For the Phoenix Suns, the heartbreak of losing an NBA Finals after being up 2-0 will eventually be replaced by positive vibes about the type of season they had. After missing the playoffs for 10 consecutive seasons, the Suns reached the Finals with a roster that is capable of competing for championships well into the future.
The focus in the offseason turns to Chris Paul, who can become a free agent by declining his $44.2 million player option, free agent Cameron Payne and rookie extensions for Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges.
Chris Paul
Do not let the Finals define the season Chris Paul had and the impact he made on this Suns roster.
A little more than two years ago, the $125 million that the Houston Rockets owed Paul was considered toxic. He was viewed as an aging player with his best days behind him and a legacy who would be marred by injuries in the playoffs. Fast forward to now and Paul is coming off two All-NBA-level seasons in which he played nearly every game for the Suns and Oklahoma City Thunder. He finished fifth in MVP voting this season.
Now entering the offseason, Paul, 36, has a decision to make on his $44.2 million player option. He can opt in to his contract by Aug. 1 and sign an extension with the Suns once the moratorium is lifted on Aug. 6. Because of the Over 38 rule, Paul can only extend his contract for a maximum of two years. There are no restrictions on how much the starting salary in the first year of the extension can decline. For example, the Suns can extend him for two years and $70 million, with a cap hit of $35 million in 2022-23. Besides LeBron James' extension in December, no players 35 or older have signed a contract with a starting salary of $30 million in the first year.
Despite his age and the fact that there is no team that would offer him $44.2 million as a free agent, Paul still holds tremendous leverage over the Suns organization. This past season, Paul ranked ninth in the NBA in RPM Wins (a measure of both the quality and quantity of his contributions). Without him on the roster, the Suns would likely have been a 40-win team, not one with the second-best record in the league.
His impact on the roster cannot be measured just in statistics.
"I love CP, man," Deandre Ayton said after the Suns' Game 4 win against the LA Clippers in the Western Conference finals. "That's really the only teammate that really pushed me. Like big-bro-type push. I think he was the best thing that happened to my career. I can say that every day."
What will transpire from now until Aug. 1 is that Paul's representatives from Creative Artists Agency and the Suns' front office will converse on what the future holds. A compromise from both sides would be for Paul to decline his $44.2 million option but sign a new, three-year, $105 million contract on Aug. 6.
The $44.2 million salary in 2021-22 would be replaced with a $35 million cap hit, allowing Phoenix to re-sign backup point guard Cameron Payne and stay below the luxury tax. Opting in and extending will put Phoenix in the luxury tax for the next three seasons.
If Paul declines the option, that is an indication a new contract is waiting from Phoenix or there is a secondary option with a team that has cap space. The Suns could offer a contract for up to four seasons, and a team such as the New York Knicks that projects to have more than $50 million in room can sign him to a three-year deal. In the unlikely scenario that Paul does leave, Phoenix would have $27 million in cap space.
As we saw with Gordon Hayward in free agency in November and Al Horford the year before, players prioritize long-term security even if that means taking less money in the first year than they would have made by picking up their option year. In the case of Hayward, the forward took a $6 million pay reduction in 2020-21 but secured more than $100 million in long-term guaranteed money.
However, Paul has earned over $300 million in his career, has signed three max contracts and is at a point in his life when competing for a championship and quality of life might outweigh searching for that next lucrative contract.
The Suns check the box for championship roster and quality of life.
The rookie extensions
Unless you're a surefire max candidate like Luka Doncic or Trae Young, players hold very little leverage when it comes to rookie negotiations. That sounds harsh, but there is a reason why only 111 players have been extended since the 2003 draft class, an average of 7.4 players per season.
The Suns are not negotiating against the other 29 teams this offseason, and there is no single team that has cap space waiting to sign Deandre Ayton or Mikal Bridges to an offer sheet. While taking a conservative approach is smart, one thing that Phoenix can ill afford is to draw a line in the sand on negotiations.
The Suns have invested three years of development with both players, and if Chris Paul is extended to a new contract, ownership will be sending a clear message that it is willing to pay a substantial cost for winning, even if that means paying a premium for Ayton and Bridges.
Let's look at what the rookie extension negotiations could look like, starting with the former No. 1 pick.
Deandre Ayton
The playoffs showed why the Suns should invest in Ayton, who averaged 16.0 points and 12.1 rebounds and shot 67.6% from the field in the postseason. He had 15 double-doubles, including a 19-point, 22-rebound performance in a Game 4 win against the Clippers.
In the regular season, per nba.com, Ayton ranked third in screen assists per game (behind Domantas Sabonis and Rudy Gobert), fifth in contested two-point shots and seventh in rebounding percentage. He is a big reason the Suns went from 17th in defensive efficiency last season to sixth in 2020-21.
Although his shots per game decreased by nearly five (from 14.9 to 10.0), the Suns were 9-2 in regular-season games in which Ayton registered more than 14 field goal attempts.
The rules of a rookie extension prevent Ayton from signing a five-year extension unless it is for the maximum salary allowed: $168 million. Will Phoenix be willing to commit to the same type of max extension that Bam Adebayo, Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Davis signed previously?
While the $28 million cap hit in 2022-23 would be deemed as an overpay, the back end of the contract is likely to be team friendly because the NBA is set to get an infusion of national television money in 2024-25. Ayton's $33.5 million salary in 2024-25 would be $5 million less than the projected max salary in that season.
While the goal for Ayton should be a max extension, what happens if the Suns offer a four-year, $112 million contract but with a player option in year four? Such an extension would be the largest for a former first-round pick who did not sign a max before his fourth year.
Would Ayton bet on himself and play out the season or is walking away from $112 million in guaranteed money and the option to become a free agent in 2025 too great of a risk? If there is no extension, Ayton will become a restricted free agent in 2022 and has a one-year, $16 million qualifying offer as an insurance policy if there continues to be a stalemate.
Mikal Bridges
If there is one extension candidate not named Doncic or Young who should come off the board in early August, it is Bridges. While non-max extensions are not common in the early days of free agency, Bridges has proved his value in his first three seasons. He has not missed a single game to an injury, is regarded as one of the better 3-and-D players and this past season has seen his overall offensive game develop.
This past season, Bridges ranked eighth among small forwards in overall real plus-minus, fifth in defensive real plus-minus and fourth in win shares with 8.98. The Suns would be smart to overpay Bridges (four years, $100 million) but with the trade-off of not giving Bridges a player option in the last year of the contract.
In December, Toronto Raptors forward OG Anunoby signed a four-year, $72 million contract but with a compromise that the forward could become a free agent after the third year as a result of a player option.
Cameron Payne
The journey of Payne is considered one of the great success stories in the NBA right now.
In the six-year span since he was drafted by Oklahoma City in the lottery, Payne was traded to the Chicago Bulls, signed two 10-day contracts with the Cleveland Cavaliers, failed to make it out of training camp with the Raptors and had a two-game stint in China before eventually signing to play in the G League.
After a strong, 15-game performance (23.2 points, 7.3 assists, 4.7 rebounds and shooting 48.6%) with the Texas Legends in the G League, Payne had to wait three months during the COVID-19 hiatus before the Suns signed him to a two-year, $2.1 million contract. Payne then shined in the Florida bubble, averaging 10.9 points in 22.9 minutes as Phoenix went 8-0.
"It's just thinking your job can be gone," Payne told NBA.com of his mentality. "It hit me in the face already. I got hit with that reality check, and I don't want to not be in the league."
The work ethic and perseverance has turned Payne from a journeyman to one of the more reliable backup point guards in the NBA.
In 60 regular-season games in 2020-21, Payne averaged 8.4 points and 3.6 assists, shot 48.4% from the field and 44% from 3, and was a +3.0 when he was on the court. With Chris Paul nursing an injured shoulder, Payne averaged 13 points in the first-round series win over the Los Angeles Lakers.
Payne is an unrestricted free agent this season, and although he only played eight games in 2019-20, he has early Bird rights because he signed a two-year contract. The early Bird provision allows Phoenix to sign Payne to the average player salary (up to approximately $10.7 million) without having to use part or all of the $9.5 million midlevel exception. The contract has to be for a minimum of two years, and the second season cannot contain an option year.
According to ProFitX, the starting salary for Payne projects to be at $10 million, comparable to both the average player salary and the full midlevel exception.
If Payne does sign a three-year, $27 million contract, comparable to deal signed by Memphis Grizzlies guard Tyus Jones, Phoenix would likely end up paying the luxury tax for the first time since 2009-10.
Offseason cap breakdown
Team needs
Bench depth at point and shooting guard
Insurance policy at backup center
Resources to build the roster
The draft: first-round pick
The development of Jalen Smith
The non-basketball factor: living and playing in warm weather
Exceptions: $9.5 million midlevel, $3.7 million biannual and likely disabled ($4.25 million)
$5.8 million in cash to send or receive in a trade
Dates to watch
• Chris Paul has until Aug. 1 to opt in to his $44.2 million contract for 2021-22.
• Starting Aug. 3, the Suns can apply for a Disabled Player Exception for injured big man Dario Saric. The exception would be worth $4.25 million, and Phoenix can sign or acquire a player on a one-year contract.
Restrictions
• Paul cannot be traded until he exercises his option for 2021-22.
• Because of the first-round pick owed to Oklahoma City as part of the Paul trade, the Suns are not allowed to trade a future first until 2027. The pick owed to OKC is top-12 protected in 2022, top-10 in 2023, top-8 in 2024 and unprotected in 2025.
Extension candidates
• All-Star Devin Booker is the fourth player on the Suns' roster who is extension eligible. Booker has reached the three-year anniversary of the five-year, $158 million rookie extension signed in 2018. Although he still has three years left on the contract, the Suns can add an additional two years. The starting number in the extension is the lesser of 120% off his $36 million salary in 2023-24 or 35% of the salary cap in that year. Because Booker will reach 10 years of service in 2024 and can sign a five-year contract for 35% of the cap, it is unlikely that he would extend. The last day for Booker to sign an extension is the last day prior to the start of the 2021-22 regular season.
The draft
The Suns have their own first-round pick in 2021. Their second-round pick belongs to the Brooklyn Nets. While the previous trade with OKC prevents the Suns from trading a future first-round pick until their 2027 selection, Phoenix is allowed to trade the draft rights to the player it selects this year after making the pick.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Phoenix selecting in July:
No. 29 (own): Jaden Springer | PG/SG | Tennessee
Since taking over as general manager, James Jones has made three draft-night trades, all in 2019. The Suns moved back five slots (from No. 6 to 11) in a trade that saw them net Saric and the rights to Cameron Johnson. Phoenix also traded a 2020 first-round pick it was owed from the Milwaukee Bucks to the Boston Celtics for Aron Baynes and the draft rights to Ty Jerome (No. 24). The Bucks' pick turned out to be the last selection in the first round in 2020. Widely maligned at the time (and during the Orlando bubble), Phoenix traded T.J. Warren and the No. 32 pick to the Indiana Pacers for $1.1 million. The trade would eventually open up playing time for Johnson and Mikal Bridges.