Where are the Golden State Warriors heading after signing Stephen Curry to a four-year, $215 million extension?
Curry's extension looks like the most eventful part of what's been a rather quiet offseason so far for the Warriors. Despite weeks of trade rumors, Golden State stayed put with two lottery picks, drafting Jonathan Kuminga at No. 7 and Moses Moody No. 14. The Warriors haven't ventured into the deep waters in free agency, either.
As a result, Golden State still seems caught between two eras heading into the 2021-22 season. The return of Klay Thompson from an absence of longer than two years reunites the core featuring Curry, Thompson and Draymond Green that led the Warriors to the 2015 NBA championship.
Can Golden State successfully combine that generation of stars with contributions from their young prospects?
Curry signs up through age 38
Previously, Curry was eligible to sign an extension during the abbreviated 2020 offseason, and his decision to wait raised some eyebrows. Ultimately, it appears more about the ability to add an extra year by extending now as compared to last year. The four-year extension matches the longest deal Curry could have signed by waiting to hit unrestricted free agency next summer and guarantees him $215 million in new money.
The extension takes Curry through the 2025-26 season, which would be his 17th in the NBA and age 38. That's not quite a lifetime deal, but it surely covers Curry's remaining years as a superstar.
Curry did show in 2020-21 that his prime might go longer than we expected. He averaged a career-high 32.0 PPG and broke his own NBA record by making 5.3 3-pointers per game. With Green anchoring the defense and helping facilitate his heroics, Curry's dominant second-half run led the Warriors to an impressive 16-6 record over their last 22 games before they lost twice in the inaugural play-in tournament and fell short of the playoffs.
In a way, Curry's renaissance created a good problem for Golden State: How to put enough veteran help around him to compete now without sacrificing the dream of building the next great Warriors core through the draft.
Two Golden State generations
Much of the Warriors' roster cleaves into two May-December groups. There's the Curry-Green-Thompson core, all of them 30 or older. (Curry is the oldest and most experienced of this group.) At the other extreme are nine players in their first three NBA seasons, including this year's pair of lottery picks and 2020 No. 2 overall pick James Wiseman.
The question for Golden State is whether their paths might intersect when the young talent is capable of supporting the veterans while those players are still close enough to their prime to anchor a contender. Last season wasn't encouraging in that regard. Although the Warriors got strong performances from second-year players and reliable rotation pieces Jordan Poole and Juan Toscano-Anderson, Wiseman proved more of a developmental project than the team hoped.
It's a little bit of a challenge to isolate Wiseman's impact individually from starting wing Kelly Oubre Jr. because their minutes largely overlapped (Oubre played 63% of Wiseman's minutes, per NBA Advanced Stats), but Golden State struggled with that combo on the floor alongside Curry, Green and Andrew Wiggins. Despite the presence of Curry and Green, that starting five was outscored by an unthinkable 12.8 points per 100 possessions according to NBA Advanced Stats -- worst of any lineup that saw at least 200 minutes of action.
Individually, Wiseman's superficially positive averages of 11.5 PPG and 5.8 RPG didn't hold up to additional scrutiny. In a league where the average center posted a .608 true shooting percentage when accounting for 3s and trips to the free throw line, Wiseman's .552 mark was unimpressive. His rebound rates were worse than the average center on both offense and defense, and Wiseman blocked shots at a below-average rate.
None of that is reason to write off the future of a 20-year-old who played just three NCAA games, had no opportunity to play summer league and started training camp late because of a stint in the NBA's health and safety protocols. Still, Wiseman's performance undermined the hope that he could contribute as a role player immediately while growing into a star.
Warriors straddling their present and future
Thus far, Golden State's choice between the two generations has been to not make a choice. By keeping the two lottery picks and drafting the 18-year-old Kuminga and 19-year-old Moody, the Warriors prioritized their future over dealing the picks for middling veterans who could help more now. In free agency, Golden State has been more focused on the present, signing veterans who can fill roles off the bench around the stars.
At some point, the Warriors may be forced to choose a direction. That could come via an opportunity for a trade. If Bradley Beal ever decides he wants out of Washington, Golden State would surely be at the front of the line of teams positioning to make a deal with the Wizards using some of their recent draft picks.
Resolving Curry's future with an extension takes away some of the pressure on the Warriors to put together the best possible roster to win now. Still, Curry will have the ability to apply pressure if the team struggles next season. There's also the internal leverage of wanting to maximize Curry's late prime while he's still in it.
We'll see whether Golden State can continue to pull off winning now without sacrificing future potential.