Which rising stars might appear higher in our NBArank countdown next season?
On Tuesday, we revealed the first 50 players in our top 100 for the 2021-22 season in terms of expected quality and quantity of play. Part of the fun of NBArank is guessing which players will surprise us by outperforming their projections. Everybody has a take -- even those of us involved in compiling the rankings.
Inevitably, some players will make a leap. Of this year's top 50, still to be unveiled over the rest of the week, six appeared from 51 to 100 a year ago. A seventh wasn't even in the top 100 as a rookie, making the biggest jump of all.
Let's take a closer look at some of the candidates to follow this season, focusing on two different groups in particular: Young players whose continued development could lead them into the top 50, and veterans who might get there by reminding us of their value with bounce-back seasons after relatively disappointing performances in 2020-21 that were reflected in their current NBArank.
The rookie risers
NBArank is correctly skeptical of rookies' ability to help their teams win. Zion Williamson in 2019 was the only rookie to crack the top 50, compiled before he underwent knee surgery that sidelined him much of his first NBA campaign. By contrast, there's typically a couple of second-year players in the top 50, such as both Williamson and Ja Morant a year ago.
Naturally, the most likely candidates to emerge from this group are the top two picks, both of whom rank in this year's top 100: Cade Cunningham (76) and Jalen Green (96). But which rookie could climb the NBArank ladder the fastest?
Green is better positioned to put up impressive per-game stats for the Houston Rockets, who have mutually agreed with John Wall not to play their one veteran guard, leaving opportunities for Green to handle the ball frequently alongside young backcourt mate Kevin Porter Jr.
Given the Detroit Pistons have more talent on hand, including Jerami Grant and 2020-21 All-Rookie picks Saddiq Bey and Isaiah Stewart, Cunningham might not be as prolific a scorer early on. However, he's better positioned to be efficient. I'd also add No. 5 pick Jalen Suggs, who missed the top 100, as having a chance to make a leap into the top 50.
The sophomore surges
If I were to bet on any one player outside this year's top 50 making it next year, it would be 2020 No. 1 overall pick Anthony Edwards (No. 52). After all, Edwards just barely missed out this year and showed rapid development within his rookie campaign.
Having shot just 37% from the field and 30% from 3-point range before the All-Star break, Edwards scored with league-average efficiency in the second half by boosting those numbers to 45% and 35%, respectively. The return of D'Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns to the lineup gave Minnesota more credible scoring threats, while new head coach Chris Finch successfully put the ball in Edwards' hands frequently down the stretch.
At some point, Edwards' defense might limit his value, but his offensive upside is enormous.
Tyrese Haliburton (No. 74) is a good bet to take a bigger leap. The 2020 No. 12 overall pick, Haliburton almost immediately made teams regret passing on him, averaging 13.0 points and 5.3 assists per game as a part-time starter for the Sacramento Kings. Haliburton was limited to 58 games by injury and could take a step forward in terms of his leaguewide perception if he stays healthy.
Young players taking the next step
Among slightly older players, this group is led by John Collins (No. 54), who ranked in the top 50 in 2019 before tumbling last year. Collins delivered a strong season for the Atlanta Hawks, fitting into a complementary role as a power forward and excelling at both ends in the playoffs. He's not far from establishing himself as a top-50 player for years to come.
Lonzo Ball (No. 57) has been hanging around the edges of the top 50 for a while now. A strong first season with the Chicago Bulls could help Ball break through into the top 50 after finishing just outside each of the past two years.
Although he has played six NBA seasons, Christian Wood (No. 60) won't turn 26 until later this week. Wood dropped five spots in NBArank largely because of injuries; he played just 41 games last season but showed his impressive per-minute performance with the Detroit Pistons in 2019-20 was no fluke, averaging 21.0 points and 9.6 rebounds per game as a full-time starter for the Rockets.
Candidates to return to the top 50
As much as we think of players getting into the top 50 by development, four of the seven to go from outside it last year to in for 2021 had previously been in the top 50 before falling out. There are several clear options to follow that same path this season.
I think the most likely candidate is Jaren Jackson Jr. (No. 71), who was 43rd a year ago before missing most of the regular season following knee surgery. If Jackson returns to the level at which he played in 2019-20 before the injury, or even improves at age 22, he could easily get back into the top 50 for good.
A 16-spot drop for Fred VanVleet (No. 56) seems clearly tied to the Toronto Raptors' disappointing season. If the Raptors return to the playoffs after a disjointed season spent in Tampa, Florida, VanVleet's reputation should follow given he performed at more or less the same level in 2020-21 as he did the year before.
In the case of Gordon Hayward (No. 58), health is likely the biggest factor. Hayward has bounced back and forth from inside the top 50 and out over the past four years. Hayward was effective in his first season with the Charlotte Hornets, averaging nearly 20 PPG on above-average efficiency, but he missed the Hornets' final 24 games because of a foot sprain.
Lastly, don't be surprised if a good playoff run with the Denver Nuggets got Aaron Gordon (No. 69) back in the top 50 for the first time since back-to-back appearances in 2018 and 2019. Gordon struggled in the 2021 playoffs with Jamal Murray sidelined but could return to a more suitable role if Murray is healthy in time for the 2022 postseason.