The Cleveland Cavaliers landed the biggest remaining free agent on the market Friday, agreeing to a sign-and-trade deal to acquire restricted free agent Lauri Markkanen and sign him to a four-year, $67 million contract.
Despite Markkanen's talent, the Cavaliers adding another frontcourt contributor making starter money after already drafting Evan Mobley with the No. 3 pick and re-signing center Jarrett Allen to a five-year, $100 million contract raises questions -- before we even get to Cleveland sending out valuable frontcourt reserve Larry Nance Jr. in return.
The Portland Trail Blazers jumped into this trade to land Nance, a strong fit for their rotation, while the Chicago Bulls played middleman and leveraged matching rights for Markkanen into a pair of draft picks and a reasonable short-term gamble on forward Derrick Jones Jr.
Who wins the trade? Does this move bring the Cavaliers any closer to returning to the postseason? Kevin Pelton hands out trade grades for all three teams.
Cavaliers get: Lauri Markkanen
Bulls get: Derrick Jones Jr., 2022 lottery protected first-round pick, 2023 second-round pick (Nuggets)
Trail Blazers get: Larry Nance Jr.
Cleveland Cavaliers: D
At first blush, it certainly seems as if the Cavaliers have made a trade that gives them the weaker player on a more expensive contract who fits worse.
Markkanen is the better shooter and scorer, having finally translated his evident skill into a career-best 40% accuracy beyond the arc last season, producing a .619 true shooting percentage that ranked in the league's top 50. However, Nance does just about everything else better. He has developed into a plus passer, handing out assists nearly three times as frequently as Markkanen last season, and a versatile defender capable of guarding 3s and 4s.
Nance's value is reflected well by the three-year version of regularized adjusted plus/minus (RAPM) on NBAShotCharts.com, which adjusts impact for teammates and opponents on the court over that span, covering all three full Nance seasons in Cleveland. He rates slightly better than average (plus-0.2 points per 100 possessions), while Markkanen's last three seasons with the Bulls rated somewhat worse than average (minus-0.8). For the Cavaliers specifically, Nance's versatility was a plus. Of his 27 starts last season, 25 came as a power forward with Kevin Love sidelined. But Nance was also capable of playing both forward spots off the bench, or even starting alongside Love.
The ability to slide to small forward figures to take on even more importance this season with the addition of Mobley, who projects as the starting power forward alongside Allen in a big Cleveland frontcourt.
Markkanen did play some small forward last season after the Bulls added centers Nikola Vucevic and Daniel Theis at the trade deadline. My analysis of lineup data from NBA Advanced Stats shows him playing 125 minutes there, actually more than Nance logged in 2020-21. The challenge is finding defensive matchups where Markkanen can capably defend on the wing, which requires hiding him against players who don't pose a threat off the dribble. That contrasts with Nance, who often matched up with big wing stars such as Kevin Durant.
Perhaps the Cavaliers will be able to find enough minutes for Allen, Markkanen and Mobley at power forward and center. Playing Mobley against backup frontcourts alongside a dangerous stretch 4 will unlock more offensive-minded options for Cleveland coach J.B. Bickerstaff. It's unclear where that might leave Love, who has two years and $60 million remaining on the extension he signed with the Cavaliers shortly after LeBron James' departure. At this point, a buyout seems like the eventual outcome for Love and the Cavaliers.
This move does better fit Cleveland's timetable. At 24, Markkanen is on the same timetable as Allen (23) and guards Collin Sexton (22) and Darius Garland (21). Nance, who is 28, is better suited for a win-now organization. The Cavaliers can also hope there's additional upside to explore with Markkanen, who looked like a future star when he averaged 18.7 PPG in his second NBA season at age 21. Since then, Markkanen's usage rate and scoring trend have gone in the wrong direction, which led Chicago to move on.
The financial element is the big hit for Cleveland here. Nance was under contract for the next two seasons at $10.7 million and $9.7 million, respectively, as his salary declines from year to year. That's excellent value for a quality frontcourt reserve or swing starter. Depending on the structure of his contract, Markkanen will make a minimum of about $32 million over that span based on the reported $67 million total. (Per my ESPN colleague Bobby Marks, Markkanen does have a substantial non-guarantee on the final season of this deal in 2024-25, when just $6 million of his projected $17.9 million salary is guaranteed.)
It will be interesting to see whether adding Markkanen will affect the Cavaliers' negotiations on an extension for Sexton, who's heading into the final season of his rookie contract and would be a restricted free agent next summer if a deal isn't done. Assuming standard 5% raises for Markkanen and that Cleveland picks up team options on players on rookie contracts, that would leave about $40 million under the projected tax line for next year's first-round pick, to re-sign Sexton and to fill out the roster.
There are some additional options for the Cavaliers to create flexibility, including a Love buyout and declining the fourth-year option for wing Dylan Windler, who has played sparingly thus far due to injuries. Still, the fact that a team that went 22-50 last season and doesn't figure to be dramatically better in 2021-22 has to consider the luxury tax speaks to poor planning on the part of the Cleveland front office. This move doesn't make the situation any better and might make it worse.
Portland Trail Blazers: B+
This is a strong bit of opportunism by the Blazers, who weren't needed to make this trade happen from a financial standpoint but jumped in to grab Nance. The defensive versatility the Cavaliers will miss with Nance is an even better fit in Portland, where he can play either forward spot depending whether new Blazers coach Chauncey Billups wants to go bigger on the wing to match up or play smaller and faster.
Given Portland's high payroll, Nance's modest salary is ideal. The Blazers added less than a million in 2021-22 salary swapping out Jones for Nance and also have him under contract for 2022-23 at a reasonable number. The Blazers will still surely start the coming season in the tax but close enough to the line -- $3 million over with a 14th player making the minimum salary, per Marks -- they could get under at the deadline if needed.
Compared with Jones, who never quite found his place in Portland despite starting 43 games, Nance should be a more useful contributor. He has developed into a league-average 3-point shooter, a crucial skill for the Blazers to keep opponents from sending too much help toward Damian Lillard. And Nance is closer to the on-ball defender Portland thought Jones would be. In theory, the Blazers could start Nance and bring Norman Powell off the bench in certain matchups that require more size on the wing.
Even if Nance is strictly a reserve, he'll surely play big minutes both behind starting power forward Robert Covington and sliding out to the wing. Nance still isn't the kind of addition Lillard wants to help the Blazers contend for championships, but he makes this a much stronger and better-balanced roster without costing much more in terms of salary.
As for the first-rounder Portland gave up, there's good news and bad news in terms of it being lottery-protected through 2028, the last possible year teams can trade picks at this point. The positive is the Blazers have protected themselves from ever giving up a lottery pick, which is crucial as they consider the possibility of moving on from Lillard at some point in the future and beginning a rebuilding process.
The downside is if Portland can't guarantee another team a first-round pick in a deal until this one conveys, which means this is probably it for the Blazers in terms of adding via trade unless it's absolutely certain they're going to make the playoffs -- something that's less likely to happen with the advent of the play-in tournament.
Chicago Bulls: B+
For the Bulls, getting a first-round pick in a Markkanen sign-and-trade was crucial to helping replace the three they've given up in the past four months: two to the Orlando Magic for Vucevic and a third to the San Antonio Spurs as part of Chicago's own sign-and-trade to add DeMar DeRozan. The Bulls now have the ability to include this pick from Portland in trades or simply keep it to (if and when it conveys) add another player on a rookie contract.
Still, I wonder whether Chicago might not have been better off simply making this trade straight up with the Cavaliers and keeping Nance. Nance's defensive versatility makes him the kind of player the Bulls could use to replace Thaddeus Young in their second unit. Instead, Chicago will count on rehabilitating Jones' value after a disappointing conclusion to his one season with the Blazers.
Nine months ago, Jones was being wooed by teams such as Portland with the non-taxpayer midlevel exception as a coveted free agent. He was able to leverage that into a two-year deal for the full midlevel with a player option for the second season, anticipating getting back out into free agency at age 24 as a proven starter. Instead, Jones fell out of the Blazers' rotation and decided to pick up the option.
Jones might fit better with the Bulls than he did in Portland. He proved incapable of providing enough floor spacing as a small forward for the Blazers. Jones is best cast in the frontcourt next to a center who can space the floor, allowing him to dive to the rim on pick-and-rolls. I'd love to see coach Billy Donovan get him regular minutes alongside Vucevic, taking starting power forward Patrick Williams out early so Williams can play with the second unit when Vucevic is on the bench.
The fit for Jones isn't quite as strong with backup center Tony Bradley, a non-shooter, but either way he'll get plenty of minutes at power forward because there are few other options. If Jones proves a valuable contributor off the bench and Chicago gets a pick in the middle of next year's first round, we could look back at this trade as a huge win for the Bulls.