How does adding Kemba Walker change the outlook for the New York Knicks?
ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported Wednesday morning that Walker had reached a buyout agreement with the Oklahoma City Thunder and plans to sign with the Knicks -- a homecoming for the Bronx native -- after clearing waivers.
Can Walker, 31, revitalize his career in Madison Square Garden after two injury-marred seasons with the Boston Celtics? Why would the Thunder agree to a buyout with Walker rather than waiting to try to trade him?
Let's take a look at this surprising transaction.
Walker comes at discount for the Knicks
There's no question that adding Walker is a coup for New York. Barely two years ago, Walker was one of the marquee free agents on the market, agreeing to a max deal with the Celtics in the opening hours of free agency. Now the Knicks will be getting him at a steep discount with the buyout presumably supplying the bulk of his salary.
After agreeing to new contracts for returning players Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel and Derrick Rose and newcomer Evan Fournier on Monday, New York has a maximum of around $10 million in remaining cap space. (Getting to that number would require it to waive point guard Luca Vildoza, who never played for the Knicks after signing late in the 2020-21 regular season.) That's a big pay cut from Walker's original $36 million salary this season.
Although Walker wasn't the same player in Boston that he was during eight seasons with the Charlotte Hornets while dealing with recurring knee issues that forced him to miss 34 games over that span, he's still an enormous upgrade over incumbent New York starter Elfrid Payton. Even the lesser version of Walker averaged 23.7 and 21.8 points per 36 minutes over the past two seasons, respectively, and he made the 2020 All-Star Game. By contrast, Payton averaged 15.5 points per 36 minutes in 2020-21. The lack of scoring punch resulted in Payton playing just 13 minutes total in the Knicks' first-round series loss to the Atlanta Hawks.
New York can reasonably hope to get a somewhat better version of Walker after a full offseason. He was among the players most affected by the NBA's decision to begin the 2020-21 regular season on Dec. 23, not long after Walker received a stem cell injection in his troublesome left knee and was put on a 12-week strengthening program, per a Celtics news release.
Walker missed the season's first 11 games and had to rehab on the fly, predictably struggling with his shooting. After the All-Star break, Walker looked much more like himself, averaging 20 PPG with a .584 true shooting percentage that would have been the best of his career for a full season. Unfortunately, Walker dealt with different injuries late in the season, missing four games due to an oblique strain and suffering a bone bruise in the same knee in the opening round of the playoffs that sidelined him for his final two games in Boston.
New York's offense now looks more potent
Payton wasn't the only problem for the Knicks offensively during their loss to the Hawks. New York averaged just 102.1 points per 100 possessions in the series, an offensive rating that would have ranked last in the league by a wide margin during the regular season. Adding Walker and Fournier should make the Knicks a far more potent squad going forward.
In particular, a starting group with the two newcomers at guard and RJ Barrett and Julius Randle at forward should be able to attack opposing defenses from any of those four positions, with only the starter at center (either Noel or Mitchell Robinson) incapable of creating his own offense. And all four are good enough outside shooters to space the floor for each other.
As compared to Payton, Walker should be an upgrade in two key areas. He's a more dangerous pick-and-roll playmaker, having averaged 1.03 points per chance on ball screens the last two regular seasons, according to Second Spectrum tracking, good for 18th among players who have run at least 500 of them. Payton's 0.93 points per chance ranked 93rd among the same group.
Additionally, Walker will command more attention as a shooter when he's playing without the ball in his hands. Per Second Spectrum, Walker's 62% effective field goal percentage (eFG, which accounts for the added value of 3-point shots) on catch-and-shoot attempts the past two seasons ranks in the 72nd percentile leaguewide among players with at least 100 attempts. Payton's 47.5% eFG ranks in the 4th percentile -- just 18 players in the group have been worse.
The tradeoff is that New York does get weaker on defense with Walker and Fournier replacing Payton and Reggie Bullock, who agreed to sign with the Dallas Mavericks on Monday. The 6-foot Walker doesn't offer the same size and length at point guard as the 6-foot-3 Payton, limiting his defensive value.
That said, coach Tom Thibodeau's defenses have succeeded with undersized point guards in the past. Thibodeau's 2012-13 Chicago Bulls beat the Brooklyn Nets in the opening round with 5-foot-9 Nate Robinson playing 30 MPG. And Walker's willingness to throw himself in front of bigger opponents to take charges, if perhaps not advisable for his long-term health, should endear him to Thibodeau. Walker led the NBA by taking 0.51 charges per game last season, according to NBA Advanced Stats tracking.
All told, Walker's addition now makes me optimistic the Knicks can improve on last year's 41-31 record despite the factors that could cause regression to the mean. New York has upgraded its talent enough to overcome those concerns.
Oklahoma City keeps draft picks for Walker
Given the Thunder's tendency to spin veteran players acquired in trades forward in future deals, accumulating additional draft picks, there was an expectation the same might happen with Walker. However, his situation was different than predecessor Al Horford's -- sent back to the Celtics for Walker in June -- because of how the Oklahoma City roster is set up.
The Thunder could afford to start Horford the first three months of the 2020-21 season because they had no standout prospects at center. When Horford was shut down, he was replaced by 2019 second-round pick Isaiah Roby and G League standout Moses Brown, the latter of whom was also sent to Boston in the Walker trade and has since moved on to the Mavericks.
Point guard is a different story for Oklahoma City. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the centerpiece of the Thunder's rebuild, who agreed to a five-year, max rookie extension just after that market opened at midnight Eastern on Tuesday, is the team's future at the position. And while Gilgeous-Alexander can play either guard spot, as he has the past two seasons, the Thunder also have 2020 second-round pick Theo Maledon in their long-term plans at the point.
Playing Walker would have taken away playing time from those promising young guards and was no guarantee of rehabilitating his value for a future trade. So while Oklahoma City might have left some sort of draft pick unclaimed for once, I can understand the decision to simply agree to buy out Walker and let him pick his destination.
After all, the Thunder already have spun the Walker deal forward. They sent the No. 16 pick acquired from the Celtics to the Houston Rockets on draft night in a trade that yielded two future first-round picks.