Now that most of the major moves in 2021 NBA free agency are in the books, what should we expect in 2022?
A once star-studded free-agent class consisting of Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and perhaps Kawhi Leonard, is now led by Zach LaVine and perhaps Bradley Beal.
"Because next offseason is average at best in talent, I am expecting the trade market to be extremely active during the regular season," a Western Conference general manager told ESPN.
Other than internal improvement -- young players taking a step in their development, continuity and health -- the lone avenue likely to improve a team's roster will be in trades. The LA Clippers got a jump on that Monday when they acquired Eric Bledsoe from the Memphis Grizzlies.
Instead of going into next offseason with two expiring contracts (Rajon Rondo and Patrick Beverley) and no money available to sign a replacement, the Clippers took on the $19.4 million owed to Bledsoe in 2022-23 (of which just $3.9 million is guaranteed).
Let's take a look at the superstars to watch, X-factor teams, potential surprises and big questions in a preview of what could be a league-altering transaction period.
MORE: Lowe's 2021 offseason winners and losers
How does the 2021 free-agent class compare to that of 2020?
Teams are already calling 2022 free agency "The Offseason of the Rotational Players."
Out of the 190 projected free agents, only 32 players (12 of whom are restricted) can be considered starter-level or better.
Three of those 33 players -- James Harden, Kyrie Irving and Russell Westbrook -- will likely never see free agency. Harden and Irving are on track to sign long-term contract extensions before the season starts.
"As it pertains to [Irving] and [Harden], we're having those discussions with them now," Brooklyn Nets GM Sean Marks said. "There's no immediate hurry to get any of these guys done in terms of the first day of free agency. These are opportunities for us to sit down, break bread together, meet with [Nets governor] Joe Tsai, and really all get on the same page.
"I feel very confident that by the first day of training camp, we'll be looking at those three, in particular, being signed, sealed and delivered and being a part of the Brooklyn Nets for a long time to come."
Westbrook has a $44.2 million player option, but the reality that his hometown Los Angeles Lakers give him the best shot at winning a championship could see the guard opt in to his contract for 2022-23. He could also do what Chris Paul did in Phoenix and decline the option to re-sign on a long-term contract but at a lower number.
Beal can sign a four-year $187 million extension with the Wizards starting on Oct. 1. If Beal does not sign an extension it should not be seen as a sign that he wants out of Washington. The All-Star guard is eligible to sign a five-year, $235 million contract with the Wizards next summer.
If Beal is off the market, that leaves Bulls guard LaVine as the marquee free agent next year. LaVine is also extension eligible but because an extension would be worth $100 million less than what he could earn next July, the All-Star will play out the season on an expiring contract.
Below is the list of potential free agents ranging from franchise players to starters. Some of the potential restricted free agents could still sign extensions off their rookie-scale contracts before the season begins.
Given the lack of depth in these lists, the bulk of next year's class will consist of key reserves, rotational players and developmental players.
Franchise: Harden (player) and Beal (player)
All-NBA: Irving (player)
All-Star: LaVine and Westbrook (player)
Top Starter: Kevin Huerter (restricted), Collin Sexton (restricted), Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr. (restricted), Jaren Jackson Jr. (restricted), Jonas Valanciunas, Mikal Bridges (restricted) and Deandre Ayton (restricted)
Starter: Josh Richardson, Miles Bridges (restricted), John Wall, T.J. Warren, Ivica Zubac (team), Kyle Anderson, Victor Oladipo, Donte DiVincenzo (restricted), Mitchell Robinson, Luguentz Dort (team), Wendell Carter Jr. (restricted), Andre Drummond, Robert Covington, Jusuf Nurkic, Marvin Bagley III (restricted), Lonnie Walker IV (restricted), Jalen Brunson, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Daniel Gafford (team)
Should we expect more extensions before the season starts in October?
The answer is a resounding yes.
Durant, Butler, Curry, Joel Embiid, Julius Randle, Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier, Luka Doncic, Trae Young and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander all signed long-term extensions this offseason.
Smart, Rozier and Randle made the smart play to take the guaranteed money now and not risk a potential injury and limited market to test free agency.
Besides Irving and Harden, other veterans who could sign extensions this season include Richardson, Gordon, Jalen Brunson, Tyus Jones and Robinson (a 2018 second-round pick who isn't subject to the deadline for first-round picks to agree to an extension). Because all of these players are in the last year of their contracts, there is no deadline before the season starts to get a deal done.
Last year, six former first-round picks signed rookie extensions right before the start of the season.
With only Doncic, Young, Gilgeous-Alexander and Celtics center Robert Williams III having agreed to extensions so far, expect more deals before the October 18 deadline.
Is there a position of strength?
The point guards once again are expected to be the position of strength, despite the lack of headliners like Paul, Mike Conley, Kyle Lowry and Lonzo Ball in the 2021 class.
Even if Irving and Westbrook are not free agents, the point guard group includes quality players such as Beverley, Brunson, Jones, Dennis Schroder, Patty Mills (if he declines his option), Ricky Rubio, Goran Dragic and Tomas Satoransky.
If Beal joins LaVine as a free agent and Oladipo can regain his health, the top three available unrestricted free agents would all be at shooting guard.
What theme should we keep an eye on?
No team signed a restricted free agent to an offer sheet this offseason, but that is likely going to change next year. Although cap growth is projected to be limited (more on that below), expect front offices to take an aggressive approach with restricted free agents.
We originally had named the 2018 rookie class as the $1.2 billion club, based on the amount of potential money earned in an extension. However, through the first three weeks of free agency, only three players -- Doncic, Young and Gilgeous-Alexander -- have signed extensions.
While we are still two months away from the Oct. 18 extension deadline, the market next year could be flooded with restricted free agents who were drafted in the first round in 2018. Former second-round picks Terance Mann and Gafford are likely to see their team options declined, which would make them restricted free agents as well.
How many teams are projected to have cap space?
Despite a $7 million increase in the salary cap from $112 million to $119 million, ESPN is projecting only four teams to have cap space. The Detroit Pistons, Orlando Magic and San Antonio Spurs are expected to have a minimum of $30 million in room. After trading Jarrett Culver and Juancho Hernangomez, the Minnesota Timberwolves now project to have $20 million in room. For comparison, five teams had cap space this offseason and four in 2020.
Some more notes on cap space:
The recent Smart and Williams extensions have eliminated Boston from having cap space in 2022. The Celtics would have needed to make a series of moves including renouncing Smart, Williams, Richardson and waiving Al Horford to create a max-salary slot.
In the scenario that LaVine does not re-sign, Chicago would have $20 million in cap space.
The Cavaliers could have $30 million in cap space if a buyout for Kevin Love is reached and Sexton, a restricted free agent, is not re-signed.
The Rockets would have cap space but only in the unlikely scenario that John Wall declines his $47.4 million player option.
The Grizzlies can keep the free-agent hold of Jackson and still have up to $23 million in cap space. However, Jones and Anderson would need to be renounced, and the team option of Culver declined and Hernangomez waived.
The Pelicans could have $20 million in room but at the cost of Valanciunas, the team's projected starting center.
New York is right below the salary cap ($110.6 million in guaranteed contracts) and can shed the contracts of Derrick Rose, Alec Burks and Nerlens Noel to create a max slot. The three players have a team option in 2023-24.
Oklahoma City has $106 million in salary and could create room if they decline the $3.5 million team option of Mike Muscala.
Phoenix has only $96 million in guaranteed contracts but are over the cap because of the free agent holds of Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges.
The Trail Blazers have eight free agents but would not have cap space because of the $93 million committed to Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and Norman Powell.
For the Kings to create $22 million in cap space, they would have to let Bagley, the former No. 2 overall pick, walk.
The Bulls and Wizards proved this offseason with the sign-and-trade deals for Ball, DeMar DeRozan and Spencer Dinwiddie that there are other resources to improve your team outside of cap space. Since the 2019 offseason, 25 players have been acquired in sign-and-trades.
Will the luxury tax and hard cap impact how teams spend?
Yes but in a positive way.
Despite only three teams projected to have cap space, an increase in the luxury tax ($136.6 to $145 million) and hard cap ($143 million to $151.6 million) should see teams take more of an aggressive approach when it comes to using their $10.1 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception.
For example, just four teams (Chicago, Dallas, Miami and Toronto) out of 18 teams spent more than $5.9 million of their $9.5 million midlevel exception this season. The Timberwolves had the full amount available, but as a result of the tax threshold increasing only 3%, signing a free agent would have put them in the luxury tax.
Should we expect the Nets, Warriors, Bucks, Jazz, 76ers, Heat and Lakers to compete for the same free agents?
That group of seven teams, all of whom consider themselves top contenders, will enter next offseason with more than $1 billion in committed salaries. As a result, each team will be pitching free agents on a chance of winning a championship, but with only the taxpayer midlevel and veterans minimum exceptions available to offer.
The Lakers have $145 million in committed salaries (including Westbrook's option) and are over the luxury tax even with just five players under contract. Similar to this most recent offseason, when the Lakers' spending options were limited, Los Angeles will have non-Bird rights on its own free agents (a 120% raise off the veteran minimum), and the $6.2 million taxpayer midlevel and veteran minimum exceptions.
Brooklyn, Utah and Milwaukee have a slight advantage when it comes to retaining their own free agents (Blake Griffin, Bruce Brown, Joe Ingles and Bobby Portis) and paying above each exception. Brown and Ingles have full Bird rights (the ability to exceed the cap), and Griffin and Portis will have established early Bird rights (a starting salary of $10.9 million).
We could have included the Clippers in this group but because they have 13 players under contract in 2022-23, the focus will be on roster continuity for how they improve.
Is there an under-the-radar signing this offseason that will impact next July?
Keep an eye on Oladipo in Miami.
The Oladipo signing this offseason barely garnered attention because the former All-Star is recovering from surgery to repair his right quadriceps tendon and is not expected to contribute on the court in the early part of the season.
However, according to Dr. Jonathan Glashow, an Oladipo return could be sooner.
"I repaired the quad tendon and did it a little differently than [he had] it done before," Glashow told ESPN. "The quad wasn't really hooked up. It was torn, and I reattached it. I was amazed he was playing with what he had. I'm very optimistic that I could clear him in six months, by November. I think he's going to play really well again. ... [The surgery] went extremely well, and it's healing beautifully. I'm confident he'll play next year."
If Oladipo does return, it will give the Heat a potent lineup that already includes Lowry, Butler and Bam Adebayo.
More importantly, the Heat retain Bird rights on Oladipo and can exceed the cap to sign him to a new contract next offseason.
Are there any players who are supermax eligible?
Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is eligible to sign a five-year, $254 million supermax extension next offseason even if he does not make an All-NBA team in 2021-22. Jokic met the criteria when he was named MVP and also by garnering All-NBA honors in back-to-back seasons. The extension would be the largest contract in NBA history.
Three other names to keep an eye on when it comes to the supermax are LaVine, Karl-Anthony Towns and Devin Booker.
Although LaVine was drafted by Minnesota, he is eligible to sign a five-year, $235 million supermax extension with the Bulls if he were to earn All-NBA this season, because he was traded to Chicago from Minnesota while still on his rookie-scale contract.
Towns and Booker each have two remaining seasons (2022-23 and 2023-24) on their contracts with the Timberwolves and Suns, respectively. If either player earns All-NBA, he would become eligible to sign a four-year, $206 million extension with his team.
Beal is eligible to sign a five-year, $235 million contract to remain with the Wizards even if he does not earn All-NBA. By next offseason, Beal will have reached 10 years of service, making him eligible to sign a contract for 35% of the 2022-23 salary cap.
What about the 2022 rookie-extension candidates?
Expect to hear plenty about the future of Zion Williamson, especially if the Pelicans fail to reach the playoffs, or at least the play-in tournament. That scenario would see Williamson enter the final year of his rookie-scale contract without having ever appeared in the postseason.
Despite the doom-and-gloom scenario, no player has ever turned down a five-year rookie max extension. The closest was when Kristaps Porzingis forced his way out of New York to Dallas in January 2018.
The five-year max for rookies from the 2019 draft class, including Williamson and 2019-20 Rookie of the Year winner Ja Morant, is worth $181 million. The total contract value could increase to $217 million if the player is named to an All-NBA team.
Other notable extension candidates from the 2019 draft include RJ Barrett, Tyler Herro, Matisse Thybulle, Keldon Johnson, Darius Garland, Cam Reddish and De'Andre Hunter.
Which team should we keep an eye on?
The Hawks will not have cap space, but that will not discourage GM Travis Schlenk from adding to their roster in the future.
"I still think when you look at the depth of our roster and the young talent that we have, we don't have draft assets like we have in the past anymore, but we now have guys under contract that you could match some of the bigger salaries," Schlenk told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "I think last year kind of put us back on the NBA map as far as a destination. Those who want to get traded, they want to go somewhere they think they can win. And I think now that perception of us is out there because we do have a young core that did show success in the playoffs. So the hope would be when a star player does ask to be traded, we'll be one of the destinations he'll be open to coming to."
The Hawks have committed $300 million in contracts this offseason to Young and John Collins and still have a decision to make on an extension with Huerter before Oct. 18.
If the Hawks were to make a move for a superstar, it would likely cost them at least one and potentially both of their top-10 picks from the 2019 draft (Hunter and Reddish).