Summer league is the ideal setting for huge performances from ultra-confident, talented players who are given a level of freedom that they likely won't see in the regular season.
While big games in summer league don't always translate to sustainable NBA success, the Las Vegas tournaments of years can sometimes indicate what to expect when summer league stars make their regular-season debuts.
What does that mean for members of the 2021 rookie class who went off in Vegas? Mike Schmitz breaks down what lessons and insights to take away from this year's action.
MORE: The rookies and sophomores who stood out in Las Vegas
1. Bucket-getters usually shine
From Josh Selby (24.2 PPG) in 2012 to Andrew Goudelock (19.0 PPG) in 2013, Jordan McRae (24.3 PPG) in 2016 and Antonio Blakeney (21.0 PPG) in 2018, bucket-getting guards have proven that summer league is the ideal setting to put up big numbers. With minimal practice time and less of an emphasis on offensive execution and defensive intensity, you're bound to see huge performances from fearless guards who have the type of freedom that they likely won't see alongside NBA stars in the regular season.
Some of the names listed above prove that filling up the box score in summer league doesn't always lead to success in the NBA.
As for this year's class, the Brooklyn Nets' Cameron Thomas -- who led summer league in scoring at a blistering 27.0 points per game -- will be an interesting case study. While he surely won't duplicate those numbers alongside Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden, the fact that Thomas got a lot of his buckets out of quick-hitting actions suggests that he'll be able to take advantage of scoring opportunities when his number is called in Brooklyn.
What about the Denver Nuggets' Nah'Shon Hyland? His performance also looked more sustainable, as he showed more playmaking chops than we saw from him at VCU. He shot at a 40% clip from 3 and should have opportunities with Nuggets point guard Jamal Murray still recovering from a torn ACL.
I'm more interested to see if a guy like Josh Christopher (16.8 points on 44.0% true shooting) can score efficiently within the flow of a half-court offense, as he had unstoppable moments in transition for the Houston Rockets. Sharife Cooper (14.8 points and 7.3 assists) is another player to follow. He was considered a draft-day steal for the Atlanta Hawks, but can he improve his shooting from the line (66.7%) and from long range (33.3%) for the regular season?
2. Don't give up on the 'team-first' prospects
While summer league is built for bucket-getting shot creators, there are a handful of unselfish "team-first" prospects who are better suited for when there's more talent around them. In 2019, Keldon Johnson averaged just 9.3 points in 22.1 minutes and didn't make a 3 in Vegas. In 2018, Mikal Bridges scored just 6.2 points per game in 20.0 minutes over five contests, while Kevin Knox II led the draft class in scoring at 21.2 points in 32.2 minutes per game. How does that pertain to this year's class?
Franz Wagner of the Orlando Magic comes to mind. His strengths -- moving the ball, cutting and defending -- aren't exactly accentuated or heavily valued in a summer league setting. While shooting just 2-for-13 from 3 is far from ideal, his intensity and versatility will be coveted when the games matter.
The same could be said for the New Orleans Pelicans' Herb Jones, who doesn't quite have the scoring ability to shine in summer league but could be one of the more impactful players taken in the second round thanks to his defensive versatility, basketball IQ and overall experience.
Even a high pick like Scottie Barnes, who I think has All-Star potential for the Toronto Raptors, is bound to look better with more talent around him as he's not yet wired to shoulder the bulk of the scoring load, even though he checks virtually every other box.
3. Glimpses over production and efficiency for top picks
Not every top-five pick is physically ready to dominate summer league games, which doesn't mean that NBA success isn't right around the corner. Brandon Ingram -- who averaged just 12.2 points on 48.5% from 2 and 25% from 3 over five games in Vegas -- comes to mind. Karl-Anthony Towns scored just 12.8 points per game in 31.2 minutes, missing all five of his 3-point attempts and finishing with almost twice as many turnovers as assists.
There should be little worry about Evan Mobley's 37.2 true shooting percentage and slight build at this stage of his career, as the glimpses he showed as a passer, ball handler and shooter should far outweigh any type of efficiency metrics. Because Mobley is a connector who will be better with more talent around him, Cavs fans should be thrilled about what they have in the former USC 7-footer.
The same could be said for Jonathan Kuminga, who shot just 42% from 2 and 27.8% from 3 over four games and was still one of the more impressive rookies to take the floor. What Kuminga showed as a downhill driver, shot-creator, occasional shotmaker and versatile defender left more of an impression on me than him needing 18 shots to score 18 points consistently. While it has always been about consistency and sustainability with Kuminga, he's looking like a steal for the Golden State Warriors at No. 7.
4. The clear-cut draft-day steal
There are some players you can instantly tell should have been drafted higher after just one or two games of summer league.
Jalen Johnson, who averaged 19 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.0 assists on almost 62% from 2 and 41.7% from 3, is the first player who comes to mind. Watching him wreak havoc in the open court and put pressure on the rim at 6-foot-9 suggests that being selected No. 20 by the Atlanta Hawks was way too low for the former Duke forward, even with some of the questions about his consistency.
While Michael Porter Jr.'s slide to the Nuggets at No. 14 in 2018 was more a result of his health than anything, this situation has a similar feel -- another prep star who was once projected in the top five, yet slid due to myriad concerns. We'll see how Johnson performs when there's less freedom and more pressure in real games, but early returns look good for the Hawks.
5. Give the youth some time
Just because your favorite rookie didn't produce quite like 24-year-old Chris Duarte or 22-year-old Luka Garza, it's not time to give up on him. In a season with a short turnaround and COVID-19 ramifications, it should come as little surprise that Duarte looked more efficient than 20-year-old James Bouknight and 19-year-old Keon Johnson, or that Garza was more polished than 19-year-olds Day'Ron Sharpe and Isaiah Jackson.
Most of the teams with younger players will not be relying on them to contribute immediately, but given time to learn the nuances of the NBA game and add muscle to their developing frames, the younger players should be just fine in the future.
Mike Schmitz is an NBA Draft expert and a contributor to DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and International teams.