Is Memphis Grizzlies point guard Ja Morant making the leap?
Two years after winning Rookie of the Year, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2019 NBA draft leads the league with 35.0 points per game through his first three games of the 2021-22 season. He has already scored at least 37 points in a game as many times (two) as in his first two NBA campaigns combined.
Morant's Grizzlies, expected to be back in the play-in tournament mix after a future-focused offseason by way of trades and draft picks, won their first two games before a three-point loss to the Los Angeles Lakers in the second game of a back-to-back over the weekend at Staples Center.
Since Morant exploded on the scene as a 20-year-old rookie who succeeded at a position where most newcomers struggle, stardom has looked more like a question of when rather than if.
How has Morant ascended to this level already, and is it sustainable? And what does Morant's performance tell us about his potential going forward? Let's break down his hot start ahead of the Grizzlies' showdown Wednesday night against the Portland Trail Blazers (10 p.m. ET, ESPN).
The reasons behind Morant's scoring spree
Morant's impressive early showing stands in stark contrast to last season, when the Grizzlies were the NBA's only team without a 20-PPG scorer on their roster. (The Orlando Magic didn't finish with one after trading away leading scorer Nikola Vucevic at the trade deadline.) At 19.1 PPG, Morant was one of three Memphis players to average between 17 and 20 points, tied for the most on any team.
The Grizzlies have been without both of their other leading scorers from 2020-21. Memphis traded starting center Jonas Valanciunas (17.2 PPG) to the New Orleans Pelicans over the summer, while wing Dillon Brooks (17.1) has yet to play this season due to a left hand fracture. Although the current starting wing duo of Desmond Bane (19.3 PPG) and De'Anthony Melton (18.3 PPG) has stepped up in scoring, replacing Valanciunas with low-usage Steven Adams has centered the Grizzlies' offense far more around Morant.
After finishing 26% of Memphis' plays with a shot, a trip to the free throw line or a turnover as a rookie and 27% last season, Morant has seen his usage rate spike to 35% so far in 2021-22 -- second highest in the NBA behind Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal, last season's runner-up in the scoring race.
If we add in Morant's assist rate (9.3 per 100 team plays) to get a sense of his total share of the Grizzlies' offense, a measure I call "combined usage," only Trae Young of the Atlanta Hawks (44.7% of plays either used or facilitated with an assist) ranks ahead of Morant (44.5%), making Memphis suddenly one of the league's most heliocentric offenses.
When efficiency meets added volume
Of Morant's increase of nearly 16 points per game thus far over 2020-21, about 5.5 points -- a little more than a third -- can be attributed to his increased usage rate. Another 1.6 points comes from his minutes per game going up from 32.6 to 35.3. That leaves the bulk of the improvement (8.8 PPG) as a product of Morant scoring more efficiently than in 2020-21, when his true shooting percentage dropped to .537 from nearly league average (.556) as a rookie.
Typically, a player taking on a larger share of his team's offense translates into more difficult shots. That hasn't been the case for Morant, whose average shot has been better than his first two seasons, according to Second Spectrum's quantified shot quality (qSQ) measure. Per qSQ, which factors in the location and type of shot as well as the distance of nearby defenders, Morant's shots were in the top third in difficulty among players with at least 500 attempts in 2019-20 and 2020-21. Among players who have taken at least 30 shots this season, Morant's attempts have been league average in qSQ.
In part, that improvement in shots reflects Morant cutting midrange attempts almost entirely out of his offensive diet. Just two of his 69 shots this season have come between the paint and the 3-point line, according to NBA Advanced Stats, a rate down by 50% from last season.
Instead of adding midrangers, Morant's extra shots this season have been primarily in the restricted area around the basket, where he has taken 48% of his attempts -- up from 38% in 2020-21. Entering Tuesday's games, only two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo (37 in four games) had more shots in the restricted area than Morant in three games (33).
That might simply be a product of Morant getting healthy over the summer. As a rookie, 45% of his shots were in the restricted area, which had gone up to over half in last season's first three games before Morant suffered a Grade 2 ankle sprain that sidelined him for more than two weeks and noticeably sapped his explosiveness.
Getting to the rim more frequently should be sustainable for Morant, particularly with Valanciunas no longer occupying space in the post. Morant's improvement as a finisher will be more difficult to continue. Morant is hitting an incredible 73% of his attempts in the restricted area after making 58% as a rookie and 60% last season. That, along with a hot start from 3-point range (8-of-18, 44%, after slumping to 30% in 2020-21) are responsible for the bulk of Morant's efficiency.
Realistically, if Morant can pair the quality of shots he has taken with slightly improved shot-making as compared to his rookie season, he could post an effective field goal percentage (eFG) around 55%. That would be a dramatic upgrade from last season's 49% mark but far shy of the 64% eFG we've seen through the first three games.
Where do Morant and Memphis go from here?
First, the bad news: Leading the league in scoring through three games hasn't meant much historically. Since 1996-97, these players have been more likely to finish outside the NBA's final top 20 (five times) than to lead the league (four times). That happened as recently as last season, when early leader James Harden (37 PPG through the first three) saw his scoring average plummet thereafter -- in part because he joined Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving on the Brooklyn Nets via trade.
Of course, that's not really the goal for Morant. More importantly, his ability to improve his shot quality with a massive usage rate suggests the Grizzlies can more aggressively center their offense around Morant's skills. That has important implications as Memphis builds around him and Jaren Jackson Jr., suggesting that prioritizing quality role players who can space the floor for Morant and be effective on defense might be more important than finding additional shot creators.
It will be interesting to see how Brooks fits in when he returns, likely some time in November. When last we saw Brooks, he was averaging 25.8 PPG in the Grizzlies' five-game series loss to the Utah Jazz in the first round of last year's playoffs. At the same time, Brooks' penchant for midrange attempts has occasionally been a drag on Memphis' offense, and he'll have to adapt to more of a secondary role if Morant keeps cooking.
As well as Morant has played, he still might find it difficult to crack the Western Conference All-Star backcourt. Consider that the West returns eight guards from last season's All-Star team because Phoenix's Devin Booker and Utah's Mike Conley were both chosen as injury replacements, then added nine-time All-Star Russell Westbrook (who missed out in 2021) via trade.
If a spot does open up, Morant has thus far outplayed fellow aspiring first-timers De'Aaron Fox of the Sacramento Kings and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder. CJ McCollum, a more experienced potential first-time pick, has started the season nearly as hot as Morant.
At some point, if Morant continues to get to the basket as frequently as he has in the Grizzlies' first three games and knock down 3-pointers, his value will be impossible to deny. A strong start might not translate into immediate stardom for Morant, but it's further evidence the 22-year-old is well on his way.