Four games into the 2021 NBA Finals, this series is tied up, and the Larry O'Brien Trophy is still up for grabs. After the Suns won the first two games in Phoenix, the Bucks responded by holding serve in Milwaukee, meaning no road team has won a game yet in this series.
Let's take a quick look at the key trends that have helped the Bucks tie up this series, starting with the most important one: the rise of Milwaukee's MVP.
MORE: Giannis' clutch block in Game 4 gives NBA world LeBron 2016 vibes
Trend 1: Giannis in the paint
First impressions can be misleading. After he played one of his worst games of the postseason in Game 1, Giannis Antetokounmpo snapped back into form and single-handedly powered his team back into championship contention.
The biggest trend in these Finals has revolved around Milwaukee's best player, his health and his ability to control the most important place on the court: the paint.
As the series has played out, Antetokounmpo has rounded into form and asserted his interior dominance on both ends of the court. He made one of the greatest defensive plays we've ever seen in the Finals in Wednesday's Game 4, when he recovered and rose up to block a Deandre Ayton dunk with just 1:14 left, preserving a two-point Milwaukee lead. The Suns were 0-4 with Antetokounmpo as a primary defender in the fourth quarter, including 0-2 by Ayton.
On the other end of the court, if there's one "canary in the coal mine" stat that epitomizes Antetokounmpo's effectiveness, it's his dunks and layups. According to Second Spectrum, 73.8% of his made baskets this season were either dunks or layups. He was one of two players in the NBA to average more than 10 attempted dunks/layups per game, along with Zion Williamson.
But in Game 1, the canary was wheezing. Limited by his recovery from the sprained knee that kept him out of the final two games of the Eastern Conference finals, Antetokounmpo attempted only six such shots, converting four of them, in the Bucks' 13-point loss. Milwaukee needed more from its MVP, especially at the rim, and he delivered. His impressive stat lines in Games 2 and 3 were fueled by interior production.
In other words, he's back. He now has the second-most points in the paint in a single postseason for any player over the past 25 seasons, trailing only Shaquille O'Neal in 1999-00, when he won his first title with the Los Angeles Lakers.
Trend 2: Middleton as the closer
Khris Middleton had been quiet for the first three games of the Finals, averaging under 20 points per game. That changed in Game 4, when Middleton scored a career playoff-high 40 points, 14 of which came in the fourth quarter.
While Antetokounmpo led the Bucks' defense to key stops in crunch time, Middleton took care of the offense, outscoring the Suns 10-4 by himself in the final 2:15 of Game 4. This is the second time this postseason he single-handedly carried the Bucks to victory down the stretch; he also did it in Game 3 against the Nets, outscoring Brooklyn 8-7 in the final 2:30. Middleton has made 15 game-tying or go-ahead baskets in the fourth quarter or overtime of playoff games this season, tying LeBron James, who had 15 in 2007, for the most such buckets over the past 25 seasons.
The Bucks have now had a player score at least 40 points in each of the past three games in this series, and if current trends continue, with Antetokounmpo and Middleton playing at these levels, Phoenix could be in big trouble.
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton are the 3rd pair of teammates (4th instance) over the last 50 years to each have a 40-point game in a single NBA Finals.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) July 15, 2021
The others are LeBron James/Kyrie Irving and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar/Magic Johnson. pic.twitter.com/SJJZkV6WCj
Trend 3: CP3's turnovers
Chris Paul has not been good enough in this series, and the Suns aren't going to win this title unless he cleans up his game, scores more points and turns the ball over less. He played one of his worst games of the season as both a playmaker and a shooter in Game 4. It was the first game this campaign, regular season or playoffs, in which he had at least five turnovers while shooting worse than 40% from the field.
As Paul heads into one of the biggest games of his amazing career, he is trending the wrong way at a critical time. His scoring production has decreased in every game this series, and the turnovers also are a concern. In a combined eight games in the Western Conference semifinals and finals (remember, he missed the first two games of the series against the LA Clippers while in COVID-19 protocols), he had only 13 turnovers. He has had 15 in Games 2, 3 and 4 of this series alone.
Make no mistake, Paul is the biggest reason this Suns team is in this position, but his mistakes have not just been out of character, they've been costly too. His gaffe late in Game 4, when he slipped and lost the ball, cost his team a chance to tie the game with under 30 seconds left and led directly to a layup at the other end that all but sealed the win for Milwaukee.
Paul has rightly earned the reputation as the conductor of efficient offenses for years, but the Suns had 17 turnovers and blew a nine-point lead in Game 4. While the Bucks are starting to see both of their biggest stars play well in big moments, the Suns can't say the same thing.
Trend 4: Suns' inconsistency
Devin Booker played one of his worst games of the postseason in Game 3. He scored just 10 points, his lowest output in any contest this calendar year. Phoenix needed him to play better if it wanted to win Game 4, and he did, coming out of the gate strong. Booker doubled his Game 3 scoring total by halftime on Wednesday, finishing with 20 first-half points. It was sorely needed, because no other member of the team could get anything going.
With Paul and Ayton unusually quiet, Booker used his whole bag to lift his team throughout Game 4, creating his own looks off the bounce and hitting pull-ups, fadeaways, floaters and layups against the best defenders Milwaukee could throw at him. Booker's hot first half bought his struggling teammates time to wake up. It was a nice bounce-back performance for the budding superstar, but it just wasn't enough. He was on an island out there; no other Suns player had more than 15 points.
If Phoenix is going to win this series, especially now that the Bucks' big two are playing well, the Suns are going to need coordinated greatness from their stars too. Paul and Booker have to be playing at the highest possible level at the same time for the Suns to win in Phoenix on Saturday. Otherwise, they'll be back in Milwaukee next week with their season on the line.