For the second time in the 2021 playoffs, the Milwaukee Bucks are down 2-0 in a series heading home. The last time that happened, they rallied to beat the Brooklyn Nets in seven games thanks in part to an injury suffered by Brooklyn All-Star Kyrie Irving in Game 4.
How can the Bucks do it again vs. the Phoenix Suns in the NBA Finals?
Let's take a look at three statistical trends from the first two games that have favored the Suns so far, and how Milwaukee might be able to turn them around heading home for Games 3 and 4.
It's a make-or-miss league ... and Finals
When the Bucks look back on the first two games of this series, I think they'll lament the missed opportunity of Game 1 more than the closer finish in Game 2. After all, Milwaukee lost the series opener despite outscoring Phoenix 48-33 beyond the 3-point arc, which has been atypical for the Bucks in this postseason.
Having struggled with turnovers and sending the Suns to the free throw line too often Tuesday, Milwaukee corrected those issues on Thursday. The Bucks had three fewer turnovers and seven more offensive rebounds than Phoenix, allowing them to both attempt more free throws (23-14, with nearly half of those Suns trips to the foul line coming in the final minute) and more field goals (93-88). Yet Milwaukee lost anyway, largely due to incredible Phoenix shot-making.
Granted, some of the Suns' 20 3-pointers -- tied for second most in an NBA Finals game -- were open catch-and-shoot opportunities, the result of the Bucks' overhelping early against Phoenix stars Chris Paul and Devin Booker. But the majority of Booker's seven 3-pointers were difficult attempts. All seven of them were considered "contested" by Second Spectrum's analysis of camera-tracking data.
Milwaukee particularly tightened up defensively in the second half, limiting the Suns to just five 3-point attempts from the corners after Phoenix got 12 in the first half -- the most against the Bucks in any half this season, per Second Spectrum tracking.
Overall, Second Spectrum's quantified shot probability metric (qSP), which factors player ability in addition to the location and type of shot and distance of nearby defenders, indicated Milwaukee got better shots for the second game in a row. Unlike Game 1, when the Bucks outshot the Suns but lost anyway, Phoenix dramatically outperformed its shot quality in terms of actual effective field goal percentage (60%), while Milwaukee (50%) underperformed the quality of its shots.
As a result, simply making shots -- and having the Suns make fewer of theirs -- would be the best adjustment for the Bucks going forward.
Giannis needs more help -- will he get it?
Don't blame Giannis Antetokounmpo for Milwaukee's struggles in scoring. After a modest first half of Game 2, the two-time MVP went off for a Finals-record 20 points in the third quarter, making five of his six shot attempts and getting to the free throw line an incredible 14 times. Antetokounmpo's overall 36.7 game score was his second best in a playoff game, trailing only Game 3 of last year's opening round against the Orlando Magic, a performance with slightly less at stake.
Remarkably, the Bucks outscored the Suns by four points with Antetokounmpo on the court in the first two games only to get smashed by 27 points in the 20.5 minutes their star has spent on the bench.
Given Antetokounmpo is still barely a week removed from a knee injury, it will be hard for head coach Mike Budenholzer to extend his minutes far beyond the 21:36 Antetokounmpo already played in the second half Thursday. When Antetokounmpo did leave the game briefly in the fourth quarter after cramping up, Phoenix immediately went on a 5-0 run, forcing Milwaukee to call timeout to get him back in the lineup.
Of course, the Bucks can also do more to help Antetokounmpo when he's on the court. The aggressive, confident play Milwaukee got from All-Stars Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton in his absence during the final two games of the Eastern Conference finals has been largely missing against a more difficult opponent in the Finals.
Although Middleton did have an enormous second half of Game 1, he's shooting just 40.5% from the field and 6-of-18 from 3-point range through two games. Holiday, who has been terrific defensively, has been even less accurate as a shooter. He's at 31% from the field and 1-of-7 from 3-point range.
The Bucks have to find some way to get both players going, and Holiday must be more focused as a finisher. He got 12 attempts inside the restricted area in Game 2, per NBA Advanced Stats, but missed seven of them -- disappointing for someone who shot 66% from that range during the regular season.
How shrinking rotations impact the series
As I've noted before this postseason, rotations tend to contract over the course of series as coaches settle on a handful of trusted players capable of matching the level of opposition. That process seems to be starting early in the Finals, aided by injury. Just six players on either side saw more than 13 minutes of action in Game 2.
It's clear that Budenholzer trusts six players above all others: his five starters and reserve Pat Connaughton, whose 34 minutes Thursday were his most in a playoff game. Milwaukee sorted through a handful of other players, with Bryn Forbes and Bobby Portis seeing short stints and Jeff Teague (12 minutes) actually the seventh man in the rotation.
Ideally, Budenholzer would spot his weaker defenders -- Forbes and Portis -- when the Suns have one of their star guards and center Deandre Ayton on the bench. However, those minutes, too, are becoming less frequent, as Phoenix sees the title within its grasp.
Suns head coach Monty Williams extended Ayton to 42 minutes with backup center Dario Saric sidelined by an ACL tear suffered in Game 1 and played his guards a combined 86 minutes, their highest total in any game this postseason.
Williams might yet have further adjustments in store for his rotation, depending on Torrey Craig's condition after the reserve wing left at the end of the third quarter with a right knee contusion and did not return.
Williams told ESPN's Malika Andrews he was comfortable going to Abdel Nader, who got rotation minutes late in the Western Conference finals to counter the LA Clippers' small-ball attack, but Nader didn't get back in until the final minute after he was on the court for one defensive possession alongside Craig.