to acquire Westbrook and adding Anthony to the bench, this team is facing fair questions about whether it can get stops like that title team did. The early returns aren't great. Through their first 10 games, the Lakers rank 14th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and they're allowing 50.6 points in the paint per game, third-worst in the league.
Vogel has already made some adjustments. Rajon Rondo fell out of the rotation before James' latest injury forced his return; the team's defensive rating when he and Westbrook shared the floor is a ghastly 129.6. In the Lakers' last two wins, DeAndre Jordan was moved to the bench, with Davis starting at center, while Dwight Howard didn't play. Given that those were against a Houston team that is 1-8, it's too early to declare the moves a success, but the Lakers did post a defensive rating of 97.1 in the back-to-back wins.
There is still plenty of time for the Lakers to get better on the defensive end, but their overall defense -- and particularly their paint defense -- are key markers to watch. If they can coalesce into another top-10 defense and protect the rim, they will be contenders. If they can't, they won't.
3. Will they have enough shooting?
The Lakers are loaded with offensive talent, but the one thing that James, Westbrook and Davis have in common is that as scorers they have traditionally all been at their best attacking the rim. For years, all three of these superstars have feasted in the paint, but not really scared opponents outside of it.
That is changing for James, who has developed a reliable jumper and is leaning on it more than ever in Year 19. Through the six games he's played this season, James is taking 40.2% of his shots from beyond the 3-point arc. That rate is up over five points from just last season and more than double what it was just six years ago when fewer than 20% of his shots were triples.
It's been a remarkable inside-out metamorphosis that is helping a player who ferociously dominated the paint for over a decade extend his career deep into his late 30s. But James' new perimeter game will also help this particular Lakers' rotation, which is short on outside shooters.
Dating to the 2018-19 season, 69 NBA players have tried at least 1,000 jump shots. Among that large group, Westbrook and Davis have been the two least efficient shot-makers, per Second Spectrum. As the season progresses, defenses will pack the paint and dare this team to beat them with jump shots, because aside from Kent Bazemore and the red hot Anthony, who has made nearly half of his 3s so far, the Lakers' rotation doesn't include consistent shooting threats.
To his credit, Anthony has thrived early this season and provided the team with much-needed spacing. But without Anthony on the floor, the Lakers haven't scored well at all. In the 208 minutes he's been on the bench this year the team has a woeful offensive rating of just 98.7, largely because of inefficient shooting. The Lakers have hit just 34% of their jumpers in those minutes.
Anthony's emergence as this team's key spacing agent is a cool early-season story. Last season, Anthony shot 41% on 3-pointers, the highest rate of his career. This season, that percentage is 49.2%, which ranks first in the league among the 38 players that have tried at least 60 3s this season.
Anthony has made more catch-and-shoot 3s than any other player this season, but can this continue? I'm skeptical, at least at these current rates. In a world where Anthony comes back to earth, gets hurt or exploited on defense, the biggest question for this offense will be if they can make enough outside shots to open up the paint for James, Davis and Westbrook to attack the rim.
4. Will other Western Contenders emerge?
The Lakers don't play in a vacuum, and ultimately their season outcome hinges on the fates of other teams too, especially those out West. The balance of power in the NBA has migrated East. Not only are the Bucks now the defending champs, but teams like Brooklyn and Miami are legit contenders to win it all too. Eight Eastern Conference teams have already won at least six games, compared to just three out West. That's in part because the Western field has been decimated by injuries, as stars such as Kawhi Leonard, Jamal Murray and Klay Thompson are still not playing.
It's too soon to tell, but the Lakers remain the betting favorites out West for good reason. They are loaded with talent and remain relatively healthy, and the path to the Finals might just break right for them.
Oh, and they still have LeBron James.